Bob Chill

@psuhoffman I checked Cips analogs and 1996 isn't on the list but there are some notables in the top 5. 3/2/1980 is #1. That one buried the Hampton roads area. Not sure what happened in DC but i think it was a storm. Jan 2011 is #3 lol. We should just blend those 2 and call it a forecast.

Weenie post lol. Euro AI did an excellent job @ d4-5 with the previous storm. Here's the vort panel 96 hours out for 12z sunday: Here's the verification: The surface forecast was rock solid for 4 days out. H5 was really good too except the northern stream verified digging further west and a more amplified system. So if you apply this logic to the upcoming potential storm.... heh

Thanks! That looks pretty sweet. Seeing the push of decent totals deep into NC is awesome. Other than a whiff, my biggest concern in SWVA is the depth of the trough backing off as leads shorten. Solid consensus of an insurance policy with that.

Mitch, what did the ukie ens look like down my way?

I'm actually right at climo which is surprising but also a testament to how bad my climo is LOL. I can't find a detailed climo map but I think climo is around 12" and sitting at 11.1 in January feels good. I was around 12" last year too. If we truly are entering a longer term blocking cycle my move south might not be as bad in the snow dept as I assumed.

If I was your neighbor I'd be feeling pretty good right now lol. Having the euro and ai firmly in your corner is a great place to be. Leads aren't that long and much of the important stuff transpires by hr96. Seeing both euros honing in on that is a big confidence booster. I just want some clean snow so even the icon with its much shallower dig put a smile on my face. Maybe I'm in a good spot but I'm not feeling safe in any way. I tossed the gfs completely after seeing the run over run trend in the euros. My wag is the 0z gfs will make a decisive move towards the euros

With Ji, it all begins and ends in Leesburg. Personally, I'm 100% good with the euroAI and I have wiggle room so I'm personally fine with the entire shield shifting 75 miles NW. It's a backyard sport though. If I could lock up the AI run i would.

Aigfs sucked at 12z but 18z is a drastic improvement

I originally didn't think there was a middle ground solution. That's why I was pessimistic last few days. Seemed like either the coastal got ripping and turned the corner or there was nothing. Northern stream looks more appetizing today. I'd take my chances with this kind of h5 look any day of winter. Won't blow minds or anything but I'd be thrilled with a 4-6" event...

Northern stream didn't dig nearly as far as 12z but still a close off and little energy ball. Shows the middle ground solution. Move north 75 miles and it's like a juiced energetic clipper in the DMV

Globals always struggle with mix lines. They excel at qpf but ptype is often more muddy. This is where forecasters earn their money. Applying historical/past experience and the region's favored climo outcomes can often make sense of this and produce a solid forecast that doesn't mirror any specific weather model output. Hobbiests should do the same. I agree, it was obvious based on soundings and mid level temp panels that the zr threat was overdone the euro. Easy mental adjustment. Models aren't perfect and rarely nail a forecast top to bottom. The nam 3k is unpredictable and inconsistent with qpf output but it's pretty good with thermals. Apply that skill to the euros qpf output and see what happens to your expectations. Snow maps and snow output is an algorithmic map and also a new phenomenon. They didn't exist when I joined Eastern wx and they have always been unreliable. They are a good snapshot/data point tool but without applying critical thought they should never be used verbatim as an expectation. In the past we used to (as a group) decide how much qpf will likely fall as snow and create our own estimates. I still do this and will continue. Snow maps are fun to look at but make terrible wives. Don't marry them. Use your brain. If you are using the ensemble snow maps at short range and setting expectations then you will often not be correct. Euro AI ens are great upper air tools in the mid range and seem pretty good at qpf in the mid range but when you're inside of 48-72 hours, op runs are the heavyweights by a large margin.

