Powerball

^^^A little too hasty...

That cell near Beaver Dam is looking pretty gnarly on the most recent frames...

Looking good, y'all...

100*F is not going to happen today at DFW due to the poor mixing heights (dewpoints pooling into the low 70s). Even breaking the record high of 95*F seems questionable after temps so far topped out at 94*F before dipping back down to 90*F as of 2pm.

Definitely wouldn't be fine if I lived in Ohio...

^^^Fine with me!!!

Obviously it's going to be modified for this subforum, but the warmer temps are definitely on track for next week as the Omega Block finally breaks down (which is typically how temps respond with the strong subsidence in its wake). In fact, a record high of 101*F (you read that right, not a typo) is forecasted here on Wednesday, with 90s expected all next week starting Tuesday. That said, in the mean time, looking at a mostly cloudy weekend on the western fringe of the ULL with highs in the 70s.

That extremely late-in-the-season PV split during early April kind of helped to reset the pattern from what was looking to be a torchy Spring (after the unusually warm/dry March). That said, there are early indications of a transition to more heat/ridging by mid-month.

^^^Nasty work...

Probably won't be as cool as the 500mb map suggests, FWIW. But yeah, will suck for severe weather prospects outside of possibly the Southern Plains.

It's definitely a thread the needle kind of setup with decent bust potential. Part of the problem (which the CAMs are likely picking up on) is that the better ascent/forcing will start to peel away by late afternoon/early evening before convective temps are achieved. There is, however, a 6 hour window from 18z to 00z though where sky's the limit if everything aligns just right.

DET wasn't nearly as bad as has been the last 2-3 years. If anything, it was often a hair cooler than DTW...

DFW overachieved by a few degrees with a high of 88*F today.

And the record was tied with an intra-hour high...

You have my condolences...