Bob Chill

Whatever "it" is about this progressive Northern stream pattern, it fits the gfs physics the best. Don't know what and it will definitely flip again but for right now, the gfs is the mid range king as long as the general longwave pattern holds in its current form imo.

I didn't like the setup at all for the big euro solutions but I still felt pretty strongly that a weak shortwave would attack from the WSW. About out of time to flip to a chance at 3-6. Northern stream is tricky here. You can't rule things out too early and you can't have confidence in any decent sized storm. OTOH, if my yard gets 1" or more tomorrow then it's 4-4. Hot streaks have limits. Lol

Anyone consider what might happen if the front simply doesn't push as far south and all else stays the same?

Fixed your typo

History/climo says a flip to warm and early end to winter. But this winter has made every long range forecaster remember that it's impossible to predict snow in advance. So, it's impossible for me or you or anyone to have any idea what Feb has in store. Looks to start off the same way this month is prob going to end. Looking beyond that isn't something I do beyond a wild guess like everyone else. Lol

Well, it's a Nina, northern stream dominant, no stable block, and also January. A big storm will have a lot to overcome until Feb imho. Not being satisfied with THIS January is ridiculous.

Low end warning totals for our yards is a reasonable boom here. We've seen plenty of these over the years. The typical screw job when we're in the crosshairs is losing on the front due to temps. I have no strong feeling as to whether or not the jack stripe runs the typical climo line or not but for now, it seems like it should.

Euro is perfectly realistic with upper level setup. Makes more sense than a wound bomb (which would be awesome of course). 4 days out on the northern periphery of the cold snow side of a progressive shortwave? How can you not like that? And not figting temps tooth and nail? Mostly importantly, we are on a heater and yes, it does want to snow here.

I have no time to have fun here today until late but please remember this has never been and currently isn't a big storm setup. It can happen with a vigorous ULL pass but the macro pieces all point towards a quick hitting 3-6/4-8 for whomever is in the middle of the lucky stripe. Neg tilt or closed off shortwave is the boom scenario. Otherwise a power progressive wave/stripe is highly favored imho only

Back during the hot runs in 2014 & 15, we had a lot of things go poof in the mid range only to have them poof back different and snow anyway.

This is a lot better setup leading in than yesterday. An actual cold air pump feeding the storm. There's a lot to like but tricky part is snow stripe will prob be narrow. Statistics and odds and stuff. Lol. Otoh, eps has some closed off bombs. Those def don't have narrow stripes. Haha

If the euro ULL close off idea is right, we don't have as much to worry about with losing latitude as yesterday. H5 has nice highway tracks running SW-NE without a convex "bend. This is a good setup for an elongated moderate event. Anyone in the right highway lane will get a good total. Distribution of snowfall would be more uniform. Just need the hose pointed at your yard

Ala 2014. Lol. From the early Jan storm (7th maybe?) until end of Mar there was something trackable. More than once, while we were tracking a midrange threat, a short range threat would pop.

This is where mistakes are made. When Ma sends you snow and you aren't genuinely grateful for it, she remembers it and you will pay for it. As soon as I accepted that and put it in practice, the MoCo deathband was reborn. I kid you not. Just ask @WxUSAF. He knows. He did the same thing and the connection was made setting up the HoCo-MoCo deathband.

I always root for a big dog no matter but when it comes to dreaming about repeat periods I think more about years like JFM 03 & 14. 96 had a similar period but I wasn't here for that one. I adored the 2010 storms for sure. But deep winter was quick to come and go. The Jan 87 back to back storms didn't have nearly the depth of Feb 2010 but the deep winter that followed was next level. Roads (even main ones) had snow stuck on them for longer than I remember at any other time here. My weeniesm is multi-faceted. I get off on extended deep winter conditions, bay freezes, devastating ice storms, massive water main explosions, kids stuck to flagpoles, and fun winter stuff like that. My weenie is complex

I'm simply not going to sweat a thing until Canada warms up. For me, it's that simple. Even if the pna screws us, as long as the continental air factory keeps running, we're in the game it seems. We haven't had a cold Canada for a few years. Would make sense that it keeps running. On another note... my yard just crossed 4" of precip for Jan. Might easily end up 5" or more. I don't track qpf like snow but I can't even remotely remember a wet Jan like this. Multiple events over 1". Nutty.

