Bob Chill

Just to get this out of the way first... I'm not a doctor or a scientist or have any professional training in the medical field. Ok, done with that. I just want to point something out that really concerned me with your posts last night. Busts, duds, and lame winters are 100% out of our control. Always have been and always will be. That's actually what makes it fun for many of us. Digging in and trying to solve a complex riddle that nobody can change the outcome of. Do we all get frustrated, mad, or sad? Oh heck yea man. Like a boss. But that can be controlled at least a little right? Having your days and/or weeks being semi-ruined because of something nobody can control is not a healthy cycle. This game is supposed to be fun for the most part. Yes, it tries patience and nerves. That's just normal human reaction to disappointment. What you are posting isn't the same and it makes me concerned as a friend. I'm not judging a damn thing and I'm certainly not looking down on anyone. We all got problems man. But we're human and supposed to right? I have no magic advice here but I will say that there are signs that this nutty game could be having adverse consequences on a larger part of your life than it should. And I never want to see anyone be excessively sad for any reason ever. We all deal with our own demons and voices in our head. I'm no angel there and neither is anyone on this sub if I had to guess. Life stress will eat you alive if you let it. I keep very simple guidelines in my life to help me think through stuff when I'm "off". Consider using these if possible: 1. There 2 kinds of triggers of stress or depression or whatever in life and they are easily divided in 2 categories: those that you can control and those that you have zero control over. Weather is cleanly in the latter category. 2. When dealing with things you have no control over you have to recognize that and accept it. Don't run yourself ragged over things you can't control. It's a vicious cycle. Tell yourself you will not allow things you cannot control to steal your happiness and well being. Tell yourself this often. It helps. Trust me. 3. For things you can control, action is medicine. Sounds easier said than done but happiness is a valuable commodity. A little action makes a big difference. If you're down on something but you don't put any effort in to fix it then it only gets worse and worse. You can control your sadness over snowfall at least a little right? I can't give advice on how to do this because we're each unique but it all starts with guideline #2.

18z eps has 0 members showing a hit anywhere and the control is further NW than the 12z op. 12z cmc ens has almost no support for the 12z op. That pretty much does it for me. I'm out.

I really hope he wants to graduate. Agreed with nba synopsis. Smith would need to bulk up more than a little to be a big man. However, the nba is ALL about offense now. Smith is shooting almost 40% in 3 point land and 75% at the line. Uncommon for a 6'10" forward. I could see him playing for the Warriors or Lakers or similar

Yea, assuming no decent event hits this will be the worst since I bought my house in 2002. The stretch from late Jan 2011 thru Mar 2013 is the worst stretch of time. 2011-12 was easy becuase we didn't get teased much. I knew that winter was toast before it started and it didn't disappoint. We'll get another taste of 11-12 once the AK death vortex sets up. Won't notice much different because we've been warm every way possible. The AK vortex killed all of 2011-12 Imo- this year could easily score worst winter ever. Lots of taunting and teasing with an endless string of fails so far and the future looks grim. There's been nothing exciting at all in the medium or short range, been warm AF, no frozen ground, no frozen skating ponds, and lots of fookin rain.

Every reshuffle out west or above us has produced the same sensible result. Can we get a good storm still? Sure, crazy writing that off just cuz. If the eps is right with the AK vortex down the line a good storm will remain highly unlikely and elusive no matter what models show. I'm always forward looking in life. No matter what happens the next 2 months, I'm going to Myrtle during moco spring break in early April. Can't wait for that and it keeps me happy in the face of the epic disaster winter we're having. I wish late Nov/early Dec never happened. It sucked me in when I expected a dud all fall

That doesn't mean anything to me. Neither does ATL getting snow. Who cares? My yard on the other hand... my muddy soggy yard with flower bulbs coming up.... that matters a lot and it sucks

It's possible but that was a tiny little shortwave and hard to model. The fail next week is meaty. Models aren't going to flip around too much from here me thinks. Now the GFS, ICON, and Euro have a nw or overhead track. Multiple euro runs without wavering too. CMC is the outlier until 0z

It's hard to go wrong anywhere in NE or north. Very rugged and beautiful basically everywhere. NH has no state income tax and that's very important as we are trying retire early. MD is awful with both income and property taxes. No chance we're staying here unless they drop income tax. We all know the chance of that is 0%. If we both end up north we can hook up, ride sleds and weenie out. Lol

My wife and I currently have New Hampshire as #1 on our list for when we get out of here in 8-10 years. There's something about the landscape and geography of the NE that hits us right. We'll no doubt have a couple sleds to rip through the backcountry during winter. If we could we would do it today. Just isn't possible yet...

