Bob Chill

They're covering the envelope because it's on the table. Imo- some sleet is prob a lock for everyone near the cities. Can you name any hybrid coastal tracking under us that produced a legit ice storm? I cant either.

Ignore that. When the first round shuts off, warm air moves in above but precip will be paltry. I suppose in your hood that round 2 could start as freezing rain but even then.... unlikely. For our area to get legit freezing rain it almost always involves primary low pressure remaining dominant and tracking west of us. This storm will be the standard snow, dryslot with drizzle and maybe inconsequential zr, followed by praying you get a reach around with round 2

We call it a hobby because we try to hide the truth and because it scares each and every one of us. That same deep rooted fear is why this board exists. We"re all looking for confirmation bias that we're "ok". I can say from 15+ years of experience, there's not one single ok mf'er on amwx. Birds of a feather and stuff.

I also wanted to add 2 more points. Climo is climo for a reason. Latitude, topography, proximity to the coast, and shape of the coastline defines climo. Storms behave in similar fashion for really good reasons. Central PA and N MD get big totals that wouldnt happen in my yard even if the storm went south because orographic influence is powerful. Just like deep creek getting hit with lake effect, C PA and N MD has an extra physical feature to wring out the sponge. I asked my wife if we could buy sugarloaf and move it to my back yard for this reason. She told me it sounds like a great idea if you're legally insane. Well... I am so...

Part of the reason I've backed off on this hobby is models are just gigantic math calculators where errors compound with time. Focusing on specifics with qpf (like 20 mile shifts or distribution) is simply not the way. It has never worked like that nor will it when I croak (i aint no spring rooster). It's much more accurate to compare the storm to every single similar one you can remember with how it broke for your yard. Drawing off personal experience COMBINED with giant atmospheric math calculator output with time based compounding errors gives a much clearer picture than tracking the exact placement of red horse schlongs. Now we see consensus (again) for a tucked crawl. I already know I'm walking a line with part 2 but if I'm going to get ccb'd, getting tucked up is where it's at. Speaking of tucked up, I'm just about 4 years since I quit drinking. If I can't get *ucked up then getting tucked up is the next best thing

Now if I'm forced to actually use my brain, set aside all bias, and be honest.... Euro of course for today. Mesos tomorrow for the waa but still euro for monday. Once monday rolls around, if models are still uncertain where the ccb is, just let it happen. Radar and satellite trump models imho in real time with ccb

Is this a real question? ALWAYS the snowiest. ALWAYS. Intelligent, logical, or completely opposite, that how this game works

OMG that is some funny S right there. Tracker just spit his milk out.

Just use your mom's advice at the dinner table when you were 7. "How do you know you wont like it until you try it?"

You need to add "Bad Ass" to the beginning of your screen name.

You know the neighborhood lines in DC very well. I'd ask why you know this but then it would reveal that I know it too so I wont

Dude, it's 2021. There's an entire shelf of various colored pills at the pharmacy. Some are better than others but you havent lived until you take them all at once

12z def has a bigger red horse schlong but still not in the right place. Maybe euro will put the schlong in my yard

If my yard gets screwed I can assure you that you will change your mind

There is no doubt digital thunder and lightning somewhere in our forum. 100% chance imo with that vort panel

Damn dude. Back pretty fast after the rgem. I figured you'd still be busy in private until the euro

This is the way

RGEM / ICON shift in guidance is what I was alluding to last night. Just keep my (or your) yard in the game. Unlikely that all of 12z follows but having a couple runs (and not a freakshow outlier) keep my yard in the envelope for big totals is a big win. Again, these storms almost ALWAYS do unexpected things in real time. I just want to know I have a chance so I dont feel compelled to troll and stir up chit

You need to switch "years" with "weeks" and it makes more sense

There's a 100% chance if my yard jacks I'll rub it in like a boss and go dark until the next one. Winners like to leave like winners. Losers are a dime a dozen

Obviously my circle drills me every event too and I've eaten plenty of fried crow sandwhiches. Now I say it the same way. "Dont be mad if we get totally screwed but IF things break right we could get x amount". Then I'll add my personal level of optimism/pessimism. Always gives you an escape hatch and when we get screwed you can tell your circle to STFU because you warned them. Experienced weenies play this game like chess. Noob weenies play it like crazy 8s and barrel full of monkeys.

So what your saying is models are adjusting toward the most common and typical outcome and not hitting a gut shot straight on the river? Who could have ever seen this coming?

The good thing is we only get a good storm every 3-5 years now so the topic isnt nearly as heated as it was when it used to snow here without picking the right mega millions #s

Figures I'd jump back in during a major event with a side order of forum divider. If 12z suite continues I'll spend my day making fliers and start gerrymandering and drawing new districts. Sorry mappy and psu. I'm only loyal to moco-hoco deathbands

Practically EVERY SINGLE STORM is a disappointment to many. Nobody knows our yards like we do. Gotta combine modelism with IMBY'ism and adjust accordingly. PSU was only freaking out this week because storms like this often crush his yard and models werent showing that. They were showing "unusual yard jacks" and it was very troubling to him