Interesting. Top D11 analog is a nasty nasty ice storm in OK, TN, KY, etc and also a sizeable snow event in NC/SC. Overall, analogs show active winter wx all over the east half of the conus in general. Good times.

We both appear to strongly believe in winter "personalities" when they show up. They can have their way and override any and every conventional thought. They can render blocks useless or turn a marginal pattern into a snow parade. It's important not to let recency bias cloud your head. Last year was last year. Last time I've seen anything like what guidance is showing now is the 6 week period from 2/14 - 3/31 back in 2015. Not every winter has a personality. Especially a strong one. Last year's personality fought us tooth and nail door to door in the face of decent longwave looks. This winter appears to have shown its hand. 3 for 3 in two weeks happens like never in my yard. That's meaningful and beyond dumb luck imo. I'm riding the it wants to snow this year personality until it's over. Me thinks it's going to be a while yet...

Ops are showing us that it's active, fast flow, and cold around. The time to jump on a solution is when everything downstream is out of the way and ops can focus on the same shortwave. Last few days had some seemingly similar solutions but the snow came from different digital shortwaves. Once 2 ops show snow the same way from the same shortwave, it's tracking time. Unfortunately it's prob not going to happen outside of 4 day or so leads

I really like what I see down the line. Continental cold air factory appears to run unabated thru early Feb at least. We don't want a big hilly amplified pattern either. I saw some people posting ens mean maps like this a week ago and my first thought was cold/dry and not snow. IF ens means have it right, the PNA ridge is going to retrograde and turn the entire conus into a more broad/zonal trough with cold air wall to wall in Canada. With Feb wavelengths shortening and cold domes pushing hard against it, storm track could run WSW-ENE from the middle of the conus easterward I'm using the gefs for visual reference only. All ensembles have their own version. If we start getting attacked by shortwaves approaching from the WSW, I'm going to get pretty excited. I don't like tracking big amplified storms running uphill nearly due north on approach. Too much can go wrong and volatility wreaks havoc. I like highway style storms that elongate and run along tracks more W-E than S-N. Hard to get a hecs that way but it makes it really easy to get 4-8" of all snow and no temp worries

Dude, that's all you need to know. This is a short/mid range game and it looks "stable" which is kinda an oxymoron because progressive and stable don't jibe but 2014 and 15 had these periods of tracks getting laid down then traffic riding them. Precip shields were all small stripes. But the tracks were aimed at us enough we kept hitting. Time will tell, but this already has that feel. Hit a few more events of any size really and it's practically identical imo

I missed this yesterday and it is a very serious concern and the #1 reason I've been skeptical of getting a property off the info highway. I've done a lot of homework about the future of broadband. For what I do, I have to have a minimum 500mbs connection and it HAS to be stable. I won't go into the long story but I am now very confident my minimum requirements will be attainable everywhere I want to go within 6-8 years tops. I'd move early with the prospect of a stable connection being a near guaranty. Times a changin. We can thank covid and the work from surge for putting the iron in the fire for complete high speed connectivity anywhere. I'd be willing to pony up the cash for hard connection but have no fear of what's coming up in the airwaves

I liked this post too much to leave it just in the LR thread lol

If this late week deal doesn't remind you of how we scored bread and butter in JF 2014 or FM 2015.... you didnt live here or you were down in Avanti's basement eating cheetos

I've been suspecting it but now I'm growing convinced Dak doesn't have the hardwired mental wherewithal to win in a pressure cooker. There are a lot of cases of VERY capable QBs who simply brain fart when it matters most. Cousins is like that. I thought it might just be living in redskin hell but MN didn't fix it. I can go on and on with examples. Complete opposite of the laser focused gunslingers like Rodgers or Brady or (insert many great names) who can back into the playoffs and take over and carry entire teams. What does this mean? It means I'm a big Dak fan because as long as he's in charge, cowboys ain't going too far when it matters most.