SomeguyfromTakomaPark

It’s so tantalizing to have a 978 that close to us when we’re in a massive outbreak…

The confluence backed north a little at hour 54, maybe a little less suppressive ?

This is what I liked about the EPS this morning, the 90 hour 6-he qpf map has beefier precip further west into southern va and western nc.

Basically you and I think are in the same boat to some extent, we need to hope the GFS is right and then bump it north 50-100 miles. Maybe that is a miracle I’m asking for lol.

Yeah I think if it looks the same tomorrow then we’re in the “we need a miracle” stage, but for now still in the game.

I think today is the day for me where we need to see the trends continue towards us. Hopefully we can get some at 12z! Still right at the edge of the time frame where we can get a decent shift north on the guidance.

CMC bombs the low to 951 once they merge.

At least this storm it’s more clear what we need to see at 500. Last storm our ability to tell if a run was good or bad was like zero until the surface maps dropped of the actual storm.

NAM looked like it was about to crush us. so I went and looked on southernwx and it appears one guy downloaded 6 of the 68 member weathernext ensemble before the download glitched. He says all 6 look good for their region and the latest one he posted looks like a blizzard for us.

Oh lord that can’t possibly be the mean is it???

lol we are asking ai to tell us about ai models. What a world!

There is some pretty interesting discussion in the New England forum about this. I’ve been reading Mets in there since the models lost this yesterday explaining why it would come back. They seem pretty confident it’s not done trending.

I’ll be really interested to see those plots. What’s good for the south, to some extent, is probably good for us.

For some reason I’m feeling that way too, we’ll see!

It’s just not that far from a big storm for us, no reason to jump ship completely.