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LakePaste25

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Everything posted by LakePaste25

  1. LakePaste25
    I know @bluewave brings this up a lot, but I will forever be fascinated by the clean phase 8 pass through in January 2022. With all of the competing Nina forcing going on, I don’t know how we pulled that off especially during an actual Nina.
  2. LakePaste25
    I consider 2021-2022 to be an east-based La Niña.
  3. LakePaste25
    CRW is already at +1.2
  4. LakePaste25
    PV aside, if we can shift that warm pool east it’ll allow for some brief periods of -EPO/+TNH during jet retractions. We missed out on that during ‘23-‘24 because W pac forcing instantly reverted us to the canonical Aleutian ridge La Niña pattern whenever the jet retracted.
  5. LakePaste25
  6. LakePaste25
    So far this is preventing us from having a cooler summer. The summers of 1997, 1982, 1972 were well below normal here. We will see if this competing forcing will continue into the fall.
  7. LakePaste25
    why is snowman 5 posted? i dont see how busted warm calls are any different than metfan’s busted april snow maps. Are people that sensitive they can’t handle someone making warm forecasts?
  8. LakePaste25
    More like I want the W pac warm pool to completely shift east so we can have better synoptic snow the following winters. A mid +2c super nino that probably ends up with a warm winter anyway won’t do the job. Might as well go for the full historic, make this the sacrificial lamb and see if we can get good patterns the years after
  9. LakePaste25
    Ensembles really want to hang onto this W pac forcing too. Competing Nina influence for the foreseeable future.
  10. LakePaste25
    Hopefully CAD doesn’t ruin the Christmas torch. If its going to be mild or warm, I want BBQ and pool weather
  11. LakePaste25
    Good money if you can get it
  12. LakePaste25
    Can’t wait for the UAH spike. going to be a rough year for the deniers.
  13. LakePaste25
    Yes, most climate models have us getting more frequent el niño events in the long term. Major caveat though - it will likely take stronger events to overcome W Pac forcing/warm pool so more Ninos doesn’t necessarily translate to more Aleutian Lows 1:1.
  14. LakePaste25
    I do think we should still shy away from “recent nino events have featured a persistent W pac warm pool, so this one will too.” I think it’s a forecasting trap. Probably true that we deal with it much more frequently, but i don’t believe there’s enough evidence to suggest it’s a permanent feature. It’s very possibly we get clean canonical forcing by the fall. In fact I think we are on track to see that. It will just take stronger events such as this one to start seeing it.
  15. LakePaste25
    Yeah, same reason we differentiate between 1991-2020 normals vs absolute records. When we want to know a thermal pattern it’s helpful to use the 30 yr normals, but it doesn’t make sense to say “this heatwave is the biggest temperature departure on record” because it’s pretty arbitrary. We use absolute values for that.
  16. LakePaste25
    I mean aren’t mid latitude ridges expanding due to global warming regardless? The SE ridge is also getting stronger and more expansive despite La Nina’s being weaker on the absolute ONI scale…so I do not know if this is exclusive to RONI vs ONI.
  17. LakePaste25
    There’s different uses for both. If you’re comparing the Nino 3.4 to historical rankings or you want to see how much heat is being released into the atmosphere then yes, the absolute ONI should be used. But if you’re trying to measure a sensible mid latitude response then you would use RONI.
  18. LakePaste25
    Why would I even look at what models are showing next winter with more than a grain of salt when it’s only June? I am focused on how this is developing and summer analogs. I will check on that in October.
  19. LakePaste25
    Yeah but this shiny looking map says I’m going to have near normal temps 6 months from now in december in a record breaking super nino
  20. LakePaste25
    I imagine most of that will be rain, but there’s always the chance for a big snow storm just like in 15-16, 82-83, etc
  21. LakePaste25
    Looking at RONI, you can see a pretty clear and distinct El Niño and it’s only June!
  22. LakePaste25
    Latest Euro seasonal gets the enhanced coastal precipitation going as early as September.
  23. LakePaste25
    We can probably assume that the W pac warm pool will finally slosh east if those model output verify. You don’t get a +4C ONI Nino without it doing so.
  24. LakePaste25
    I agree, but verbatim the model run posted is not a classic +PNA/-EPO look that we tend to see in weaker Ninos. There may be periods of it, however which could be factored in the ensemble mean. I just wouldn’t take those blues in the South as “winter-like cold that supports snowfall most of the month.”
  25. LakePaste25
    Modelology vs meteorology. Where exactly is the cold air coming from if it’s all above normal north of Tennessee? It has to travel from somewhere on the way down right? Cold air can’t come from the pacific at California’s latitude. Which would mean at minimum, near or slightly below normal temps north of TN as it travels down? Yeah. i don’t buy wall to wall torch up here either. Maybe it’s 80/20, 70/30 or whatever. But the main reason that it’s blue in the South while dark red over the Great lakes is due to the uniformity of the airmass. 40s is well above normal for the Grest Lakes, but below normal for Louisiana.
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