Bob Chill

You havent lived until 2-3' of heavy kielbasa has trapped you inside your house for a couple days.

Pretty sure there was a similar event in San Fran recently

The main reason it wont stick to the roads is because weenies have been huffin and puffin and pantin all day. All that hot air has to be accounted for somewhere. Aint nothin free in wx.

Lotteries are 50/50 anyway. You either win or you dont. Just like 12" tomorrow is 50/50. Math is only as complicated as you make it. I'm 100% sure nobody on this planet knows exactly how tomorrow goes. THAT is confidence I can stand behind. This stuff isnt hard people. Sheesh

Tell your friend to get some extra rest and tune up their shovels over the next 5 days. Cuz they gonna need both bigly maybe possibly kinda sorta cuz it's a lock unless it unlocks.

Yea man, I'm diggin the mid range period. Def not expecting clean snow. That's for sure. But the next best thing is a snow/sleet/ice/more snow/sleet/ice followed by deep freeze. I've had a glacier fetish ever since Feb 2007

Now were talkin! Boom

Rain. Sorry mappy mapperton. Maybe next year

I got a $500 christmas bonus and I'm so upset it wasn't $1k that I dont even want the lame 500 anymore.

Sure, if dew points were high and evap cooling already took place. Neither of those apply to the cherry picked panels you posted. I get it. You want it to rain. And it might for a little while before the flip. Make sure you set your alarm to catch the rain before it's gone

True, I like casual fun even in the face of adversity. My ears cant take much more blackboards and fingernails and stuff tho. Chips fall now. Goal posts are practically cemented.

How come nobody is looking at soundings on the nams? If you did you'd realize that the only temp prob is right at the surface when it counts. It's cold right off the deck on up. Not just a little cold either. Mid levels look great. Column is in good shape. It's usually not when the surface is dicey. Does anybody look at soundings anymore?

Now that light rain showers are a lock for tomorrow we can move on to thext one

Yea, I'm with you. I was never one to try my hardest to will the storm away. We clearly insulted the storm since last night so it should be no surprise it wants to take its ball and go home. Insulting NWS is just an added bonus so they can stop hoisting warnings completely

Just dont lose sight that earlier this week there was no storm and now there is one. That's the most important trend because without it, discussing totals is as productive as the majority of washington football team's first round draft picks

I'm waiting for Ji to bring up Dec 2018 (i think that was the year) when we went from a multi-day sw flow firehose on the models that magically morphed into cool/dry.

Like always, it just wants to snow here. Dime a dozen run right there

All localized droughts end up breaking out of it with a boom. That's a fact. Problem is, wx is cruel and it can outlast your life expectancy then dump 3' at your funeral

For your and my yards, I'd be surprised if either cracked 6"+ or got less than 2". Not really a big spread of outcomes at this point imo. We're both in the heart of the climo boom stripe for this exact setup. If that changes I'll def say as much but haven't really changed my mind much since Wed when I became interested. I've actually become more optimistic in not getting the weenie shaft. No matter what, I'm expecting some people to be posting "raked rippage snowglobe" at some point tomorrow. Might be you, might be me, might be neither, but somebody is likely going to be all jacked up tomorrow morning under some yellows.

This is a storm discussion thread tho. Not weenie therapy or a coping room. Majority of lurkers come here for good analysis and sound information. I see good and bad here as well but I'm not choosing a side and vehemently defending it cuz you know... feelings...

CPC d8/11+ analogs are promising. I like seeing VDay 2007 popping up consistently. Ended up a sleetbomb for many but I'll take a repeat of that setup all day and the day after that. Mixed bag on both d8/11+ but it's not too weenie to focus on the good ones because the upper air pattern is as good as it gets really.

You're focusing entirely too much on verbatim models and not thinking about the mechanics in play here. Yes, models could be right or much more wrong and it ends up a flurry. History says someone gets a pretty flush hit in short order and temps wont make a damn bit of difference for a few hours if it goes down that way. You seem to want to completely prove this as impossible for some reason that I (or anyone) doesnt understand.

I'm sure this has been touched on in the last week because we always talk about it when arctic boundaries wobble around nearby but deep cold (especially with blocking) kinda sucks. Playing with fire is what we want. Sure, clean storms with long duration snowpack is unlikely but so is bluebird teens and single digits for days on end. We've seen a quite a few mid/lr arctic blasts on models last 5 years and very few of them verified with the depth and staying power as shown out in time. Hard to think the next week or so will be any different

With a defined lp storm and meso banding to the NW, I disagree they jumped the gun at all. I got 6" total last storm but impact on roads/travel was pretty minimal because it was stretched over 3 full days. 4" in 4 hours can paralyze our area. Totals and impact are not one in the same. Hoisting a warning for the public is very warranted even if criteria doesnt verify imo

Agree 1000%. Overrunning is "boring" in some ways because the only mechanism for boom is time under the feed. Otoh, overrunning is low stress, (relatively) easy to track, and rarely gets rug pulled in the closing 48 hours on in. Maybe my memory is selective but I swear up and down the 70s & 80s bread and butter snow was 2-4/3-6 overrunning events. I remember watching old school 16k resolution radar tracking the "green feed" right from the smokey mtns to my yard. I'm in on some redux on that stuff