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LakePaste25

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Everything posted by LakePaste25

  1. LakePaste25
    Yup. 15-16 is a good example of a super that starts out east-based before going basin wide approaching winter.
  2. LakePaste25
    Seriously, can we get out of the stone age and allow “x” links so we don’t need to change them to twitter for them to embed? I know this is possible because there are other invision forums that have updated to allow this.
  3. LakePaste25
    Anyone have any summer analogs for this (el nino standing wave competing with e atlantic/african standing wave)?
  4. LakePaste25
    Can really see how things start to diverge in terms of position of the warmest SSTa’s after December. With Nino 1+2 warmth (east-based), Jan and Feb are also warm. With Nino 3.4, the correlation starts to break in Feb. With Nino 4 (central to west pacific), it actually correlated to a cold Feb. So while December is universally expected to be mild regardless, whether we get a backloaded winter or near wall to wall torch is based on whether the anomalies are focused on the Eastern Pacific vs Central.
  5. LakePaste25
    CANSIPs shows lingering nina-like convection in the maritime continent, while the CFS shows a classic nino response that slowly propagates eastward into winter.
  6. LakePaste25
    Incredible how different the Jan 2016 cold shots were vs. the Jan 2024. Jan 2024 was much more Nina-like, and probably why there wasn’t a big snowstorm in the mid atlantic or NE. They both had the roaring southern stream like you’d expect for a Nino but mismatched at 500 mb heights.
  7. LakePaste25
    Interesting. 1972 was one of the coolest summers on record here.
  8. LakePaste25
    I imagine summer in the east will be on the milder, wetter, and more humid side
  9. LakePaste25
    I see it has some split forcing showing up with some lingering convection in the west pacific. Also appears to be more basin-wide. I agree - i think a +TNH outcome like that is probably overkill even if there’s split forcing.
  10. LakePaste25
    Correct, nothing publicly available as far as I know
  11. LakePaste25
    The new Conventional Observation Reanalysis that’s supposed to replace it only has the raw data available (https://nomads.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/data/nccf/com/core/) which is annoying since I haven’t found any custom built code that plots it yet
  12. LakePaste25
    14-15. Models went strong or super to begin with. But that one hinged on strong WWBs in the summer and early autumn that never materialized. This one is building much earlier.
  13. LakePaste25
    Crank up those lawnmowers
  14. LakePaste25
    One thing about using RONI vs. ONI is you have to be consistent. If you’re going to use RONI to say that the Nino isn’t going to be as strong, you also need to say that 24-25 and 25-26 were weak to moderate Nina’s, not neutral.
  15. LakePaste25
    23-24 reached super criteria based off of traditional ONI, which peaked at +2.1C for NDJ. Using the new RONI however, it peaked at moderate to strong.
  16. LakePaste25
    Agreed. La Nina’s generally being drier east of the appalachians would probably be a true statement however. Northern stream dominated systems that get shredded by the mountains.
  17. LakePaste25
    Correct, March 2012 probably becomes a once per generation event at most under 2C. Would need way more warming for that to even get a return interval of once per decade. Unfortunately for winter weenies, December 2015 style winter warm events do become far more frequent under 2C. Once per decade at least.
  18. LakePaste25
    The reverse of this also exists. A nino-style pacific jet extension that blasts warm air into Canada and the E US typically correlates to a weak +PNA.
  19. LakePaste25
    i’ll just agree to disagree that the weak nino classification itself matters more than the SSTAs. 18-19, 19-20 were also weak ninos. yea, i agree that weak ninos, on average, tend to have the favorable central pacific SSTAs that produces good winters for boston. also when i say “traditional standards” i’m referring to canonical east based.
  20. LakePaste25
    14-15 was hardly a nino and didn’t really fit the traditional standards of one (if it did then DCA would have had a far better season than BOS). the reason it was less of an analog IMO was because it had a warm pool spanning into Nino 4 and Nino 3.4 which really helps with late winter -epo development. just how i look at it, people can disagree here.
  21. LakePaste25
    one thing i learned is that every springlike warm pattern is just like Feb 2018 and March 2012. Every Nina is just like 1995-1996, and every Nino will be like 1976-1977, 2004-2005, and 2014-2015
  22. LakePaste25
    Sustained blizzard conditions (so far) at EWR.
  23. LakePaste25
    Who is ready for more winter at the end of March?
  24. LakePaste25
    cold arctic/warm mid latitudes pattern we saw back in 2020.
  25. LakePaste25
    yeah i agree with this. i might have recency bias but getting a somewhat cold and snowy march here tends to correlate to a warm april, and the other way around: 2025: torch in march, cold rainy april 2024: very late season cold/snowy after mid march, record warm april 2023: SSW leading to cold and snowy march, a stretch of very nice weather (including 80+ days) in april 2022: little snow in march, cool and rainy april the all-timer was of course the historic march 2012 warmth which caused record earliest leaf-out, then lead to multiple freezes in april that damages a lot of plants and other crops. i’d be happy with a repeat of spring 2024, but that was a strong nino.
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