Bob Chill

This is a really tough storm to measure. I got 1.75" of clean snow before the flip. I'm confident there. I cleared an area for sleet accumulation but it was too close to my house and my roof deposited extra sleet. I definitely didn't get 4.2" of sleet and everhwere else was compacted to around 3.5" total. Total qpf for the storm is around 1.4" (models were too juicy in my yard) so I got around 1.2" qpf as sleet. I'm just going to call it 2.5" of sleet and go 4.25" for the event. A bit less than I had hoped but super memorable storm. Winter wonderland out there for sure.

100% agree. Def coastal potential and it's not that far out in time. I'm just pretty skeptical because of my take on the longwave pattern. It's an all or none for areas west of 95 (imo only) but your yard is in the best spot. If I lived on the delmarva I'd be more interested/optimistic. Analogs have been pretty weak on the window so far but they haven't been dire. I'm always paying attention like all the other sick weenies lol. Just not feelin it and want to be wrong hahaha Speaking of analogs... seeing some interesting ones starting to pop up d10-15 including Jan 2014 and Feb 2015. If we get a stable block analogs will prob start lighting up again.

A bit surprising I'm going to finish with no zr with the east part of the DMV getting some ice rn. Still pinging but should be a wrap by 7pm. Outside reminds me of an old chest freezer that hasn't been defrosted in a decade lol.

In the past we've had a # of clippers that drop 2-4/3-5 but certain specific things need to happen... the shortwave and slp have to pass underneath us and there needs to be some room for it to amplify before exiting the coast. For right now it looks like the ridge/trough axis will set up too far east for room to amplify but that can easily change. Clippers are usually identified in the mid range so under d5 on guidance. Anything beyond that is usually a phantom. They often seemingly pop up out of nowhere. Very different tracking than the current storm

2 closed contour NAO block showing on a d15 ens mean is crazy. That's high confidence and probably stable if it verifies. CFS has the block continuing through Feb. Doesn't guaranty anything of course but if you want a big coastal in Feb it's the best index to have in your favor. Big blocks can be dry so it doesn't mean wet/active. Patience will prob be needed for a time. Clipper type chances over the next 1-2 weeks seems like the best chance for snowfall. Beyond that could be pretty ripe for something big. Eta: @frdwas already on top of this. I didnt see his post before making mine. Nothing wrong with seeing this panel 2... or 200 times lol

Mod to bursts heavy sleet in the final band. Few decent wind gusts as well. Didn't get nearly the snow totals as the dmv folks but a high impact and memorable storm no matter. This has been a solid winter in these parts

Final slug rolling through and it's sleet. Whew! Temp steady at 23.

The lull has been sleet mist accumulating like snow lol. Cleared the sleet cake off my deck an hour ago and there's a quarter to half inch of dust already covering it. What a wild storm. Temp up to 21 and final round approaching. Hope it's sleet

Dryslot finally made it. Temp climbed a degree to 20. Shoveled my deck and it was like a pan of stale brownies lol. Sleetcake. Big slug looming to my sw. P-type TBD but I sure hope it's more sleet...

Still sleet down here. 3k nam says mostly sleet with a zr finale during the final slug later this afternoon in my hood. Hrrr is heavier with the zr. My guess is the dmv will be mostly or entirely sleet. I'm still at 19 degrees.

Feb 07 was a top 3 analog from 5 days out to game time. There were some decent snow events in the analog mix too so a simple analog blend nailed the outcome pretty good.

Same down this way. Sleet "dust" has blown through our screened porch and it looks like somebody dumped a bag of flour on the floor. Not sure how the big slug of precip is going to break in a few hours. Hoping it's a sandstorm and not zr. So far there are no icicles on anything (which is a big relief)

Still 100% sleet down here. Comes in waves. Lulls have tiny sleet that are more like snow than sleet pellets. Holding at 18 degrees. Prob in the 3.5" range of total snow and sleet. Grass is covered so I'll pretend it's a foot deep. One thing for sure, all of us are going to have snow-covered ground for a long time. Deep winter

Not too jazzed on next weekend rn. Ridge axis to the west is prob too close and the setup requires near perfection with timing as the window to crawl the coast is super tight. Time will tell. Beyond that is looking more ripe. Western ridge axis retros and a strong west based NAO block would force NS shortwaves south of us and far enough west for some amplification. Split flow potential as well. I REALLY like this look.... Eta: all 3 global ens are lock step. Confidence booster...

I'm 60 miles north of that line

75% sleet. 1-2 hours early. Unfortunately this doesn't surprise me. Sleet lines always hit all the green lights. So 1.5" of clean snow is my tally. More inline with the NAMs than globals down here. Hopefully the zr doesn't beat on me too much lol. For now I'll be in 2-3:1 ratios building a glacier

1.5" with continued light to brief bursts of mod snow. Temp steady at 14 degrees. CC radar showing some sleet dancing around to my south but no major line yet.

3k nam said I would have nothing by 9pm and I'm just shy of an inch. Also shows my temp @ 19 and I'm still 14. 3k could have the sleet timing correct but it missed an inch of snow already. Currently light snow with little bursts of mod.

No prob. I figured I was mostly cooked in the big snow dept 3 days ago but I also assumed I would get 3" of snow no matter what. Today's models and upstream obs in TN mostly verifying made me change my mind that 3" of clean snow would be the high bar. Temps have been breaking colder. My high was 21 (forecast 25) and I'm already down to 14 with a forecast low of 17. I'm sitting at a half inch of snow right now and the sleet line is where models had it so I expect the flip to be on time around 12-1am. I skeptical I hit 3" before the sleet moves in but I have a few hours to go.

If the current conditions persist I can make up some ground quick. High ratio stuff falling right now and I lost another degree and down to 15. I'm honestly surprised with both. I figured my yard would underperform in both categories. Snow growth at the beginning was terrible. I think salt has a higher ratio lol.

Other than the NAMs, most guidance has me in the 2-4" zone before the flip. Pretty uniform agreement I flip around midnight/1am. Right now I'm under a lucky band of mod snow. I need to maximize the window I have to hit the high end of pure snow totals. Sleet line will mean business once it starts moving north.

Colorado dendrites now. Sleet line in NC. Temp down to 16. Legit winter night down here in the southern MA.

Light snow starting to accumulate now. It's a sand like quality and not puffy flakes. I don't have high expectations but maybe things will rip for a few hours with normal dendrites

Just a couple hours but snow has super light/off and on until just now. It's starting to stick but it's more like sand than snow. The DMV will likely have much better snow growth conditions than my yard.

Very light snow and 19. Mountain tops starting to obscure. Slow ramp up