Powerball

How can you tell when the RGEM only goes through 84hr?

18z NAM did come a bit further SE.

The real shocker is that IND has pulled the trigger on Winter Storm Watches.

Wirh the trough not digging as much and a slower negative tilt, it makes sense.

FWIW, the 12z EURO and GGEM would still be a decent event (4-6" with blizzard conditions). That's not too bad, especially in time for Christmas.

Weird 12z EURO run, but it ended up being a modest hit for a lot of folks.

The main trend with all the models the past 24 hours that the trough is ejecting more slowy and not digging as far south, thus the somewhat weaker but further west solutions we're starting to see. The main impact this will have is whether the storm wraps up quickly enough to become a major event for most in the subforum, or does it revert back to being a glorified arctic front, which is what was advertised before we started seeing these weenie runs.

I remember when the GFS had an Atlanta / Charlotte crusher.

Congrats MSP!

^^^This will age like milk by the weekend...

We already know the 84hr NAM (in its typical fashion) is going to be a MSP special, lol...

So everyone in Chicago, Milwaukee and MI/OH/IN now know who to blame for their rainer...

Wouldn't throw in the towel yet, even for the Ohio Valley. For one, this storm is still several days out (so plenty of time for more shifts). Also, a fair number of the ensembles still have a track across the eastern lakes. But in addition, we know the models have had the tendency to be way too cavalier with how far west and how strong these systems get at this time frame. This storm could of course break that trend given the upper level features at play, but it's still something to keep in mind until we're closer in.

Pretty decent jump west in fact. Has deform snows well into Iowa and a 1005mb low in Missouri.

Looks like the 00z GFS is going to end up even further west.

With the recent advent of the Snow Squall Warning, there's even less incentive to issue a Blizzard Warning for those short fuse events such as 2/11/03.

CLE has the friction off Lake Erie to enhance the wind there, and of course even if they miss out on the synoptic snow, they're bound to make up for it with LES.

It's still early. There will be plenty more shifting (in track & intensity) with this system yet to come.

March 2008 (for one example)?

One thing to consider with this storm is with the upper level low possibly closing off and maybe a decent trowal setting up, there will be good convective instability in the cold sector. So despite the wind fracturing dendrites some, the snowfall rates should be enhanced and there will likely be some aggregation of snowflakes near the transition zone, which should both aid in relatively efficient accumulation.

Would be one for the history books in Detroit, for sure...

There was definitely a sharp drop off in amounts/impact from east to west with February 21st - 23rd storm. The areas along the Detroit river into SW Ontario were hit the hardest.

And given 45 years of aging, I'd like to think the power lines (which are mostly above ground) and transformers are a lot more precarious in the Detroit area these days.

We're talking about 2 different events. I'm thinking of February 21st-22nd, 2003.

Correction: 958mb just north of Toronto. Basically a poor man's 1978, haha!