Powerball

Yep.

I'm assuming by "large hail," they meant severe-criteria hail...

The early initiation with the front surging southward faster than expected, as well as the lack of surface heating beforehand (since we were socked in low clouds), kind of did DFW in as far as not realizing the full potential with this setup.But it does seem there were plenty of low-end severe hail reports in the northern suburbs (quarter to half-dollar size) thanks to ample elevated instability and vertical shear. So while underperforming, not a total bust.Also, lightning just struck a transformer here and the power was out for about 15 seconds (it's back on now)

Managed an intra-hour high of 90*F today at DFW, 8th day of the season.

Even if it did, it was still likely too little too late to spare Greenfield from extensive damage.

That thing is/was definitely quite elevated. DFW and DAL both picked up little (if any) precip from it, and it had virtually no impact on surface temps.

The atmospheric recovery in Des Moines has been nothing short of incredible.

Got a "little engine that could" trying its damndest right now just east of FW...

On the plus side, this is the time of year to get as much of it in as you can, before we get into the dog days of Summer...

They did at least get the precipitation forecast right, lol...

Definitely wasn't on my bingo card for today...

FWIW, despite all of the precipitation, DFW is still on track for a top 10 warmest Spring on record. To-date, the temperature departure is 68.6*F, which as a matter of fact, ties with 2022... With respect to total rainfall at DFW, Spring 2024 isn't even close to cracking the top 10 wettest list (*ONLY* 15.85" to-date)...

Another difference between 2012 and this year is that April, for once, was actually above to well above average temp-wise.

This is me being pedantic of course, but it should go without saying the extremely saturated ground from excessive rainfall this Spring (this has been one of the rainiest starts to the year in Houston's history) definitely made the extent of the damage worse than it might have been with all of the large trees and power lines that were easily uprooted.

00z GFS in particular is looking quite torchy for the Southern Plains starting this weekend through the end of May. Obviously the models will continue to struggle with the exact details over the next several days and potential MCS along the edges will complicate things the further north one is, but with a deeply -PNA and the MJO headed into Phase 4, the signal pattern-wise for that well-advertised Mexican heat ridge to expand/settle NE is definitely there. And with it in all likelihood being a dirty ridge, it's going to be an oppressively muggy one too (similar to last June). For the folks down in South/Central Texas, better savor the last of your widespread rain / cloud cover chances this week while you can...

As usual, there's that cap... The sounding actually looks less impressive than it did this morning.

And there is it. Tornado Watch in effect until 9pm...

There's definitely some empirical evidence to support a eastward shift (towards Dixie Alley) over the past few decades

And that's what the latest warning in Wise County calls for (Tennis Ball Size Hail).

I think I know where they're going with this, but for now, they only issued a Severe T'Storm Watch for the northern 2 row of Texas Counties. I'm thinking it's going to be a Tornado Watch for everyone else (we'll find out soon).

That one cell moving into Jacksboro is currently warned for Golf Ball Size Hail.

Will just have to keep an eye on the radar trends at this point. A watch (Severe Thunderstorm) is incoming...

The last few runs of the HRRR, which has the most bullish of all the Hi-Res models for DFW, seem pretty consistent with keeping the severe activity south of I-20 and west of I-35.

No.