Bob Chill

Yep, but man did we have some luck on our side during those periods. Ridge/trough axis kept lining up. Don't forget 93-94 as that was a very similar pattern with much different results.

I kept seeing the CFS weeklies going in that direction and it made sense that we could *potentially* end up in that type of regime so nice to see it showing inside of 15 days now. I think the -EPO is going to be legit and not a fantasy. How everything else breaks is hard to say. Assuming we do enter a +PNA/-EPO/+NAO regime we should all know what to expect as we have a lot of practice. 2014&15 had a bunch of luck on top of a decent pattern. 93-94 has almost no luck unless you like ice. Cold at times is a lock with a hemispheric pattern like that. Ptype is at the mercy of luck/timing.

EPS says welcome back Jan/Feb 2014 and Feb 2015. EPO starts building d6 and much faster with that feature compared to any recent run.

@psuhoffman EPS is going Feb 2014/15 down the line. lol. I may score a lucky guess with that if it happens. Looks pretty cold d10+. Not just here but the eastern 2/3rds of the conus.

Take a look at the run over run h5 delta on the EPS. Marked improvement building the EPO ridge

Another promising EPS run coming out. Speeds up building the -EPO ridge and is decidedly colder in the east d9+ than the 0z run. Looks like a messy gradient pattern begins around d9 that continues to improve after.

GEPS looks like the GEFS but quicker. Half decent by d10 but this is nice to see. Just like the GEFS but quicker/better. -EPO/-NAO/+PNA and with the trough near Hawaii the STJ may be a player down the line.

We're at least 5-7 days away from any shot at a d5 event so you may want to take a break for a while. The only things that will be discussed here are outside of your range.

Don't waste your time. The fact that the response was meh tells you that you are dealing with an irrational person so trying to be rational is futile. The fact that we're consistently seeing an uptick in activity as we move forward is good. Expecting any type of consensus on a discrete event d10+ is silly.

Is it?

I looped the members. BUSY is a good word. Quite a few mixed/ice events during the period but some legit coastal shellackings in the mix. Best GEFS I've seen d10-15 all winter. Similar to what the EPS is doing. Seeing the legit coastals on the run was nice because they have been few and far between on the GEFS for basically the entire winter.

All in. GEFS is hinting at a transition towards a legit storm look for these parts. This panel is only a couple small adjustments away to put the MA in a good spot for a decent storm. No idea if it's right but between all ens guidance I'm not worried about being stuck in a shutout pattern for too long here.

12z gfs spit out exactly what we were just talking about. lol. As long as we get a foot of it I'm good with ice.

This is what I'm thinking too. Ens are active with cold around but it's not a good/classic setup so mixy/messy is the most likely outcome unless we time something well again. No way to know anything irt timing d10+ of course. All signs are slowly pointing towards a period where we won't be torching and it won't be dry.

It's been that way since thanksgiving. Windows opening and closing. Today wasn't even much of a window but worked out anyways. Would be nice if our next event is all snow with cold surface to start

Appears ens guidance is moving towards the idea that we may get another event inside of 2 weeks. Gefs has looked like utter crap for the 18th-22nd until 18z today. Long leads are always muddy and scattered witn discrete events so I don't focus on any single solution. I like using the meteos for activity in general. For d10-15 this is pretty busy. Epsecially considering how lame the previous 4 runs have been. I would feel more confident if the gefs and eps looked more similar in the upper levels. Maybe we see the gap close within a couple days. EPS has had 3 good/steady runs in a row. Get another 3-4 that stay busy with the same general pattern and it's prob going to be right. I'm not hyping the period at all as it can go poof in an instant so I'm just looking fpr consistently at this stage. So far I like most of what I'm seeing for another chance this month with the caveat being the prog'd upper level pattern is decent but not great and not a big storm look.

Even with the large upper level differences between the EPS and GEFS the 18z GEFS is pretty busy d10-15. Majority of members drop frozen and a handful are pretty good. The 18-21st window keeps looking better. We have 10 days of deadspace to get through first so patience pills will be needed

Back to back powerful north altantic ulls moving through the 50/50 region and create a pretty stout -nao ridge in their wake. Looks like it's a byproduct of the NA weather pattern and not from europe. Sick d15 panel to enjoy for another 6 hours or so

I'm not sure where we would go from the end of the 12z EPS but there was nice uptick in legit storms between the 18-21st. Another solid run in the books.

Stupid GEFS reverted back to the trough west/ridge east. The difference between the GEFS and EPS is quite large right now. Even with the crappy looks late, there a # of solutions with snowfall including some real storms. Back in Dec when a good pattern showed up d10-15 there were hardly any storms on the ens but not the case right now. I'll just keep huggin the EPS. It's busy d10-15 and hopefully we are too.

@Ralph Wiggum not sure about the decade but 0z EPS was basically a carbon copy of 12z. As already noted, gefs is slowly caving. 2 more good runs and we can start relaxing a little. Relaxing in the 60s and maybe 70s...

Yea man, since mid Dec the ensembles have been on fire across the board. Nearly every major move has been telegraphed far in advance. One of the better years in recent memory for ens guidance. EPS has been pretty amazing and that's why I don't really doubt the d10-15 flip. Give me 2 more runs with a similar progression and I'll be very confident with where we're going.

Don't want to post this in the disco thread and get everyone all riled up.... EPS mean high temps this weekend are in the mid 60s. That's very impressive for a 52 member mean... There must be a bunch of solutions near 70. Being honest... I would LOVE a weekend in the 60s

18z gfs op was a full cave to the EPS/GEPS progression. 18z gefs is a partial cave. Get all 3 global ens looking the same with no can kicking and the spirit of winter can return here. Cracks in the gefs stubborn armor have just shown up...