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SomeguyfromTakomaPark

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Everything posted by SomeguyfromTakomaPark

  1. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Looking at the national radar it’s pretty close. Precip typically does move in and then out faster than modeled around here for whatever reason.
  2. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Actually looks really close to the GFS depiction IMO.
  3. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Everyone who is cliff jumping or will do so shortly let’s not destroy the thread with meltdowns. If you truly believe we’re cooked then there’s no reason to be posting anymore. For those who want to track, post observations, etc, carry on.
  4. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Yeah, I’m def in chips fall mode although I was always seeing this as a 2-4 deal with some potential upside. If we get shut out completely I’d be disappointed but I don’t see that. I still think the upside is possible, if we get that nice banding along the front it can drop 1-2 inch per hour rates.
  5. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    It will be interesting. It looks like the Reggie and GFS and Euro all give us the majority of our snow in a 3 hour ish period this afternoon.
  6. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Yeah this is a great run for all
  7. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    It is always wrong it seems but it sure does crank that coastal band over 95. That looks more like climo distribution of snow than the other models.
  8. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    The euros not finished smacking that thing around just yet. It’ll be a miss southeast by 6Z tomorrow.
  9. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Laser band like the 12z euro. We’re finally in the range where its opinion matters.
  10. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    My brother and I were playing ice hockey in queens in the courtyards between the row houses. That was insane.
  11. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    It’s def time to just let the chips fall, we know the general idea, we all know the local geography and climo. It’s going to snow let’s enjoy it.
  12. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    No need to sweat euro qpf, nothing has really changed for dc metro. Just the typical run to run variance. This has always looked like a 2-4 ish event with some boom potential upside. I still think the northern burbs probably get their 3-6.
  13. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Just coming back down to earth, coming into consensus with everything. I don’t think 6+ for the majority of Maryland was ever going to happen. Still a great run for pretty much all of us.
  14. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Love how far south that 2-4 zone goes. Lotta wiggle room.
  15. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Yes, why not?
  16. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Don’t trust that the euro, or anything, will nail that skinny band placement, but I love seeing it hand wave the the temp issues….illustrates the boom potential even into the metros.
  17. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Probably too close in for the GEFS but it shifted the 4 inch snow probabilities southeastward.
  18. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Maybe it's just cause things have been working for us this winter the vibes feel different. If we were looking at this scenario in other years I'd be doom posting about our sloppy inch. It'll be interesting to track the progress of the cold front in real time tomorrow. If I wake up tomorrow and it's 12 degrees in Pittsburgh we should be good, if it's 25 we're probably cooked.
  19. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    It seems like guidance is finally converging now and it puts DC right on the edge. Big boom/bust potential with the forecasting but I think DC gets snow even in the bust scenario. I'd go 2-4 for DC proper now but I would not be surprised to see us end up with 1-2 or even 5-6.
  20. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Maybe. This winter seems to be built a little different though. It’s only 36 now at my house, it’s not 52 waiting for a 20 degree drop.
  21. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Oh wow 6Z looks good for moco up to Baltimore. Let’s lock this in.
  22. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Yeah I dunno I’m not too worried. It might trend west but not far enough we get shut out I don’t think. Just want some accumulating.
  23. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    lol they were talking “full euro cave to rgem” in the New England forum and I was thinking we got rained on. I guess they were referencing further in the storms development. That looks fantastic for us, thanks for posting.
  24. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    3K starts the snow around 7am and doesn’t wind it down til after 7pm, would be a nice full snowy day.
  25. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    If the Euro AI puts out like 30 consecutive steadfast runs only to be clowned by the RGEM a few days before that model is going in the doghouse. But seriously I just can’t get on board with these juicier more amped GFS and RGEM when the euro is showing something else. I’ve seen this movie before.
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