SomeguyfromTakomaPark

We all know the drill, when the GFS is showing a big storm without support in a marginal airmass, it’s most likely not correct. But hey, u never know!!

Euro is close but without cold air we’re relying on the storm bombing out in the right spot to bring in enough cold air, like the GFS shows.

There is shockingly good agreement in the operational models for the January 18/19 storm for 200+ hours.

Very close for 150+ hours, changes will happen. We’re in the game.

156 looks soooo close to what we need!!

Really close to going boom here, I like the trends.

ICON gonna be so close, need that trough to go negative a little earlier but yeah we're in the game.

That looks good!

Close enough to keep me interested, that's for sure. Yesterday I was talking about punting this window but today has got me back interested.

GFS does look like it wants to spin something up in the Gulf around hour 170....if the trough goes negative after that could be game on.

Yeah, hopefully we can get what the ICON is showing! Perfectly timed phasing and trough axis that results in us being just cold enough to snow.

12z GFS not interested in dropping that energy through the Rocky's and phasing like the ICON does.

It's still early but I feel like it's probably time to punt the Jan 15 window. I guess if a storm perfectly bombed out at our latitude we could maybe get a paste bomb but its like 40 degrees in Montreal during the window. Not a good sign when the freezing line is north of the Adirondacks.

With this kind of setup, marginal air, we need everything to break just right with the phasing and even if it does it might just favor the NW areas. With that in mind it's good to keep expectations very in check. After the period for this potential storm it looks like most ensembles have us returning to seasonal or cooler than average temps, perhaps we get a wave then as well.

Pretty decent agreement between ICON, GFS, and CMC of some vorts flying around the *could* get us a coastal storm. The problem is coming outta our torch there isn't much cold around.