I'm really happy for PSU getting the goods out west but if I'm being completely honest... it makes me a little mad too.

They got a decent storm in Jan. Warning level accums in some places. I think md line folks are all close to or above 10" on the year. On topic... 12gefs made more than a little shift towards the euro op. Euro seems set on a west track. Could be wrong but it appears there's some convergence toward that solution

Gefs looks horrible for next week and no improvement through d16. itsnothappening.gif

@Ji how about the wiz being 3 games out of the last playoff spot with an 18-32 record. Lol. God the eastern conf sucks this year. Not complaining though. 10 games under 500 could do it

One of MD's problems is their athlete graduation rate. Especially the stars. Every red hot recuit presents the same question... 1 year or 2? Lol. Smith is going to be a great pro. Soft touch with FTs and 3s and a serious presence inside. NBA teams drool over that stuff.

Agreed. Williams years were tenacious. Duke and NC feared every game they played. Williams was a little cursed in the tourney though. Losing too many first and second round games when it should have been a win. They got some crappy draws with seeds but still... gotta lock that S down if you ever want to win it all. I loved the Williams years though. I used to go to at least 3-4 games a year. What an environment!

It's possible but my yard has seen its share of rain with 35-38 surface and good mids this year. This is another setup where the northern tier can pull something off while I shovel rain... again

I think if things stay the say they are or slighty improve....you would see an improvement with the temps Yea, I'm not poo pooing anything. Just being realistic at D5. Maybe this is the one that hits on all luck cylinders. I'm not making any definitive statements. Just pointing out the issues that need to be overcome beyond a snowmap

Checking under the hood of the cmc, here's surface temps at 7am thurs with precip knocking on the door. How snowy does this look?

Neither. Just sit back and wait until all models look the same. Nothing will be decided in advance until we have that. Based on recent runs we aren't remotely close to consensus yet. Just watch and understand that this is not an easy way to get anything. Even if the mids are good, what will the surface look like?

It has a chance with these requirements: mid level winds overhead pressing down out of the north and a clean slp track below us. Only the cmc has that now.

@Ji cmc is good. Keeps mid level winds northerly and pushes back against sw flow. Nice press behind as well. If everything starts moving that way it will drag me back in.

Not very different. Even though the ouput was better the inherent problem is identical. I don't think 6z should have any snow for us. 850 cold is weak AF and I'm sure other levels like 800, 925, etc are also going to have their own issues. Deep cold is nearly always a requirement with a southern stream wave. We haven't had deep cold since the first 10 days of Dec. A good rule of thumb is we need 850s to be -5 on approach and the 0c line at least in central VA but NC is better. Can a wave on a boundary work? Absolutely but not with marginal air. We need 2013-14 air for that scenario imo

Best team since 01-02. They arent that good of course but overall depth and talent isn't that far behind. The Diamond Stone years were decent but not this level. I wonder how long Smith stays in college tho.... Early in the year the terps looks typical with good talent but had a very hard time locking down in the second half and giving fans heart attacks. Now they turn it up, play very tight D, and take advantage of opportunity. Last 5 minutes last night was very impressive. Team said screw this crap, lets take them out of the game physically and mentally and they did it.

Look at mid level winds on approach. Cold is shallow and sw flow is running right in line with the upper level ridge in front of the SW. The "cold" is total weak sauce. The real cold and arctic front is up by the Canadian border. As the shortwave approaches the sw flow keeps getting stronger. Weak cold and sw flow + ridge = good luck here

Gfs needs to improve by hr96. This is not a snow setup in our region.