Bob Chill
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Everything posted by Bob Chill
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Soundings like this give me hope that the snow output in my hood is under done. Not sure how this is anything other than snow
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18z Euro shows zr on the ptype maps but the sounding looks like this: This is a sleet sounding imo. The euro zr maps are way over done.
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January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage JV/Banter Thread!
Bob Chill replied to SnowenOutThere's topic in Mid Atlantic
You that visceral reaction you get when you accidentally hard scrape a fork 2-3 inches across a nice dinner plate? I keep getting that reading the storm thread. There's a handful of posters who need to get the fork outta here and stfu. -
RGEM is likely too heavy on QPF. 2.5" total in my yard. .9 snow, 1.1 sleet, and .5 zr. I highly doubt that's right but I can't help having some fun with what kind of glacier that would make down this way. Cleaning up would be a disaster but it almost seems worth it for the experience alone.
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Agree CAPE. I've been looking close at the soundings on the euro for the last 3 days and the ZR doesn't add up. Even when at thin layer around 700mb is +1 with everything else well below and a surface of 20 degrees, the euro is showing zr. That's a classic (easy) sleet sounding. Imho, the euro is missing and/or undoing the sleet amounts by a lot.
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Yea, it basically saved that winter. I know you know this top to bottom but analogs shouldn't be used for back yard level analysis. Back yard busts can happen during a remarkable storm. All storms are unique. The fact that a large east coast storm existed is all that matters. The above list is crazy loaded with east coast storms.
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Don't overlook Feb 2006, 2007, and 2017 storms. This analog list is STACKED
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Check out this analog list.... heh...
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Feb 2007 was the biggest sleet storm I've ever seen. That storm has been a top 5 analog leading into this weekend lol. My buddy's wife is an Xray tech and she said they had a line out the door for 3 days following that storm. Mostly from sledding accidents lol. It was an absolute glacier in my yard. It was supposed to be a big snow storm and I was initially bummed when the flip came in quick but as the sleet kept piling up I was fascinated hahaha
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I'm talking very modest. Qpf distribution is really locking in right now and it's a massive swath. I don't see much of a chance for that to fall apart at this point. The hours before the flip to sleet are almost always wild with WAA snows. Giant flakes and low vis heavies commonly precede the sandstorm. I'm pretty excited for that part. I want the gfs to be right so bad... but until the euro ticks that direction it feels like fools gold
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It's not weenieism to expect a modest de-amp going into the short range. The majority of big storms have a series of mid range model runs that go all ham and then back off inside of 48-72 hours. Every storm is unique and I'm not making any definitive calls and I'm nearly certain that big snow is off the table but I'm feeling OK that big ice threat will keep slowly backing off each model suite.... famous last words lol...
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My yard is a kitchen sink no matter what but I'd take the ICON all day over the ice runs that are popping up. 5" of snow and 3" of sleet is 1 million times better than anything that has a half inch of ice or more. Our forests are loaded with pines. Big ice would be awful to clean up behind.
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January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage JV/Banter Thread!
Bob Chill replied to SnowenOutThere's topic in Mid Atlantic
Recon discussion from the Baja low says that it injested copious dry air from the desert in Mexico and it will turn moist low pressure into dry high pressure when it phases with the northern stream. -
I'm pretty skeptical of the zr output for now. Imo, it would be more sleet than zr. I'll check 18z soundings when they come out but if they aren't much different then 12z I expect much more sleet than the panels posted above
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2" qpf and all snow... idk man. Grape Nut dump trucks on all other models but the gfs found a way to go all snow... lol. I'll take the under and probably A LOT under but there's a chance or something
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This weekends storm is happening during a falling AO. That's less common than when the AO relaxes from an anomalous drop. This is only one piece of puzzle but the large scale features are on our side for a chance at another solid storm late Jan/early Feb
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Ukie decidedly un-amped. Gfs/icon camp
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Getting some practice on these setups. A game for the redux
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I'll gladly take the gfs version. Big change for folks SW is a flip back to snow on the backside. Being more strung out really helps. Thump, sleet, dryslot, sleet, snow... yea, I like this version.
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Extrapolated NAM would be an overturned semi hauling Grape Nutz in my yard lol. Had a feeling yesterday morning that in the end a sleet bomb would be more likely than a top 10 snow event. Odds increasing every suite lol.
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The 6z Sunday sounding looks AMAZING. Mlcape in the 350s and pounding snow. Maybe a rumble or 2?
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Pretty sure I'll mix at some point. 18z Euro fired the first warning shot but 1.75" qpf had already fallen before the mix. Good thing is (so far) all the mix soundings are sleet. Warn nose is @ h7 and there's plenty of cold below to make grape nuts instead of ice.
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I did all the maintenance due on my generator and loader/tractor today. Got gas for the camping stove and indoor propane heater. Still need tighten up all my solar panels and whatever else I have to worry about breaking lol. Hopefully I get sleet and not zr. This storm is getting serious for my area and south....
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I'm thinkin sleet is likely for me even though most models show my area in the safe zone. If it's a qpf bomb like it appears to want to be, climo strongly favors sleet. But it's quite a wall of confluence unlike a scared HP running away so maybe not...
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There is no doubt in my mind the gfs is SPOT ON this time. Someone please ctrl+alt+del it immediately, m'kay? Tx!
