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Bob Chill

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  1. Bob Chill
    Think of it like this. Our snow climo has always been and always will be streaky. We will forever sit in multi year periods of depression. It's just how it is. Every decade since the 60s has horrendous periods and compact crazy periods. Half of the compact crazy periods are completely unexpected. 2013-16 stretch was the compact period for the 20teens. 2016 was expected but 2013-15 was an anomaly in a good way. Incredible really. And it will happen again. I have no 8dea what 2020s hold in store for us but we're literally 2 good storms away from this winter being forever remembered as one of the good ones. It's already out of the dud gang. And nothing good was waiting for us thru the entire summer, fall, and Dec. But that's changed... A LOT. All I'm saying is if you look at this particular Jan as a frustrating disappointment you're either a glutton for punishment or aren't playing the game right. When a 1 in 10 or 20 year winter is the only way to be rewarded with this hobby, the roi is so bad it makes no sense
  2. Bob Chill
    [RR enters chat] You've had that since 15... maybe not [RR exits chat and pm's leesburg a deck pic]
  3. Bob Chill
    This winter has been damn good so far if you compare it to history here. We all knew this type of predominant pattern was coming. I knew it in July. Lol. But it has overperformed already. Embrace that a little more and let go of low probability dream chasing to compensate. Thank me sometime down the road
  4. Bob Chill
    Root for the broad bowl. Northern stream "V" patterns are common AF and so is the outcome here. We can get one or more in any winter month or enso state. They are winter bread and butter in the US. We're in a disadvantaged but not evicted spot for those. All the wish casting in the world won't make a dent in that fact
  5. Bob Chill
    Well duh. All I see is northern stream. If you can figure out how to turn a shortwave that enters the conus around or north of Seattle or Boise into a Miller A please do it. Otherwise, we are who we thought we were
  6. Bob Chill
    Why is it painful? We've been on the brink of a shutout since it first showed up. Now things are looking better here. You want to rush through snow in your back yard?
  7. Bob Chill
    I'm with you on that. We can't get storms like this one because of unfixable disadvantages... geography and latitude. They don't get ones like this very often. Insanely strong storm and cold cold powder to the coast. They are truly in the perfect spot. Plus, it snows somewhere on the planet every single day. Who cares
  8. Bob Chill
    This argument needs to die. We can call it a Miller A. Doesn't matter. For our purposes it has always looked and behaved on the ground like a Miller B does here. That's why I haven't tracked it. It's very amplified. If the trough wasn't digging so deep it would have been a Miller B screwbie with the oh primary
  9. Bob Chill
    It's a volatile setup. Any rapid developing strong low off the east coast is hard to model. Especially when it starts off as basically nothing thru the deep south. It's a tall order and many years away for a storm like this to be well handled by guidance even just 3 days out. Also, the shifts in track from a mileage standpoint is really just noise. What, 50-75 mile wobbles every 6 hours? That's really nothing and well within any reasonable margin of error for current tech. Unless it affects 50 million people and many weenies. If this storm was modeled off the coast the whole time nobody would care about a 300 mile shift. Lol
  10. Bob Chill
    Absolutely love the E-W orientation of the gradient along with blue pushing into NC. Yet another piece of data supporting a broad/cold trough with shortwaves undercutting and bumping into it as they move more horizontal instead of vertical. I love this stuff. Next best thing to a classic block/coastal setup. The way to get a big storm is a 1-2 punch or just having something really elongated and aiming a hose at us for 24-36 hours. No CCB or "violence". Just steady mod snow for hours with light winds. Sounds terrible right? Lol. If a big storm were to happen in the next 2 weeks, that's the way.
  11. Bob Chill
    Euro doesn't have a shortwave like the gfs in Cali but how could it? Lol. Just give us the big bowl for 2 weeks. Shortwaves will b there for it.
  12. Bob Chill
    Good stuff man. I'm at the point in this game where the type of potential storm determines my desire to get involved. I'm 100% done wasting time on low probability stuff. If that's all there is, I just don't have it in me anymore. ROI is awful. On the flip side, I have pent up desire to watch something from longer leads. So for now, I'll monitoring ens means in the 7-10 day range literally for the first time this year.
  13. Bob Chill
    That's a really tuff question... not sure. I recommend starting a thread asking if another thread should be started.
  14. Bob Chill
    It's just an op run but when you loop h5 vort panels from 174 to the end, it's a pattern on a loop. Other than everything, nothing can go wrong. Until something goes wrong, I'm in on this long track now
  15. Bob Chill
    On the 12z gfs, the setup is obvious by 174. Looked like a solid winter storm on the way for the east. Big precip field as expected. So far this year, I haven't been close to as interested as I am now. Gfs may or may not have the right shortwave to grow but it doesn't matter. Give us that upper level setup, let it spin and wobble for 10-14 days, and the odds of a region wide warning event with cold temps is as good as it gets without classic blocking.
  16. Bob Chill
    Honestly, this is what I've personally been waiting for. Not volatile fast movers with vertical approach vectors. Narrow stripes annoy the F out of me. From an odds and activity standpoint, I absolutely love where models are taking us after the brief warm break. Lot of time to kill tho....
  17. Bob Chill
    It's in San Diego at 186. Check out that broad bowl trough too. These setups create decent size precip fields when they energize.
  18. Bob Chill
    People can laugh at you all they want. My life changed once I started being really really nice to wx models. In the heart nice. Can't fake it. Once I did that the MoCo deathband was reborn. People can say whatever they want but they all know my yard jacked in the burbs multiple times for no apparent reasons. Most evident with Jan 2016. Yea, keep thinking that's a coincidence. One day everyone will see the light.
  19. Bob Chill
    Come on dude. Way too early for that. Go time after 12z today tho. Maybe put in a reservation for a pin and we'll go from there
  20. Bob Chill
    Been thinking the same thing. Way too far out to care much about details for me so the storm itself isn't worth discussing but the fact that both op and ens are showing an active (legit) gradient pattern is noteworthy. We've seen the look on ens a few times but ops always looked different and by the time the broad trough period moved forward into the mid range, it was just regular progressive quick ridge/troughs and not a big "bowl carve". This upcoming window (imo) is starting to really grab my attention. We do best with "broad bowls" with a dome of heavy cold air sprawling north of us. Eta: when I say "we do best" I mean snow comes the easiest. Not the biggest potential or high end storms. That's been off the table all year pretty much in the east. Eta2: this post ties back to my thoughts on available storm vectors. The Fri deal is literally a single lucky one lane vector. I never liked it once as I really do hate those setups. Not worth the time like 95% of the time. Broad bowls open up all of our good vectors of approach. Every single one. And the longer it repeats, odds get really good.
  21. Bob Chill
    Holy f you're right... it's hard to accept something can be that bad but alas, gfs has pulled it off
  22. Bob Chill
    Ji's fave model progression when a new suite comes out... encouragement from multiple models followed by a steaming pile when it counts the most
  23. Bob Chill
    Damn dude. No more pornhub? Oof
  24. Bob Chill
    Verification is on a global scale and the spread is pretty tight. It's been long speculated that different globals are better than each other at different things. Depends on near infinite variables so broad brush verification scores don't really tell us much. Especially when talking about a 50 mile difference in storm track or whatever
  25. Bob Chill
    I'd like to see the eps qpf panels with the light snow event only and not the coastal. It may have come west but my yard is banking on pregame show
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