The place we live in has gravel roads and they don't plow because it wrecks the gravel base. Spent the last hour driving my truck around packing in tracks. What a blast but it sure isn't snow lol. It was more like compressing hot asphalt. My tires barely left tread marks. It's hilly here so I have a hunch that no 4wd vehicle (without chains) will be able to pull the hills tomorrow AM when everything sets like concrete. Our land is gravel road access too and our gravel drive is a solid hill. Didn't bother messing with that today but should be fun/interesting tomorrow

You're judging a global model based on an amoeba sized piece of real estate and discarding the entire storm. Everyone is entitled to an opinion but based on how the storm unfolded for the entire coast, the euro was BY FAR the best from mid range on in. It literally locked in during the short range and barely wavered. Micro analyzing a global model is using the wrong tool and perspective. No one tool is the best and thats why forecasters are important. To make sense of all the different nuances across guidance. Personally, I stick to a blend of the euro for qpf, track, and progression and the mesos for the fine details like thermals and banding. The last storm went exactly as I expected based on that formula.

In this case we're banking on the trough going neutral or barely positive and that progression starts much earlier than Saturday.

A bit disappointed seeing the changes pretty early in the run. It can swing back but there's not a lot of time for that. Would need the re-dig trend to start basically with 18-0z runs today and not several days down the line. I expect the eps to play follow the leader at this range as well but that doesn't mean as much with lead times being short.

Potential for 15-20:1 ratios is high so the euroAI would still be close to 6" in dc/Baltimore. Hard to hate the run unless you live in Leesburg

Just a bit more + tilt in front of the closed ULL. Minor diff but big implications. But the odds of anything being locked in is zero. That said, my yard strongly approves of this run.... 6-12" cold powder heh

There's a middle ground for a cold 2-4/3-6 event. Something similar to a juiced clipper. That solution has showed up in my yard but that can easily be your yard or both our yards depending on the amp and dig. A neutral trough and modest shortwave pass would do it. A quick hitter but still a snow event worth tracking and enjoying. Cold fluffy powder unlike yesterday's shortbread cake lol. I personally would be happy/not disappointed with a middle ground solution.

Much worse. Very progressive and out to sea. Trough never gets close to neutral and 500mb doesn't close off. Run of the mill weak progressive wave on the ukie

Having h5 close off and dig so far west and south is RARE AF lol. This is pretty much a northern stream hybrid Miller A caused by a near perfect upper air pattern. Personally, closed upper level low snow is my favorite. I'd believe models spitting out 15-20:1 ratios. Prime setup for the fabled thundersnow haha. The closed upper level low allows for a much larger precip field than a cut off coastal scraper/runner. I'm starting to bite here. I originally thought it was all or none. Now I see a relatively easy path for an in-between solution.

Icon was only off by an hour @ 120 meaning trough was pointing at 1pm while 12pm (neutral) would have done the job west of 95.

If it did that there would be tornados and stuff like that in our yards so some people here would love that option.

12/2: T .003" zr and 5-6 sleet pellets 12/5: 3.0 12/8: 3.8 1/25: 4.3 (1.8 snow / 2.5 sleet) Total: 11.1

This is a really tough storm to measure. I got 1.75" of clean snow before the flip. I'm confident there. I cleared an area for sleet accumulation but it was too close to my house and my roof deposited extra sleet. I definitely didn't get 4.2" of sleet and everhwere else was compacted to around 3.5" total. Total qpf for the storm is around 1.4" (models were too juicy in my yard) so I got around 1.2" qpf as sleet. I'm just going to call it 2.5" of sleet and go 4.25" for the event. A bit less than I had hoped but super memorable storm. Winter wonderland out there for sure.

100% agree. Def coastal potential and it's not that far out in time. I'm just pretty skeptical because of my take on the longwave pattern. It's an all or none for areas west of 95 (imo only) but your yard is in the best spot. If I lived on the delmarva I'd be more interested/optimistic. Analogs have been pretty weak on the window so far but they haven't been dire. I'm always paying attention like all the other sick weenies lol. Just not feelin it and want to be wrong hahaha Speaking of analogs... seeing some interesting ones starting to pop up d10-15 including Jan 2014 and Feb 2015. If we get a stable block analogs will prob start lighting up again.