Bob Chill

After all we've been through over the last 15-20 years on the forums, you should know to never predict more than 6" until 8" is on the ground and "radar looks great"

Hey man you gonna stick around for what looks to be an active February. And yes...on your post. Think March 2001 lol Only for game time during events. If this storm wasnt lining up over a weekend I prob wouldnt have jumped back in. Expectations on these kinds of storms should be easy. There's plenty of history to draw off of. Jan 2016 was the absolutely ultimate end result and quite anomalous. Which was incredible but that's not happening again with this one. This one is more typical w/climo. You and me are fighting for a total respectable enough that we can light the board up with goofy nonsense. Otherwise we go dark and log off.

Usually not until its already happening and we dont need models anymore

Hoo is this guy?

Dont worry yourself to death and get caught between IMBY'ism. It's game time. We all only care about our yards. I'm honest about it. Some like to wish everybody gets the same amount but that's not how this game works. You'll see all kinds of different "takes" on each run because people are only focusing on about 30 pixels of the entire digital map Know your climo. NS hybrids rarely jack anyone north of the potomac with part #1. I always expect to be in the middle unless there's ptype problems. Your area is lower and sw in VA is higher. It's how it works basically always. These storms also rarely jack my yard with part 2. NOVA fears part 2 for good reasons. Climo favors N-NE MD. I usually get some decent snow but again, fall in the middle. Your yard is typically higher and part 2 has higher ratios due to cold column and upper level support. This helps juice accums for the lucky ones. Models struggle dearly with part 2 because a ton of sh!t has to happen first before part 2 gets going. As leads shorten, more and more of the important things are resolved and out of the way. We're close to that part but were still talking Monday, not Sunday. We won't know for sure how part 2 breaks until snow is already falling. Even then we wont know because storms like this have a long standing habit of doing unexpected things. I personally dgaf what models show tonight or even tomorrow night for part 2 as long as my yard is still generally in the game for something decent. Lastly there's the WD and WND indexes to consider. In 2016 my yard got absolutely raked in the deform bands. I was right on the line but got smoked. For that reason alone I don't expect to be in the jackpot zone in either part but I am expecting a very fun, long duration, instant stickage, multi faceted storm. These are rare and amazing. If you get a foot and it bugs you that somewhere relatively close gets 18", you'll never have fun doing this

This is the only part of the hobby that is a blast. The rest is a lot of work with no paycheck. Lol. I'm doing totally fine. The only time to worry about me is when I don't show up for a storm like this. Haha

Euro/eps has been the coldest global leading in. I havent looked at nearly as many maps as others around here with this storm but I do know the euro suite is the most optimistic with cold. You're def getting plenty of precip. Just need CAD to flex. You know your climo better than me tho. That always matters in the midatlantic regardless of what models say

I can't decide if it's filthy or Stimpy after hitting the top shelf indica.

At least 03 kept paying us back into march. Nurses the wounds. Some of the recent busts during crazy snow droughts is weenie waterboarding

Dude, are you crazy? Do you want it to actually snow? Radio shows are the kiss of death to even the most locked in storm

Yea, gotta be ready for that becuase radar doesnt extrapolate well. No implying we dont do very well but the boom potential for the WAA is sw of us like almost every time. The obvious tradeoff is we get the deform and sw of us doesn't. It's when both pieces bust that send me walking the streets kicking anything alive that I see.

The prob we run into here (and it's very normal) is the waa piece will die off overhead during the transfer. That's why the big totals are almost always down by CHO and ROA etc. Loses some of the punch even tho sw of us gets clobbered. There was a storm that none of us should ever talk about ever again but it was an extreme case of the shutoff basically right overhead even though radar looked sick for hours leading in

Damn dude. I had to screencast to my 65" tv so I didnt have to scroll so damn far on my tablet

It's a grey area and we all have our own rating system. To me, true miller A's run the southern stream and turn the corner. They often run into the TN valley and transfer but imo they are still pure miller As. Any northern stream storm is a hybrid or miller B. This one is more of a hybrid than a miller B but we all think our own way

They still bring that up to this day. When the planets and moon did their special dance a couple months ago my son was like "you still talk to the telescope guy? This would be cool to look at", Oh, the younger twins are 16 now. My son is 6'4". Lol. At 6'2" I absolutely NOT used to looking up at people in the house. My older twins both graduated from MD and have moved out. Still come by all the time to eat all my food and make me fix things they broke so basically nothing has changed except where they sleep

Nah, that's like me taking some of the credit for a job well done when I actually didn't do jack sh!t. That's a politician move right there.

Yea, I totally get that. As a father of 4 kids and a lot of friends over 50 years old, I worry myself when someone goes quiet. That was never my intention. Had I had known at any time that my absence was going to be this long I would have dropped a line. I was really glad when WxUSAF emailed me a few months ago honestly. I had already been thinking that I'm indirectly (or directly) causing people to have dark thoughts about my whereabouts because I'm the same exact way with other people.

Hey peeps. Let me clear the air first. I never intended to stay offline here this long. It just happened. However, last couple years lost their luster for me meaning I stopped having fun here. That's a me problem tho. Y'all do you forever. Thing is, I'm pretty damn busy with real life basically always. This place is a time suck and a half. Then add it all the hours spent staring at maps/charts/graphs/blah blah blah and I realized that I'm absolutely not using my own potential to do big things in life. So ALL that energy and analysis that I traded off here I put to work somewhere else and it was the smartest decision of my life. Nobody will like to hear this but I've become disinterested in long range tracking. Too much self induced stress/work for basically nothing in return for years at a time. I became a square peg and this game is a circle hole. Also a circle jerk but that's a different topic alltogether. I haven't tracked jack shit all year. I knew it was a nina and that's all I needed to know. If it happens great and if not I have more important stuff to do. But...... but................. BUT.......... IT"S FOOKIN HAPPENING. BOOM. I'm here for jokes and obs and entertainment. I really don't care nearly as much what any model says cuz wx gon wx and it doesn't give AF about our feelings. Nice to see a blocked coastal in a nina though. That's a bonus check and a half.

I could have forecasted that for my yard 6 years in advance.

That's for you guys to figure out cuz I don't care if I'm me or not. Don't want to get 5 posted or banned tho so I won't derail the thread. Banter

Sup peeps. I'm new here. How much for Rockville?

Before it can snow in your back yard it has to snow digitally. @bobchill is interested I cancelled wxbell 2 weeks ago and have been barely following. If whatever fantasy threat there's talk about gets inside of 5 days I'll get back in the seat. Until then hiking, biking, and spring yard cleanup are on tap.

Yea, that would freak me the F out if it was my house. Back in 02 when I lived in Germantown our townhouse had an ice dam on the eaves from PD2 snow melt and it ran behind and down the siding. Created a frozen waterfall on front of the house. Thankfully it was a rental. lol. Owner said don't worry about it he'll fix it in the Spring. LOL

Damn, I could have had a blizzard AND a foot of ice if I lived on Lake Erie... https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/01/us/lake-erie-ice-houses-frozen-trnd/index.html

I'm sure they do. High snow load is baked into the codes of any area that gets large amounts regularly. Colorado rockies are 2x6" walls minimum. Many houses are 2x8s. I can't remember trusses but they are beefed up for sure. I can't remember a single collapse in the 7 years I lived there. However, at least 2 people died from roof avalanches.