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LakePaste25

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  1. LakePaste25
    Those blues in the South do not necessarily equate to winter-like cold that would be supportive of snow outside of the appalachians. The blues are also there because it’s very stormy with the strong extended pacific jet feeding into the active southern stream.
  2. LakePaste25
    The issue I do have with 97-98 is a lot of these wintery stretches were so marginal with 30-35 degree days. Factor in 2-3 decades of warming and you get the idea.
  3. LakePaste25
    Yeah I don’t expect a wall to wall pac jet extension the entire season, otherwise LAX might end up underwater. Looking at 97-98 here, there were a couple of 5-7 day wintery stretches in december, january maybe 1 week tops, and a couple more stretches in Feb and a couple more in March. Jan was the least snowiest at 9.5” while December had close to 30”. Feb/March 15-20” each. Below normal season but obviously not 0 or even top 10 lowest.
  4. LakePaste25
  5. LakePaste25
    The EPS in particular seems to have a westward lean on the OLR map, which would push the RMM mean into the COD. I see less of a signal of this on the GEFS.
  6. LakePaste25
    I think this is manifesting as a weakened mid latitude cell via destructive interference. The westward leaning convection results in downstream mid latitude trough, which then results in subsidence downstream of the trough. Where the subsidence is occurring, it competes with where we expect a mid latitude trough from Nino influenced convection over the equator. So the end result is generally a weakened aleutian low as it must compete from subsidence caused by upstream troughing. The long range GEFS starts to bring these troughs closer together, more of what we’d expect in a Nino with a broad mid latitude cell extending east of the dateline.
  7. LakePaste25
    I remember HM mentioning awhile ago that the 97-98 season came extremely close to a KU for the NE/Mid atlantic. I keep stressing that a 97-98 redux does not automatically mean “guaranteed low snow season” even for DC/PHL/NY.
  8. LakePaste25
    My opinion is the east based nature of 97-98 did not prevent a big snowstorm from occurring. 82-83 was east based and produced a big snowstorm in the northeast and mid atlantic, and 72-73 produced a big snowstorm in the south. So whether it is east based or basin wide such as 15-16, there is still usually an opportunity or two.
  9. LakePaste25
    Does the difference matter at that temp? 97-98 could’ve easily produced a blizzard just like 15-16. Maybe just less cold shots.
  10. LakePaste25
    this gave me a good laugh:
  11. LakePaste25
    It’s still notable that it could end up the warmest SST’s on record in that region. Maybe “strongest” is not the right word in terms of sensible atmospheric forcing.
  12. LakePaste25
    I remember it doing pretty poorly early on before the 23-24 nino. If i remember it had a ‘09-‘10 redux with the canadian and -nao block and broad mid latitude troughing in CONUS.
  13. LakePaste25
    To be fair, we are also putting a major dent in the warm pool, and the warmest waters are now between 160-170E with plenty of westerlies remaining in the forecast.
  14. LakePaste25
    Super Ninos aren’t always record warm for the NE unless you get that competing Nina forcing from the W pac warm pool. The typical way to get record warm temps here is via the SE ridge which ushers in subtropical air from the Gulf. Ninos don’t have this and instead typically usher in a pacific jet extension which floods the lower 48 with mild pacific air, and you have a raging southern stream bringing cool and stormy weather in the south. This pattern is usually record warm for the northern plains and Canada, but not the NE.
  15. LakePaste25
    can do these dumb warm vs cold wars in a banter thread? Seriously if you don’t like someone’s forecast or analysis you’re free to do your own and contribute to this thread.
  16. LakePaste25
    Curious to see the S hemisphere height anomalies for the ensembles. As they go into the cold season, are we seeing their counterpart to the deep Aleutian/GOA low? Asking because I don’t have access to good SH height anomaly ensemble maps.
  17. LakePaste25
    Getting (cautiously) more bullish that we see a classic Nino response and the W pac warm pool will not be as influential. The suppressed convection in the W pac, believe it or not, is actually being under modeled now.
  18. LakePaste25
    Pac jet came in stronger than expected in Feb 2024, which pushed the jet exit region well onshore over the western US. One of the few times we got true Nino forcing, we got too much of it.
  19. LakePaste25
    Yup but I’m still taking a wait and see approach because it can still respond between now and Oct. Zero complaints if I end up with a more Nina-like summer and it’s hotter and less rainy.
  20. LakePaste25
  21. LakePaste25
    Plenty of gas in the tank out in the west pac and Nino 4 regions to go higher too.
  22. LakePaste25
    Yup. To eradicate that W pac warm pool (which is what we want), we will need to maximize on this potential.
  23. LakePaste25
    Can’t wait for the “not a torch!!!” copium on twitter because it’s 45 and cloudy in nyc under a CAD setup while it torches everywhere else
  24. LakePaste25
    If you’re talking the difference between 97-98 and 15-16, I don’t think it matters as much as one might think it does in terms of winter prospects. 97-98 could’ve easily had a mid atlantic KU blizzard just like 82-83, 15-16 did. Maybe 15-16 had more cold periods, but that’s it. The reason we prefer a 97-98 outcome is because it will eradicate the W pac warm pool.
  25. LakePaste25
    Yeah Dec ‘97 vs. ‘15 were night and day especially for the high elevations of NE. There is a difference between mild pacific air from a jet extension and mild pacific air from a jet extension + subtropical Gulf flow from the SE ridge. The former (‘97) is serviceable.
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