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LakePaste25

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  1. LakePaste25
    I could see the euro seasonal close to being accurate if we see a full discharge of the W pac warm pool and muted MC forcing. This is probably why the Euro plumes are also showing ONI of +3C to +4C. These go hand in hand IMO (warm pool discharge and record breaking Nino).
  2. LakePaste25
    While it won’t be a wall to wall shutout and there will be cold shots & brief opportunities, I would expect a pac jet dominated winter.
  3. LakePaste25
    yuck. I like some summer heat so i’m genuinely glad I don’t need to endure the summers of the 70s and 80s Ninos. 50s in late june sounds awful.
  4. LakePaste25
    Martz is a fraud and routinely posts wrong information/data to spin a narrative. Berardelli is also wrong about the heat coming from the Nino
  5. LakePaste25
    Not even disagreeing with you or claiming you’re wrong just putting different theories out there
  6. LakePaste25
    Still fairly weak correlations (compared to winter). I think the +AO/+NAO is a bigger contributor to all of this mid latitude heat rather than a non-coupled Nino response (it’s coupled). I don’t think we’ve seen this lack of high latitude blocking in previous super Nino summers and it may not be related to how the Nino itself is developing. Could be something else going on here entirely.
  7. LakePaste25
    I think the sample size for pre-super Nino summers is simply too small. That rockies ridge is definitely coming from central pacific forcing.
  8. LakePaste25
    Eric Webb thinks it’ll be more east based than 15-16 but not as east as 97-98 FWIW.
  9. LakePaste25
    I think csnavy was hoping for a moderate Nino earlier this year before it was obvious that there wasn’t going to be? Don’t think snowstorm is being inferred here. Nobody can say whether there will be one or not
  10. LakePaste25
    maybe let’s get through this season before talking about *next year’s* La Niña again? i’m hardly ready to even talk about this coming winter yet although that is tough to avoid because it’s talked about daily here
  11. LakePaste25
    Latest CFSv2 is more indicative of a basin-wide event. Have to keep an open mind here because I think basin-wide is def on the table (not just east-based).
  12. LakePaste25
    But how much warmth can we say is because of “unusually strong MC forcing for a Nino”and not plain climate change? Every ridge these days seems to be record breaking. It’s not like it was 65-70 every day during the previous super Ninos - we had warmups during those too, but since we had a much cooler baseline, they did not set records. I just don’t think we can default to blaming the MC every time or pretend that MC forcing never existed at all during Ninos back then. This developing Nino also seems to lack a -NAO but since our sample size is pretty small it may be less correlated to begin with. I’ll agree that if this winter we see some major P4-6 activity like we did in 15-16 again then something is up. I’m just not ready to say it’s a permanent feature.
  13. LakePaste25
    The wave started near the Arabian Sea and has been slowly moving east into the MC. It has been destructively interfered with by the Nino and is only able to contribute when it reached the MC because the +AAM temporarily relaxed. Would the west pacific waters in 1997, 1982, 1972 have been cool enough at this point in the summer to stop this forcing? I disagree.
  14. LakePaste25
    Where are you seeing an EWB? Do you have any charts showing it?
  15. LakePaste25
    One key characteristic of an east based event is the thermocline has an even or even slightly downward slope from W to E which is what tends to shut down MC convection. Still sloping the other way although you can see may have turned the corner out near 120E. We will see if this propagates across or not. Even if this is east based, I am going to say the same thing which is mostly above normal winter with windows of opportunity for a KU event.
  16. LakePaste25
    That’s a good question. A warmer atmosphere can hold more water vapor (exponentially) but i’d think it also takes more to actually wring it out. The warmer SSTs certainly help with that. Intuitively i think the “magic number” would have to go up as it warms.
  17. LakePaste25
    This is all true but in theory, if you get much warmer SSTs to the east, it can generate conditions suppress convection to the west regardless if the SSTs to the west are “warm enough” for convection. It likely just takes stronger +ENSO conditions than before to achieve. I’m increasingly convinced we will actually achieve this (suppressed MC) with this event.
  18. LakePaste25
  19. LakePaste25
    I do think RONI matters here when you’re looking at how the W pacific SSTS can destructively interfere with things. Mostly because warm SSTAs everywhere also raise the “floor” of 500 mb GPH, so a negative relative anomaly in the W pac is probably sufficient in preventing the W pac from contributing to a rossby wave response (floor is high enough it’s not a ridge relative to GPH). Hope I’m making any sense when I theorize this. tldr: W pac is already becoming negative in relative terms which i think is “good enough” since height anomalies are also relative in terms of rossby waves.
  20. LakePaste25
    Healthy +ENSO coupled mid-latitude cell showing up in the central pacific on the GEFS. W pac forcing starting to diminish.
  21. LakePaste25
    it’s why i always laugh when I see agencies such as AccuWeather or twitter accounts deterministically forecast seasonal snow totals in ENSO years like this. Above normal temps in the northeast and great lakes that fade towards neutral as you go south is a sure bet, but nobody can predict whether places like DCA will get a single storm that produces 150% of their seasonal totals.
  22. LakePaste25
    This morning it was in the 50s and was raining. Much more typical of what I’d expect for a pre-super Nino summer around here as 1972, 1982, and 1997 had a handful of these days in June and July.
  23. LakePaste25
    It goes both ways. When some of us throw 97-98 into the mix, we aren’t saying the snow totals will repeat verbatim. Some of this is just random variability. 97-98 came extremely close to a producing KU’s a couple of times and could actually produce one if the general pattern repeated. So people shouldn’t freak out that their snow is being taken away when that year is mentioned.
  24. LakePaste25
    What are the top analogs for this event? Let me guess: 09-10, 14-15, 04-05, 02-03, 76-77, and 77-78
  25. LakePaste25
    Not that unusual in super Nino events. I wouldn’t expect 24/7 +AAM and it’ll probably bounce back quickly.
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