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Bob Chill

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Everything posted by Bob Chill

  1. Bob Chill
    Yea, you're fringed on models. Enjoy your 6"+ of cold powder though
  2. Bob Chill
    Fv3 has been really steady as locked in the short range. Much less jumpy than its older brother
  3. Bob Chill
    Cmc looks more like the gfs than the nams/icon
  4. Bob Chill
    Gfs should have this one nailed by 6z tomorrow
  5. Bob Chill
    Yea, i already knew it a week ago but didnt want to sound toooo selfish
  6. Bob Chill
    Just hug the icon and nams until something better comes along. We're in chips fall mode anyway. Jackpot tbd means not known until the event is over. These progressions are twisty turney. No model will nail exact placement of best banding/dynamics.
  7. Bob Chill
    Virga streaming in. If you use the cod nexrad site, once the hole over klwx fills in it means onset it imminent for the burbs. Western folks will already be reporting by then. There's going to be hours and hours of virga through late afternoon
  8. Bob Chill
    Now we're talkin
  9. Bob Chill
    I'm too busy huggin the icon to worry about the gfs
  10. Bob Chill
    Icon goes nuts with the weenie ccb band. Lol. Big hit incoming
  11. Bob Chill
    I'm always very skeptical of nam qpf output. Temps are usually pretty good but i've seen more than my share of qpf busts. That said, i'm hugging the 12k until it implodes
  12. Bob Chill
    I fell asleep before the 0z euro and woke up to a model frenzy. I would have been depressed if i saw the 0z euro. Lol
  13. Bob Chill
    3k mostly agrees with its mentally unstable brother
  14. Bob Chill
    Damn. Even .75 is a crushing. Good 6z and 12z so far
  15. Bob Chill
    Even if you us the standard short range nam reality adjustment it's still .60
  16. Bob Chill
    Thanks coastal but i think you meant to say melts on contact. Lol
  17. Bob Chill
    Normally i totally ignore the srefs but 21z is hugworthy so I'm in.
  18. Bob Chill
    This year is crazy. Almost every southern shortwave has overperformed midrange guidance.
  19. Bob Chill
    Read some obs in the midwest thread. Looks like a positive reverse bust in progress in MO and IL. Extrapolate that at your leisure
  20. Bob Chill
    Good question... it doesnt matter either way. Obs at this point are only temp, dews, and how cloudy your clouds are.
  21. Bob Chill
    Soundings at 18z look pretty good. Before onset the column is saturated down to 925mb. Surface winds are out of the south turning se then e. Def going to be hallucinations but one of the nice things about waa precip like this is moisture in the mids is steady streaming in well before onset. Clippers are the worst with "wasting snow"
  22. Bob Chill
    Alright folks. Locked and loaded with few if any worries. Hope the southern folks get more snow than ice. Ground is frozen and ready to get dumped on. Streets in the western zones will cave with the first flakes. *measure honestly. No slant sticks or "eyeballing a foot".
  23. Bob Chill
    And to think... there was a heated drought debate last winter.
  24. Bob Chill
    Tricky contest this year. Easy to go late because well...it's been warm as F and warm enso is generally a mild fall pattern. Add is the ridiculous amount of saturated ground and everything points to a late start to cold season. However, a very cold Canada pattern looks to potentially lock in this month so intrusions could be pretty cold. Northern plains weenies may have a good October. Lol
  25. Bob Chill
    DCA: 11/30 BWI: 11/11 IAD: 11/2 RIC: 11/14 TB: 3.60"
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