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LakePaste25

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  1. LakePaste25
    Should see that -PDO continue to weaken into the Fall as the CTKW’s move north along the west coast and the upwelling from the california current weakens as the N Pac high begins to take a beating.
  2. LakePaste25
    Important to note though, those mid atlantic blizzards happened because you were able to get PV lobes dropping south from the Hudson’s and phasing. Even if this did not show up in the post season mean. One of the issues during super Ninos you tend to get too much warm air/ridge bridging in Canada for these PV lobes to really set up to begin with.
  3. LakePaste25
    This is true, but tropical convection isn’t decided by absolute SSTs alone. It’s relative to global mean tropical SSTs. Assuming the negative SSTAs materialize in the W pacific, the gradient between the negative SSTAs and the 30C waters shifted east of the dateline is what matters. You can’t really use 2016 or 2024 as an analog for this because such a gradient did not exist, and thus the convection was still present well west of the dateline. If the CFS does not materialize, and the W pac SSTAs are not below normal or closer to normal, then there’s a stronger argument for more persistent convection well west of the Dateline.
  4. LakePaste25
    The CFS is starting to catch on to the idea of this event running its course (just like 97-98) with W pac cool anomalies showing up. This would be the first time in over a decade that we’ve seen this to a significant degree.
  5. LakePaste25
    I don’t think anyone here is saying it’s not going to snow, or that there won’t necessarily be a big storm. But I think it’s an easy call that next winter will be both warmer and wetter than the previous 2 winters on the coastal plain. Here on the Great Lakes, probably warmer and drier.
  6. LakePaste25
    Preliminarily, I think this event lands between +3.2 to +3.7 on the RONI. I will adjust accordingly as we get closer to October.
  7. LakePaste25
    Not to mention, -PDO usually works against cold and snow. Funny that it’s magically now something that we want lmao.
  8. LakePaste25
    Yeah, the cooling W pac kicking off trades and loss of equatorial ocean heat to the atmosphere always argues for this whenever we go super nino IMO.
  9. LakePaste25
    Yes, but they’re likely to be more correct this year, since the event will be so strong that it overwhelms all other competing signals. Broken clock rule.
  10. LakePaste25
  11. LakePaste25
    Can’t wait to pull the ERA-5 data next month on the Southern Pacific low for July. Could be the deepest we’ve seen it (relatively) in awhile.
  12. LakePaste25
    Important to note that this El Niño event will remove a lot of heat from the oceans (and into the atmosphere) if it materializes as record-breaking. This is one of the reasons why El Nino doesn’t preclude a strong La Niña, and ENSO itself acts more like a damped nonlinear recharge oscillator.
  13. LakePaste25
    Seems counterintuitive because wouldn’t heat being released in the tropics combined with a cold arctic strengthen the N Pacific low due to a greater contrast?
  14. LakePaste25
    Yeah which makes sense. It lags both from warmth going bottom-up in the tropics via instability/upper level divergence and from planetary scale baroclinicity aloft, which seasonally strengthens in late NH summer and early fall as the Arctic cold pool begins to develop.
  15. LakePaste25
    The lack of H5 over the central equatorial pacific does indicate a skew towards La Niña the last 20-30 years, which could also be contributing. I don’t have the research handy, but climate models argue that more frequent La Niña will not be the case long term. Possibly a temporarily aberration the past couple of decades. We are probably due for a major decadal regression the other way. Not necessarily right now, but it could happen eventually.
  16. LakePaste25
    IMO, I think of the PDO like snow cover. If a large area has deep snow cover (or lack thereof), it can enhance (or weaken) a polar high, which can impact an individual storm track. But it can only do so much. If you have a cutter going into ORD, snow cover in new england or the mid atlantic won’t stop it from cutting. And over time, as we know, those repeated cutters will weaken the snow cover. So think of the super Nino as the pattern driving the cutters, and the -PDO as the snow cover. The super Nino will continuously override it over time with a zonal jet until it flips to +PDO. I know this is not a perfect analogy because El Niños mean less cutters literally. But you get the idea.
  17. LakePaste25
    They exist on Tropical Tidbits, but they’re smoothed 5 day means. World view.
  18. LakePaste25
    Jet extension is going full steam in the southern hemisphere winter, with copious amounts of snow in the Andes:
  19. LakePaste25
    Entire basin looks pretty favorable for development into August. Makes sense with the Hadley cell out in the central pacific. While I think the Eastern Pacific has the highest chance of above normal ACE due to the +PMM you mentioned, I think the basin as a whole has a chance to be above normal in all 3 regions.
  20. LakePaste25
    Jan/Feb look like the -WPO Nina pattern, but flipped.
  21. LakePaste25
    I mean this goes into the discussion with @40/70 Benchmark that past super Ninos were not torches for the Northeast due to “clean forcing” as in, less competing Nina-like convection in the Maritime Continent. It used to be more of a torch signal for the upper Midwest. Only modern super Ninos have been torchy in the NE.
  22. LakePaste25
    Yeah I don’t think the Hadley cell will just park at 120W all winter. Kind of like what Snowman is showing in the Hovmoller above, I can see it wobbling 30-50 degrees in the mean.
  23. LakePaste25
    It already is in South America. Chile is getting slammed in the short-medium range models.
  24. LakePaste25
    yeah there’s a solid mid latitude response happening in Chile. Nice mid latitude cell off the coast, extended pac/STJ and they’re getting blasted with rain and mountain snow. That’s what’s convincing me right now.
  25. LakePaste25
    Not ready to say it will never reverse. Maybe 10 more years of -PDO and I’ll start having those thoughts. The only thing that’s certain is the that the planet will be warmer. When it comes to everything else, weather can always feel like it’s in a permanent state until one day it isn’t anymore.
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