Powerball

This needs to stop yesterday. If I wanted to use space heaters in April, I would move back to Michigan.

Just awful... We're practically into April, not mid-January!

Well damn!!! 000 FXUS62 KFFC 180835 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 435 AM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018 As vigorous shortwave moves east over TN valley, broad and unusually strong westerly flow to the south remains in place. In my experience with severe weather forecasts both here and in the southern plains, this pattern has a great deal of potential to produce atypically high instability and very strong deep vertical wind shear with supercells the dominant mode. It has been over a year since this area has seen supercell storms of this magnitude (Jan 22 2017). Large hail and a few tornadoes will be likely. Given MLCAPE values 2000-2500 J/kg and 0-6km bulk shear of 60-70kts, hail will likely be much larger than the Jan 2017 event with sizes of 2 to 3 inches likely. If there is a bright side to this story, it could be the low level shear, 0-1km bulk shear is only progged of 30-35kts. This is still quite strong and should be sufficient for a few tornadoes, but unlikely to see the larger /long-tracked tornadoes that we saw with the Jan 2017 event or other notable supercell-based tornado events and outbreaks. Interestingly, CIPS top 15 analogs based on 00Z NAM valid 00Z Tue do not contain any events in the last 10 years, so could be some analogs with lower storm report density and thus lower analog probabilities. Top analogs is Apr 3 1998 which produced widespread hail over north GA but other dates have hit or miss coverage of reports and not too many tornado events though there area some. Other bright side of supercell events is that coverage/probability of any point seeing severe storms will be lower than with linear events. Not something you want to take a chance on however, plan accordingly. Have kept PoPs closer to guidance and perhaps lower with mainly 40-60pct Monday afternoon and evening. Will certainly keep a close watch on this and will continue with steady pace of impact briefings.

The latest GFS brings the heat back by mid-month (after a brief "cool down").

Wow! As of today, few trees are already blooming. Crazy!

BTW, I think this weather is (at least partially) tied to positive feedback from the worsening drought in TX / OK / NM...

Already beginning to see buds show up on the trees. The air no longer has that "winter" feel to it for sure.

I'm in Newnan, GA. I'm originally from Detroit, so I was honestly kind of hoping for a warmish / snowless winter for a change. The "once in 25 year" snow that occurred here would be a run-of-the-mill snow event there.

Of course it depends on one's specific location, but at least here, we had the one of the worst snow/ice storms in 25 years (bearing in mind we only average 1" of snow for an entire season) and ended up 3*F below normal for the month The last 1/3 of the month was ok, but it didn't make up for the majority of days featuring double digit negative departures during the first 2/3 of the month.

REally looking forward to the Spring-like weather after the extremely cold / snowy January. Could get up into the 70s here today, despite the clouds / rain.

I'm seeing Sleet. Temps aloft are too warm for snow.

It's still ended up pretty good, but not as good as the initial frames suggested. The QPF in the cold sector dropped off somewhat.

NAM started out good, then it crapped out as thing shifted out of AL.

Looks like all of the models are starting to narrow in on amounts between 2-3" here, which would be impressive if it happens.

You guys can blame and/or thank me for the snow. I brought it down with me from Detroit. You're welcome.

Yeah, that's why I'm targeting Dallas.

Will likely book a room in downtown Dallas in 2024. No road trip this time though.

Heck, how many people can say they saw 2 Eclipses in their lifetime?

After the Elizabethtown construction, got caught in Cincinnati and Dayton's rush hour for about an hour. Did drive through two heavy downpours as well (one in Louisville and one south of Toledo). Otherwise, had no problems getting home.

left nashville at 9am ct, was smooth sailing on I-65 until elizabethtown, ky where I hit construction traffic.

Still debating if I should take the interstate or country roads back to avoid construction. Either way will probably add an hour to my drive.

I would likely target Cleveland, but given my luck today in Nashville during an otherwise "perfect" time of year and "perfect" pattern, the bolded is a big concern.

I'm not leaving until tomorrow, but it's the construction that concerns me, both on I-65 in Elizabethtown, KY and I-75 in Cincinnati.

Yep, right over downtown Nashville. By the time it moved in / developed, it was too late to drive outside of it. At least we weren't screwed alone. Charleston, SC got ****ed also. Plus, there's always 2024.

Getting some typical diurnal CU overhead as we head into peak heating. Hopefully, they begin to mix out / diminish, or at least none of these clouds will block my view of the eclipse. :-P