Bob Chill
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Everything posted by Bob Chill
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Final ob before my eyes slam shut 4.2" I think 6+ is a lock now
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I'm wondering about ratios. I have 3.7" and it def seems more than 10:1. Seems like models might be busting low on qpf. I've prob gotten .30 and that's through 6z. Most models had me around .20. Even the 3k. Sure feels like a reverse bust in progress... Eta: 3k has my yard around .45 by 12z. Pretty sure I'll have more than that looking at radar.
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3.7" and rates just picked back up. May be up to 5" after this round of heavier stuff moves through. Undeniable trend this year with southern shortwaves packing more juice than models were showing even in the short range. What a year around here. I still laugh at last winter's dire Armageddon drought thread.
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Yea, radar downstream all the way to KY looks great. On lwx radar you can see the shadow cone aiming towards CHO has filled in. That only means 1 thing.... mod snow is rolling in
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Was there really a doubt? I've witnessed countless events where guidance underestimated snowfall in your region. It's not a coincidence. The orographic influence is real. Especially with easterly low level flow.
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There could be a pause or some dead space before we get into ccb and there are no guarantees we'll get that piece. Guidance sim radars all look great through mid morning easy. Who knows... might have over 6" by then...
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Appreciate it but nah, there would be too much pressure. I'd be scared to bust forecasts. Being a weenie makes it fun. I can say whatever i want and not be held accountable for it
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Yea, i started my bar at 2" minimum but bumped to 4" this morning. I'll be at 4 shortly and we still have as much as 18 hours to go. Lol
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Hey man, you are literally a living legend. I'm positive there are at least 1000 people that know exactly what a Jebwalk is and many of them have probably used the term. Think about that... awesome
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Had 3" at midnight so more now. Had a blast in the woods with the teen kids and dog. Snowing nicely the whole time. Crazy how peacefull 3" of snow can be during the night. Snow and sky made it bright enough that we only used flashlights in the rocky parts. Made me want to camp there. Lol Models and radar look great. We got really lucky here.
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Icon dead set and unwavering with the backside ccb precip tomorrow. Hard to believe it might snow until sundown tomorrow. We all tossed the models showing 30 hours of snow in the midrange. One for the memorybanks for sure
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Gettin ready to head to the woods. As long as the cops don't show up it should be a great jebwalk with the dog and teen kids. I set a great example
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I hope the whole coast gets destroyed for 8 straight weeks and we ALL talk about this winter and how great it was. 2015 was actually pretty good here from Valentines day into late March. I got at least 30" during that stretch and my normal annual is around 22-24". 2013-14 was better but back to back good years.
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2" on the dot. Did not expect that before 10pm. According to the nams i have another 6-10" on the way...
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Yellows didn't hold but the bright greens are legit. Best rates/dendrites of the event
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Screen name checks out
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Don't get wrong... i want the nams to be right. One thing that gives it credence is the mix line has moved very close to dc. The low has come in a good bit further north and west than originally thought... heh. I guess we can expect a meso discussion soon with a curly oval around our houses....
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I'm pretty skeptical of that honestly. Looks good digitally but departing lows off the coast and no vigorous closed ull tracking through likely means the backside stuff will underperform.
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Measured 1.3" average and 26 degrees. I hope to get to 2" before the massive dryslot followed by meteors and fireballs and stuff.
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The thing about these "dry slots" is they aren't actually dry. Moisture is abundent but there are areas without a lifting mechanism. Lift is centered over our area basically until the moisture shuts off. I'm sure there will be some lulls at times but shortlived. Radar will continue to blossom over us for over 12 hours. Maybe 24 hours. Lol.
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Main roads are slushy in Rockville but all secondary and side roads are totally covered. Fun to drive my truck in it tho. Plenty of traction going and slowing
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Both 18z NAMs have busted low with qpf through 0z...
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Radar has confirmed there will be no lull any time soon
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Very close to 1" and it's only 7pm. Overperformer so far... lol
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I know it's a difficult time you're going through but at some point you'll have to come to grips with 1) you're getting more than 4" of snow and 2) your analysis is terrible
