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Bob Chill

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Everything posted by Bob Chill

  1. Bob Chill
    gfs looks pretty crappy to me. That's my in depth analysis
  2. Bob Chill
    Lol- and the FV3 is a big hit. The northern shortwave is slow enough to phase. Didn't expect that at all.
  3. Bob Chill
    0z gefs is pretty bad for our area. Strong support for southern slider.
  4. Bob Chill
    Yep, hanging back helps. With it pressing down out in front of the southern shortwave it compresses and flattens heights which leads to a suppressed solution.
  5. Bob Chill
    CMC is slower with the ns shortwave. This panel really shows it. The kicker on the gfs is still up in Canada on the cmc That timing difference is only like 12 hours and this is 5+ days out in time. We're close to being in the game.
  6. Bob Chill
    Ensembles have been favoring a squashed track as well. The idea is gaining support
  7. Bob Chill
    Northern stream was worse on the gfs. Stronger kicker.
  8. Bob Chill
    What's even better is the monster west based -nao. Gfs op had a nice east based one. I like seeing ops spit out blocking even though it's fantasyland. Building a -ao/nao during the second half of Dec would be a very good sign.
  9. Bob Chill
    I can't stay up for the euro tonight becuase I have to get up early. I'm going to be mad at myself around 1:40am when the euro crushes Raleigh and I should have been asleep hours ago.
  10. Bob Chill
    Yea, Nino's are generally our best chance at a good year. Some suck though. 06-07 was warm and if we didn't get a good Feb event it would have been really bad. 2016 had only one storm. If we missed the Jan event it would have been an epic disaster. 04-05 was sub climo but that was bad luck mostly. Also, Nino's aren't known for Dec snow. General nino climo is warmish Dec and back loaded. I do think this will be an above average winter but it wouldn't surprise me at all if it doesn't happen until Jan-Feb. If we score next weekend then we're off to an unusually good start. And to your last point... yep, we've been on a helluva big storm heater since 02-03. It either means that climate warming supports bigger storms or we regress to the mean over the coming decade or 2.
  11. Bob Chill
    That's every single storm. Sometimes a tiny thing saves us too. Never forget our climo. The majority of winters are sub climo and we can go years in between big storms. Enjoy the chase win lose or draw because it's fun mental exercise but never believe it's going to snow until you finish shoveling
  12. Bob Chill
    I'm keeping it simple. I'm going to hug the snowiest model at all times until there's no model showing snow at all. Then I'll dig up the CRAS link.
  13. Bob Chill
    It needs to be behind the southern shortwave for any interaction. That's not happening.
  14. Bob Chill
    Jan 16 was one in a million. The only time we get stable long lead stuff is when there's a stable west based block. Feb 2010 was similar in that regard but both storms (especially the second one) went through many ups and downs at long leads. Dec 09 had doubts 48-72 hours out. In this hobby it's a good rule of thumb to never get invested until d4 and even that is pushing it
  15. Bob Chill
    It's always part of the game. Too much ns interaction too early and it goes west. Phase in a good spot and we get destroyed. Block instead of phase and we get a southern slider. I mentioned when this first showed up that the pattern fits a good hit and also a southern slider. Models won't have the ns nailed down for prob 3 more days at least. It can easily get much better or it can get much worse. It's insanely rare for a storm to not go through many scenarios as leads shorten.
  16. Bob Chill
    Yea, that sucks. Gfs squashes for the same reason the euro does. Not a good thing. There's time for things to change but our issue is the northern stream. I mentioned it yesterday. Models don't do well with the ns at longer ranges. It's either a phantom sw that ends up not being a problem or its a very real problem. One or the other.
  17. Bob Chill
    That's not the big issue. There's a northern stream shortwave over the NE creating extra confluence. See the bright orange area over NNE? We want that to get out of the way.
  18. Bob Chill
    Gfs trending stronger with the shortwave. Hit or miss it's going to be a stronger storm vs 12z
  19. Bob Chill
    Yea, was looking awesome until the f'n earthquake came along and f'd it all up
  20. Bob Chill
    Let's face it, the Kelvin cells and Hadley waves are all jacked up not to mention the mountains are all torque'd out. I'm out.
  21. Bob Chill
    In longer range news... Both the geps and eps are shifting towards a +pna and a trough in the east. It's not a cold pattern but its not a shutout. Most importantly, none of the ens guidance are far away from a half decent winter pattern. It's def going to get mild after next weekend but I have a hunch we'll be tracking another d11+ fantasy by this time next week.
  22. Bob Chill
    Agree. This is probably the furthest south run we'll see. Eps will almost certainly be north of the op but will prob favor a NC SVA hit.
  23. Bob Chill
    Yea, not what we were looking for to put it mildly. Everything went wrong. Luckily we still have 4 days before large shifts become unlikely. Eps prob won't save us either. They will almost surely follow the op for the most part now that we're inside of 8 days.
  24. Bob Chill
    We need to look on the bright side. It prob can't get any more supressed and we're 6 days out. My money is on a further north solution so we can chase to Raleigh
  25. Bob Chill
    That hp is a brute on the euro. Not just a little suppressed... Congrats SC.
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