Bob Chill

Weenie handbook states that the gfs is the best model with the northern stream in the mid range

CMC is further east with the shortwave and a touch more progressive than 0z run. Not far off from the gfs. Just needed to go negative and boom.

Can't speak for everyone but I'd marry the gfs and also be good if she cheated on me 75mi NW.

Neg tilt on the ULL is a must have feature. Nice run no matter what

My browser must be glitching. Every time I click the long range thread I end up in the cope and therapy thread. Weird.

That is the one lol. I've been using analogs more every year to help build a picture of what is possible and what is likely. I wish I could pull euro/eps analogs. CPC uses a superensemble for their lists but those focus on longer range stuff like 1-2 weeks out. Once inside of that window, CIPS has the best bit they only use the gfs op and output is only as good as input haha. I've realized that analogs are a really good tool at identifying threat windows out in time. They also help temper my expectation when threats pop up in a hostile period. I've come to expect threats to pop up on ops when CPC analogs are lit up in the 1-2 week range. Once a threat moves towards the mid range, cips really helps narrow down what we're dealing with.

@psuhoffman I checked Cips analogs and 1996 isn't on the list but there are some notables in the top 5. 3/2/1980 is #1. That one buried the Hampton roads area. Not sure what happened in DC but i think it was a storm. Jan 2011 is #3 lol. We should just blend those 2 and call it a forecast.

Weenie post lol. Euro AI did an excellent job @ d4-5 with the previous storm. Here's the vort panel 96 hours out for 12z sunday: Here's the verification: The surface forecast was rock solid for 4 days out. H5 was really good too except the northern stream verified digging further west and a more amplified system. So if you apply this logic to the upcoming potential storm.... heh

Thanks! That looks pretty sweet. Seeing the push of decent totals deep into NC is awesome. Other than a whiff, my biggest concern in SWVA is the depth of the trough backing off as leads shorten. Solid consensus of an insurance policy with that.

Mitch, what did the ukie ens look like down my way?

I'm actually right at climo which is surprising but also a testament to how bad my climo is LOL. I can't find a detailed climo map but I think climo is around 12" and sitting at 11.1 in January feels good. I was around 12" last year too. If we truly are entering a longer term blocking cycle my move south might not be as bad in the snow dept as I assumed.

If I was your neighbor I'd be feeling pretty good right now lol. Having the euro and ai firmly in your corner is a great place to be. Leads aren't that long and much of the important stuff transpires by hr96. Seeing both euros honing in on that is a big confidence booster. I just want some clean snow so even the icon with its much shallower dig put a smile on my face. Maybe I'm in a good spot but I'm not feeling safe in any way. I tossed the gfs completely after seeing the run over run trend in the euros. My wag is the 0z gfs will make a decisive move towards the euros

With Ji, it all begins and ends in Leesburg. Personally, I'm 100% good with the euroAI and I have wiggle room so I'm personally fine with the entire shield shifting 75 miles NW. It's a backyard sport though. If I could lock up the AI run i would.

Aigfs sucked at 12z but 18z is a drastic improvement

I originally didn't think there was a middle ground solution. That's why I was pessimistic last few days. Seemed like either the coastal got ripping and turned the corner or there was nothing. Northern stream looks more appetizing today. I'd take my chances with this kind of h5 look any day of winter. Won't blow minds or anything but I'd be thrilled with a 4-6" event...

Northern stream didn't dig nearly as far as 12z but still a close off and little energy ball. Shows the middle ground solution. Move north 75 miles and it's like a juiced energetic clipper in the DMV

Globals always struggle with mix lines. They excel at qpf but ptype is often more muddy. This is where forecasters earn their money. Applying historical/past experience and the region's favored climo outcomes can often make sense of this and produce a solid forecast that doesn't mirror any specific weather model output. Hobbiests should do the same. I agree, it was obvious based on soundings and mid level temp panels that the zr threat was overdone the euro. Easy mental adjustment. Models aren't perfect and rarely nail a forecast top to bottom. The nam 3k is unpredictable and inconsistent with qpf output but it's pretty good with thermals. Apply that skill to the euros qpf output and see what happens to your expectations. Snow maps and snow output is an algorithmic map and also a new phenomenon. They didn't exist when I joined Eastern wx and they have always been unreliable. They are a good snapshot/data point tool but without applying critical thought they should never be used verbatim as an expectation. In the past we used to (as a group) decide how much qpf will likely fall as snow and create our own estimates. I still do this and will continue. Snow maps are fun to look at but make terrible wives. Don't marry them. Use your brain. If you are using the ensemble snow maps at short range and setting expectations then you will often not be correct. Euro AI ens are great upper air tools in the mid range and seem pretty good at qpf in the mid range but when you're inside of 48-72 hours, op runs are the heavyweights by a large margin.

The place we live in has gravel roads and they don't plow because it wrecks the gravel base. Spent the last hour driving my truck around packing in tracks. What a blast but it sure isn't snow lol. It was more like compressing hot asphalt. My tires barely left tread marks. It's hilly here so I have a hunch that no 4wd vehicle (without chains) will be able to pull the hills tomorrow AM when everything sets like concrete. Our land is gravel road access too and our gravel drive is a solid hill. Didn't bother messing with that today but should be fun/interesting tomorrow

You're judging a global model based on an amoeba sized piece of real estate and discarding the entire storm. Everyone is entitled to an opinion but based on how the storm unfolded for the entire coast, the euro was BY FAR the best from mid range on in. It literally locked in during the short range and barely wavered. Micro analyzing a global model is using the wrong tool and perspective. No one tool is the best and thats why forecasters are important. To make sense of all the different nuances across guidance. Personally, I stick to a blend of the euro for qpf, track, and progression and the mesos for the fine details like thermals and banding. The last storm went exactly as I expected based on that formula.

In this case we're banking on the trough going neutral or barely positive and that progression starts much earlier than Saturday.

A bit disappointed seeing the changes pretty early in the run. It can swing back but there's not a lot of time for that. Would need the re-dig trend to start basically with 18-0z runs today and not several days down the line. I expect the eps to play follow the leader at this range as well but that doesn't mean as much with lead times being short.

Potential for 15-20:1 ratios is high so the euroAI would still be close to 6" in dc/Baltimore. Hard to hate the run unless you live in Leesburg

Just a bit more + tilt in front of the closed ULL. Minor diff but big implications. But the odds of anything being locked in is zero. That said, my yard strongly approves of this run.... 6-12" cold powder heh

There's a middle ground for a cold 2-4/3-6 event. Something similar to a juiced clipper. That solution has showed up in my yard but that can easily be your yard or both our yards depending on the amp and dig. A neutral trough and modest shortwave pass would do it. A quick hitter but still a snow event worth tracking and enjoying. Cold fluffy powder unlike yesterday's shortbread cake lol. I personally would be happy/not disappointed with a middle ground solution.

Much worse. Very progressive and out to sea. Trough never gets close to neutral and 500mb doesn't close off. Run of the mill weak progressive wave on the ukie