Powerball
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Everything posted by Powerball
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The 18z HRRR may have been too dry, but the trend can't be denied. Even the 18z NAM came in notably drier. That said, the Detroit area still looks good for 3-6" total. To be fair, that's about what was expected all along before the really amped up runs reared their ugly heads. The big difference is much of the snow will come from the deformation axis and not WAA like originally expected.
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18z HRRR
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The jury is still out there. WAA snows have already underperformed, and model trends aren't looking good for the "main" show tonight/tomorrow. Prior to this system, they were still at a 11-12" departure.
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I know you're joking, but it's really been a mediocre winter for most of you in the subforum snowfall-wise. There's no point in making it a "tallest midget" competition.
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The 12z NAM has corrected significantly from the 06z run (although still not as impressive as yesterday's runs).
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Notable step down on the 06z NAM...
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Models are pretty much in 2 camps now for SE MI. One shows *ONLY* 4-6", and then there's the other camp that shows widespread double digit amounts. On the plus side, there aren't any duds.
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21z SREF plumes for DTW...
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'99 had a Blizzard Warning.
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They didn't think the expected snowfall total (1-3") was worth a WAA. They instead opted to cover it with a SWS.
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It appears the slow step back down to reality has begun with the 00z NAM.
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Roger Smith has spoken...
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There didn't appear to be any observations of snow at the NWS sites out that way as of 4pm CT
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5pm now and still no AFD. I can only figure it's a doozy, lol...
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18z GFS is an improvement from the 12z GFS run.
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18z ICON is more amped / NW though.
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To be clear, I know there's virtually no chance of the 3km 18z NAM happening (it doesn't even jive with how the upper levels look). But got damn, it is some nice eye candy...
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This of course excludes WAA snows...
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That 3km 18z NAM is quite nice for Detroit. Full-blown blizzard. EDIT: Flying home-worthy
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It's not just the snow totals either, but there will also be significant blowing/drifting and fairly high rates. Considering that, an argument could be made for an impact-based WSW despite snow totals possibly falling short of the technical threshold. But that debate is a whole 'nother can of worms, especially with the recent changes to the criteria that have been rolled out.
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HRRR is finally coming back to earth with the 18z run.
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It was still a decent snowstorm for the Detroit area (just not a big dog)
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12z UKMET has taken a step back from the amped runs yesterday. It looks more like the GGEM now.
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Severe weather easy to predict? *Laughs in Southern Plains under DFW's cap of steel*
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12z NAM will also continue to be amped / NW...
