SomeguyfromTakomaPark

SE of 95 4-8 DC 6-10 NW 8-14 Seems like a pretty easy call and if DC gets 4 inches of snow and a bunch of sleet that'll seem like 6-10 anyway based on impact.

NAM is a little faster which I actually like, let's get all this precip in here before we lose thermals.

Normally with our phasing storms its reasonably clear how the ridge axis, timing of phasing, heights out in front, will affect the outcome but with this one it's been really hard to guess.

Watching the NAM come out having no clue if the changes at 500 are good or bad.

That's one thing I love not seeing on the models. The absolute worst thing the models can show is the WAA precip going north to PA and we don't get anything. In this situation it appears we will most likely get the WAA precip even if things shift either north or south.

Yeah, agree. We should be able to get a warning level snow even if the north creep continues. Which is great! We go years without warning level snows...

Yeah I wonder how accurate these ptype algos are? Tons of freezing rain on these things....

AI is 0.4 QPF by 12z and then 0.8 by 18z in DC. Changeover in between, implies about 6-10 inches in DC with ratios. Kinda the lower end of what guidance has been showing but acceptable nonetheless.

Most of our area is 0.8-1.0 QPF before a change on crazy uncle ukie so pick your ratio! Could be a foot with decent ratios IMO.

This is a QPF bomb so it is possible we get a foot of snow AND a ton of sleet. If we change over quicker maybe 6-8 inches and then sleet. Nothing is showing less than 6 inches of snow before a changeover. The later the changeover, the more we can pile up.

Pretty good agreement between GFS op and Euro op for 10 days out!

Agree, nothing is showing less than 0.5 QPF before a change over and ratios should be decent or better.

You're in a good spot for this one. I hope you get 18 inches. I'll be happy with my 6-10+ plus ice.

It's basically 8-10 for everyone and then a bunch of sleet and freezing rain.

AIGFS has the primary in WV vs. legacy GFS Georgia/Alabama border. What's 800 miles between friends lol?