Bob Chill

It will have to reshuffle if a big -ao/-nao is coming back. Mod/strong EPO ridges generally feature a neutral or + ao/nao because it's awful hard to fill the entire arctic circle with high pressure. Blocking slows things down and spreads out shortwaves which is good when they have their eyes on you but terrible when your on the outside looking in. I'd prefer blocking but there are advantages to progressive epos when it comes to precip events. They are spaced tighter and more frequent. Pick your poison because it NEVER comes easy here lol

Lake shots didn't come out well but this is the scene

Cold powder scene with this one. Crazy satisfying and a long wait lol

Last 3-4+ years has taught us that long range models almost exclusively overdo the depth of progressive cold invasions. I don't think it's different this time. Doesn't mean easy snow. Just won't be nearly as easy for GA than current progs show lol

I want to slantstick so bad... but I can't lol..... 3.75" total.

Getting close to 3" and best dendrites/rates of the event falling now. I don't think I'll hit 4" but radar looks half decent for another hour or 2.

27 and moderate snow with decent dendrites. A smidge over an inch. Gonna walk around in a few and see if decent pics are possible.

There wasn't much virga here. First round of fake greens faded then it filled back in an hour later and was snowing. I've seen far worse. Prob because it's a southern stream wave

A distant second is a VERY kind gesture in this sport. I'll always root for the hoco-moco deathband... as long as the Roanoke-lynchburg nuke stripe is twice as big

Getting good now. Snow growth improved to small dendrites and steady light snow. Viz about a mile still but rates picking up and roads covered. Temp steady at 28

Radar accurate down here. Lull then steady light snow. Snow growth not great. Shattered snowflakes but instant stickage. Temp 28

First flakes let's gooooo

FCX radar looks sweet right now. Yellows incoming. Looks better than anywhere in NC. Possibly good band of lift on the nrn edge.

Yea, 4-6" but it seems too bullish. I don't think there will be any 6" reports down here but hope I'm wrong of course. Been thinkin 2-4 the whole way.

We're closer to rnk and lynchburg climo. 15" in the recent past but it's been a bad stretch all around down here for too many years lol. My elevation is like 920 and plenty of areas above 1k around. My expectations are low. A good storm now and then keeps the spirit alive haha

Done. I'll go with nws 4-6" then. Tuff decision lol I actually have mixed emotions about maximizing. I gotta run to central OH with my truck and trailer early Sunday. Straight thru WV too. Towing on winter roads is mentally tiring...

Under green virga now. Waiting game has started. Consensus 5pm start time. Interested to see ratios when it gets going. Im feeling conservative but blacksburg is bullish.

Absolutely love the 8:30-2:30 orientation thru the TN valley. Really broadens the strike zone compared to similar but steeper amplification. Also slows down exits. You can get a pretty fat storm without deep slp. I'm very optimistic

Snow on kinda sorta snow for our land in Sandy Level. Hard pack frozen snow/sleet/zr lol on our driveway. No give underfoot. My tractor has awesome traction but if the treads can't break that crust I may end up involuntarily downhill. Lol. Maybe way down hill hahaha. No seat belts or airbags on 1967 tractors Eta: it's 26 degrees right now. No way we hit 33 forecast. No wasted flakes

@psuhoffman remember that straight west track cutter that was all snow? Late Feb 2015 I think? We all got like 4-8" with hp centered between OBX and Bermuda lol. 850s were below freezing 200 miles off the coast. Man that was wild. Surface temps were in low 20s at onset and winds from the surface thru 700mb were out of the south. Truly one of a kind IME. Not thinking thats happening again any time soon but progressive flow keeps spacing tight so I could easily see a west track or 2 working out after the 20th thru end of month. Chances of a legit ice storm will be much higher than normal too. Winter is changing for sure next couple weeks but it's not going anywhere. Good times even if it ends up being messy. I'm thinkin' CAD will be goto acronym here shortly lol

What qpf range did the mesos show leading in and does reality coincide or is it juicier? Was the northern extent well modeled or is reality further north?

It's legit unfortunately. I don't think it's possible to start off with a much drier airmass than this one lol. Especially this far south. That said, it's not a clipper and the front side of the snow is WAA and it's super juicy to the south. It may not take too long to get things saturated. Ratios may start off kinda weak then fluff up as we go into the night. 10:1 seems like a safe bet unless there's an enhanced band of lift with staying power. This is a good example sounding of what I'm thinking. Flakes won't be big and fluffy with those omegas. Last couple hours of snowfall look much better though and time will tell like always.

Hot springs is about 100 miles to my NW. Different world out there though. Appalachian counties have their own climate. Closer to WV than blue ridge areas.

Love me a good edible. Just the taste though. I don't actually eat them. I learned that from Bill Clinton