Bob Chill

We're backing into something decent this time as the short range takes over where the starting point was an epic disaster. All the other ones worked the exact opposite. I mean sure, who doesnt think it can easily epically fail but even if it does it was very different than our other fails

If you brazenly ignore how every single event has trended from D3 to game time, it sure looks pretty good today for thurs. Other than every single one of us, who isn't ignoring the seasonal trend?

I posted the wrong euro h5 panel in my OP (0z instead of 12z) but it doesnt change the point I was trying to make. Compare today's 12z @ hr60 to a string of previous runs. It's pretty sweet to look at and literally a small miracle we're possibly backing into an ok event here.

Here's the 0z euro from the 13th. Just a few days ago. Not a damn thing in the way to hold the cold from hightailing it to the arctic circle. That "sneaky" little closed ULL to our north is practically 100% responsible for the shift towards good fortunes. We often get fooked by sneaky features. This time we needed one desperately and we got tossed a bone.

See the flat h5 isobars over new england? That's blocking high pressure from running away and the antecedent airmass is plenty cold for a time. 3 days ago it was a ridge highway for cold to run away faster than Usain Bolt. Even with "above normal heights", the starting point with temps prior is below normal and fairly deep cold to our north to boot. The crux of our problem (easily escaping cold high pressure) has morphed into something different. It's still a deep trough too far west and not enough blocking to keep the entire thing south of us. When CPA and NYC are bone dry on models we can worry about suppression. I see no way for that to happen in just 3 days tho

If anyone looks at this h5 panel and thinks suppression is even a remote concern, they need to kick themselves square in the nutz

Euro just caused me a huge problem. I disrobed at hr78 but that's normal. Then someone knocked on my door and forgot I had no clothes on. Waiting for arraignment. If I need money for bail I'll post a gofundme link later

It's been a gut puncher this year but if you believe the euro from hrs 48-60 in the mid&upper levels (I do), a disastrous outcome could be further away than we want to let ourselves believe. Disastrous is subjective tho

The things happening in the right direction are at like 48 hours now. Trend is real. Psu's biggest fear is mine too tho. I razz and joke with him but I 100% agree midlevel warmth racing north quicker than the globals show is basically a lock. But how far south with the race start line be? Man, para/ukie/euro all say far enough to get hit flush. Just dont freak out when the trend reverses because it will in the closing 24-36 hours imo

Imo only attm but the best case scenario in my mind is the proverbial thump to dryslot with 75%+ snowfall for all (or 100% in psu's yard). Ccb/deform/backside aint happenin (nude jumping jacks if i bust on this). Love the 12z global suite tho. I guess getting it backwards is helping. Meaning we went from despair/rain towards potentially real snow this time. Opposite of everything I've tracked since coming back

Yea, euro is likely going to add a few miles to the wiggle room cache. Me likey fo sho

Great post. The beauty of getting just a little help from compressed flow to our north is it creates a heavy lifting zone as deep moisture streams in. Won't be 10:1 or greater ratios (imo only) but it could literally snow it's eyeballs out for a time like we havent seen yet this year. I'm going to be skeptical af until it's happening. Nice to see legit mid level fronto as deep moisture is already overhead. Not bad. Not bad at all

You're starting to win me over a little. Scratch the shoulder pads but def don't skimp on the helmet just yet.

So tracker took it upon himself to move my very well crafted humor posts that were inappropriately posted in the wrong thread to the lame ass nobody reads banter thread. I spend a lot of time and energy doing inappropriate things here and it feels like a backhanded slap. I mean I like tracker a lot. I feel like we're old friends. It's a shame I'm going to have to ban him today.

I'm a contrarian mod. I edit dickish and dumb posts in more dickish and dumb directions followed by hiding quality and valuable posts. Seems wrong on the surface but I'm just giving people what they truly want and wont admit to themselves or anyone else really

OH SNAP! I just realized I still have shadowmod powers! Ooooooh... be nice to BobChill... be veeeeeewy veeeeewy noice... I have enough time on my hands today to cause irreparable damage here. Heh. This is going to be sweet

The good news is CRSPR can fix that right up. The bad news is there is strong opposition to changing human dna in the living. This sub makes a strong case against the opposition tho

Superstitions are pretty dumb. Reality doesnt give one F about mirrors, cracks, and my mom's back. But I'll still kill people until they die from it if they start a thread and ruin everything. Not because I'm superstitious. I just find irrational violence very calming and serene.

We all agree. Just dont forget that the description in your post was supposed to have already happened. My muddy yard laughs hysterically at BobChill's posts from a week or so ago

Lowest lows can only be reached after the highest highs have presented themsevles. Feels lofty right now but there is still potential for an even bigger fall from the top. I cant stay up for the euro tonight. DM a recap of the carnage in the early AM so I can start my day off right

Your dives into history are awesome. I love it as I cant drill down to the level of detail you do with memory. That said, if thurs isnt a carbon copy of the Feb 2014 all snow west track, it's an abject failure. Dont lose sight of ingrained irrationality and foolishness here.

If not now, definitely later. If not later, this place will become a padded room. Not sure what outcome I really want to see... hmmm... decisions...

Is nobody getting the "Now I will kill you until you die from it" quote? I mean come on. I'm piggybacking here. Lol

We love to hand wring and gang up around here. It's therapeutic. Nothing personal whatsoever honestly. The only cure is a legit winter event. I suggest getting some shoulder pads and a helmet here shortly

IF ANYONE gets some ridiculous ingrown hair up their ass and wants to either close this thread for a new one OR WORSE... wants to start a storm thread... I WILL F'N KILL THEM UNTIL THEY DIE FROM IT