Bob Chill

There were signs of things improving in Jan but the west coast trough kept getting pushed out in time. What's unusual is the way we get out of the warmish pattern. It's mostly atlantic driven. We appear to be getting lucky with the ridge in canada creating split flow. We're seeing quite a bit of agreement on that now.

This looks freekin good. I'm good with every member height plot on this panel and it's 15 days out in time. Not a bad one in the bunch. The ones that are warm have winter on the heels. Can't predict snow this far out in time but it def looks like we're getting some cold shots in early Jan.

Here's the mslp anomaly for the last 30 days or so. Confirms my thoughts about a persistent low pressure near the maritimes. I'm good with that continuing through the end of March

There's a parade of closed ULLs tracking through the southwest on all ops right now. Get the atlantic right and keep the parade going and one of them is going to hit us flush. One of the most persistent LW features since mid Nov has been 50/50s. I haven't seen the atlantic look this good since Jan 2011. There's nothing more fun than a classic coastal that hits everyone relatively equally. I liked seeing the Jan 87 analogs showing up on cpc. The only thing more fun than a flush hit coastal is a second one shortly after...

I do like seeing guidance lock in to a return to more favorable conditions before the end of the year. Important step #1 is to not have the 850 0c line north of the great lakes. That should be fixed before 2020. But like with all large pattern flips... they generally don't hit the ground running so patience required (as always....)

Very nice shift on the EPS towards a colder regime beginning just after NYE with a much more defined eastern conus trough in place by Jan 2nd. One of the larger run over run jumps (in the good direction) I've seen recently. ETA: h5 pattern looks good but oddly there isn't much going on in the snowfall dept.

I think all guidance looks the same now in general (including the CMC/GEPS). Ridge in the EPac splits flow and the blocking ridge in Canada forces the northern stream underneath as the Atlantic carves out a 50/50. All models are showing a similar progression with just minor differences in speed/placement of features. The most important thing to root for is the altantic carving out confluence as soon as possible. We'll be in the sweet climo window where normal temps are good enough by the time things improve.

Yea, now we have the big 3 globals looking the same at d10 and all ens support the idea of how/when things turn for the better. The GFS/CMC/Euro have a storm approaching from the SW d8. The Atl can make this happen with well placed confluence. Even with a west track we can do our CAD thing.

D9-10 deal on the euro was pretty close to working out. The atlantic is asserting itself nicely and it's within the realm for it to become a legit threat (of some sort). 0z EPS had a cluster of maybe 12 solutions that had at least a trace of snow. Will be interesting to see if 12z EPS ups the ante. It's probably waaay too fast to expect things to get right before Jan but it is something (the only thing) worth watching over the next 10 days.

BWI 11/11 IAD 10/31 DCA 11/17 RIC 11/11 Tie Rainfall 10.10"

And to think... there was a heated drought debate last winter.

I feel sorry for the dought

Absolutely. What makes this July stand out it was it was really wet and still came in about +1-2 around the airports. If it was dry then it could have been much worse. Easy top 5 imho. The 6-7 days of the month averaged well below normal. Mostly because of the summer coastal. EJ is disappointed because of wasted potential.

Nice stats Rodney! The precip in July is probably the only reason we didn't end up in the top 10 for heat. August is looking unimpressive so far in the heat dept. Would be nice to have a BN month.

One thing is for sure, that 7 day period in Feb 10 may not be topped for 100 years or ever. If the poll was "greatest 7 days of winter" there only needs to be 1 choice.

One of my main reasons for picking 1/16 is because I have a much deeper knowledge of east coast snowstorms. The hunt was as rewarding as the prey. PD1 was the "first hit" in the lifetime addiction so it will forever be a defining event in my life. But tracking a beautiful storm for 8 days and knocking down 30" in my yard may never be topped before I'm dead. Or in 2 weeks...

Me too. We've only had 2 bad out of the last 6. 10-11 wasn't above normal snow wise but it wasn't in the bad winter class either. We've had 4 giant and 2 really big storms in the last 6 years. Plus we're on a 3 year heater and froze the bay and rivers the previous 2 years. We probably have better than normal odds at adding another big or giant storm this year. Best of all...since this nino is so strong so late in the year we could have a sweet weak Nina next year to keep the run going...lol

That h5 loop is a 10 second clinic of exactly what to look for if you like big snowstorms. I love the trajectory overhead and off the coast. So sweet for our latitude

I changed my vote. 2016 was an incredible tracking and real time experience. The insane model runs and insane totals around the areas west of the cities led to an unimaginable period for winter wx enthusiasts. Biggest storm ever in my yard seals the deal.

Awesome loop Ian. This thread is great. Can you animate an h5 re-analysis?

I posted this in another thread. I uploaded the loop to YouTube. https://youtu.be/m5SRBhKirrQ

I uploaded this loop to Youtube. It's so cool to see how the leading shortwave that dropped an inch and destroyed a commute set the stage for a cold storm. Just a beautiful loop. One for the books. https://youtu.be/m5SRBhKirrQ

Heh, yep it was Stern. Young memories mix things up. Grease dropped a few bombs on air that were far worse.

Anyone remember when Greaseman called Air Florida on air shortly after the accident? Wow. I was 13 at the time so unfortunately I thought it was funny...now...notsomuch.

Yes, more likely but I'm sure there's been some ice during warm enso. Probably not many with mod+ or strong. Someone prob has good stats on that and can chime in. I'm surprised we didn't get more ice the last 2 years. Especially 13-14. It was a prime ice pattern but we ended up snowing instead. Weird (and very lucky) year.