SomeguyfromTakomaPark

This place is infinitely better than any form of social media. I hope it never dies.

That’s the 12z run he posted, 18z is better.

UK also says no thanks....it would've been nice to get any model on board with the Euro.

Per the Euro it is Friday morning. 10am-5pm type deal. Nice daytime snow.

Looking at a blend of GFS, Euro, NAM, CMC, Euro AI, ICON you get temps like 26-31 for DC metro area. That is a great sign IMO. We do best when we're not waiting for dynamic cooling. I like a good entrenched cold air mass.

This system in Feb or March coming in at 10am would most likely be white rain even if it were cold.

It’ll be cool to get some snow in minimal sun angle season. None will be wasted.

Big broad area of accumulating snow! Cold temps! Let’s go!!

Decent model agreement of a low amplitude shortwave moving across the southern Mid-Atlantic Friday as high pressure retreats offshore. Uncertainties arise in how far north the precipitation will make it. Almost all ensemble and deterministic guidance has enough cold air in place to favor all snow in our FA should moisture make it this far north. There are a few outliers that have rain across the far S of the FA. FWIW, snow and ice has trended up slightly over the past couple of runs. While amounts are forecast to generally be light (an inch or two, perhaps three should a higher end solution verify), the northward shift is notable. Looking at clusters featuring the greatest variance (EOF) regarding amplitude does suggest additional northward expansion is possible. Just something to keep in mind.

Very close, at least we have some pre Christmas potential, that is more than we can say a lot of years.

12z ICON says no dice for Friday. No precip close to us.

12z NAM looks great for a light event!

Euro and euro AI sucked with this event btw, Euro Ai ensemble snow output had dc with like 5 inches up until a few days ago.

It’s a nice heavy rain though at least, been dry AF maybe we can carry the trend of more qpf into winter storm season.

That looks pretty nice, very cold for early December.