Bob Chill

I think it was Bob Smith who took one of Mark Twain's famous quotes and modified it into legendary status. Not sure but the quote applies here: "Never argue with an idiot. They will bring you down to their level and beat you with experience". Now Ehoff is no idiot. Quite the contrary. But he is a contrarian so just insert that word in place of fool and the quote works perfect.

I loved seeing the gfs beef up confluence/surface high thru hr 54. Putting up the good fight at a time where it usually collapses like the WFT's QB hopes and dreams

There's like a dead sea scroll of climo history backing up your statement so I wont disagree much at all. I will add that temps leading in are *potentially* the coldest of the season. DC proper has the highest chance yet at starting off with snow with surface below freezing for hours instead of seconds before onset. That is the fly in the ointment of your definitive statement. Wont know how it breaks for a couple days. Dont completely discount that temps could be friendly for the first time this year. Expecting fail is def where I would put my money if forced to bet tho

At least on the gfs, run over run is better with the upper level eyeball pushing down heights/assisting confluence. Just a little better. Nothing crazy. Should avoid a rug pull this run

I looked at the 0z euro for 30 seconds and really didnt look at much from anything else so I'm just repeating something I may have said earlier (i talk too much to keep track). These events practically always lose ground close in. We're still fighting for how much cushion we have to lose. A bit early to jump on meso trends (imo only). Does today mark the beginning of the giveback period? Maybe. I'll wait until 0z before spending much time with details. We have yet to have any stability in guidance from mid to really short range in weeks. The only thing that wont change with this event is the fact that lots and lots of changes are on the way

This was a rainstorm just a few days ago that resurrected itself into a maybe ok winter wx event. That warm layer is going to be a problem no matter what. I think most already accept that. My yard will sleet before yours. There's like no question about it. Seeing some snow being still quite possible on the front side on Monday is pretty good considering where we just came from. I know you know this and totally agree. But quick scan this morning seemed like somehow an expected warning level event is slipping away again. A bit jumpy, no?

[90 seconds ago BobChill checked in to see if it's over yet] It's over [BobChill does not think it's over but he does like watching good melts from a distance. He will be back later]

I was envisioning the front side of the thurs storm and started thinking about how the onset would look. Even though the high is locked in too far north, it's still strong and there's still confluence. Theoretically, that wall of cold will push back against the warm moist flow and streaming precip from the south. It will be on the move but precip could be heavy at the beginning and snow if things work out. 700mb fronto panels on the 18z gfs agree

That ship may have already sailed but there's still a way to win big if 850s push far enough south and confluence fights off some of the southerly flow with precip. You've heard us say thump to dryslot a lot around here but they've always found ways to not work out last few years. This one has the ingredients so far but much skepticism remains until much closer range.

I'm still laughing at tracker's burger post. I've gone back to it like 5 times today just to chuckle. Most well crafted humor post of all of my 15+ years here. God knows I've seen a lot of funny things over that time too.

This could be a bad one irt ice even if there's heavy rain. It's cold af leading in. Possibly cold enough to freeze the ground. Things like roads/bridges could potentially be in the 20's when the snow/sleet starts even in the close burbs. I've seen rain freeze on contact with air temp above freezing when the night before is cold enough. The good thing is the theoretical snow/sleet would cover everything first and make zr less of a hazard. But temps could be in the teens in some favored places wed night. There's like a better than 0% chance DCA gets below freezing before onset. Sounds like crazy talk but maybe... just maybe...

Scand ridge is blocking up the n atl flow. I've seen far worse op runs recently. I'm like 100% done caring about d7+ on any models. Good or bad it doesnt matter. Good looks turn into doo doo and doo doo looks turn into good. But by the time the mid range hits, it looks nothing like either.

There is. On the euro, that little upper level eyeball due north of us in Canada is beating down the ridge and creating just enough confluence to give us an outside chance. It's not the only thing helping obviously but it's an important one. If that keeps ticking stronger and souther run over run, I'll allow myself to acknowledge a chance at a real snowfall this time. I'm jaded af tho. Heck, we all are. But this is only 72hrs out....

Love the euro/ukie runs. I mean yea, who doesnt want a clean coastal but only a fool would be picky at this point. Well, we're all fools anyway but even foolish fools shouldnt be too fooly now. Classic thump/mix/semi-moist dryslot (attn RR) is setting up inside of 5 days. The setup in front of the storm is really on 2-3 days out. I dont think the trend colder/wintrier is done yet. We'll prob lose some ground in the short range but hard to be mad right now. One thing I say often is when midlevel cold is kinda wimpy with deep southerly flow, sleet will almost always take over sooner than modeled in nova/dc/md burbs. And that's fine with me. Anything but a gullywasher. I need one of these deals to work out to justify my return this year. The struggle is real.

I considered spreading ice melt last night (hate doing that) but figured feb sun angle even with clouds would do the heavy lifting. Lazy decisions are the correct decisions sometimes. Lol

Midrange has been overdoing (sometimes substantially) precip/amping. If that's the case again, a weaker storm would be an even better outcome imo. We'll see how it goes. My gut says thurs wont be the juicy deluge as depicted right now. Still going to be a mess but more of a good mess and less of a bad mess is discussion worthy at this time.

Even with the old gfs known biases with cad, the 12z run shows impressive staying power if you ignore verbatim temps and focus on surface winds. I didnt realize how much it has shifted in just the last 5-8 runs.

Look at 10m winds on the gfs @ hr102 (18z thurs). STILL ne surface flow. Click previous run 5+ times and see how it's trending. No hint of southerly flow now. NE winds all the way down to the carolina's. Strenghtening confluence is doing some dirty work. Euro's version obviously even more stout. Interesting. And only d4 now.

Jokes aside, while too far north for a sweet outcome, there is decent compressed flow/confluence to our north showing up and it's beefing up the surface hp pressing the cad wedge. Still crap flow in the mids and that usually = less snow/more sleet than modeled by gametime. But we're pretty far out in time. Fair to say that an impactful event is becoming more likely as we move thru time.

I've found that when powdery snow is in short supply (or no supply) a couple 8 balls of powdery premium peruvian blow fixes everything and then some.

Dude, it's the weekend. A long one at that. Stop being grounded in logic, facts, and smarts and weenie out a little. We can deal with the cold wet reality when it gets here. For now it's all about digital blues no matter how silly they may seem

Tons of precip so it cant be that. Must be temps. This discussion reminds me of the old lite beer commercials

G'dammit! I saw the euro for thurs then came here and found out there was was lettuce @ 850mb and a cheap white bread bun at the surface. Maybe next time

Look at hr135 surface temps and precip panels. Lol. Most stubborn cad wedge in history

Dont worry, i wont be around much longer at this rate. I'll wait until after it dumps if I come back next year