Bob Chill

Hey weenies, figured it would be exceptionally strange for me to not post in the winter thread during Oct so.... TL:DR: Favorable enso is close to off the table. I have no ides if the AO/NAO will cooperate. The north Pac ssta's are moving in the direction of what we want to see but plenty of work to do over the next month. This could be a sign that the Pac jet won't destroy our hopes and dreams and there's no reason at all to think we're F'd yet. My confidence in any outcome is very low still. I have no opinion on QBO/blocking/strat PV etc yet but I am warming up to the idea that this winter may not be a total disaster. Enso probably won't drive the bus as it's pretty late and the enso regions are ambiguous imo. Numerical data for region 3.4 looks ok but I'm more of a visual person when assessing the influence of the eq Pac and right now it just doesn't look all that great. Region 3.4 warmth seems more of a byproduct of the pac having expansive warmth north of the equator in general and not due to circulation patterns responding to nino forcing. In early Sept I thought the pac nino and pdo regions looked like trash. This is not a ssta map that inspires confidence in a good winter in the mid atlantic: I havent been paying much attention to what others have been saying but if enso isn't going to do much then the next best thing is to have a +PDO. The PDO is what helped make the 2013-16 winters favorable. It may have been the primary reason. Hard to say. It's also what made 95/96 a prolific nina. A +pdo during a nina is very uncommon. Especially a mod+ Nina. When I looked at the ssta map in early Sept my first thought was the PDO region looked like crap. Not as bad as a -pdo but pretty bad. Over the last 2 months the PDO region has improved. Not as fast as I'd like but it's better. The area off the coast of Japan needs to cool down but you can see the expanding region of BN ssta's in the western pac compared to early Sept. Hopefully that keeps building eastward. It could be the first clue as to what the predominant pac jet structure ends up being this winter. We only have 14 real weeks of winter and it goes quick. As we've seen recently and countless times in the past, the pac jet is a big deal here and get it wrong for a month and you can kiss half or more of winter goodbye regardless of all other indices. The problem is there is no way to know what the jet is going to do weeks or months in advance. Especially during transition months like Nov and early Dec. However, if Nov features a trough in the west pac and a ridge in the east pac centered near the west coast it's going to push the pdo region into a configuration that can be really friendly here. It would also increase our chances of getting off to a good start in early Dec. If there is a persistent good pac pattern in Dec it's entirely possible it will recur throughout met winter. It's a chicken or egg argument though just like "the blob" in 2013-15. What causes what? Do the ssta temps force the troposphere or does the trop force the ssta's? IMO it's a little bit of both. Weather patterns force the ssta's and once the warm and cool anomalies are well established they can assist with persistance. Gun to head this winter will be close to average in both temps and snowfall and the odds of +climo snowfall are slightly higher than an epic fail. I'm expecting the -EPO to flex at times and I doubt we'll get SE ridged to death.

BWI 11/11 IAD 10/31 DCA 11/17 RIC 11/11 Tie Rainfall 10.10"

I never expected much snow but I didn't really anticipate this much cold rain. What a miserable muddy mess. I'm in full on root like F for warm and dry mode.

Grass is trying to cave. Not expecting much. Too close to mix line and too warm to start but I expected that for days so not a bummer. If I get an honest inch I'll be satisfied. Watching snow fall never gets old though

Flakes falling in rockville but the flames and vapor trails behind them have me concerned

Gfs wont get any credit from many but it appears to have schooled the euro several runs in advance. Nice run. One more shift and DC will be happy.

Likely. 540 thickness is just north of the m/d. 546 would likely be the r/s line. Cold air and slp in good spots

I can extrapolate from here

I'm interested. Fast moving progressive patterns suck for long lead tracking so analyzing every 6 hours is a waste of time. I thought everyone wrote this off already though?

Rock solid event today. Over 5" snow, heavy rates for a couple hours, daytime snow, instant stickage, thundersnow/sleet for a few lucky folks, complete road coverage, sleet and zr topper, minimal rain after snow tapered off and my yard exceeded climo... Helluva lot to like right there!

Last hurrah band is bad ass. 5" with compaction from sleet earlier. Great event.

Yep, climo+ year in the books. Best worst winter ever.

4.1" Rockville. Might top 5" before sleet. Going to be close...

No doubt in my mind. At least for my yard. 3"+ in under 3 hours is impressive with any storm around here.

3" as of 8:40 in NE Rockville. Best thump since Jan 2016.

Euro already busted

The only thing you need to worry about is the flip to sleet timing. Stop trying to extrapolate something that isn't going to happen.

You're worried about the wrong thing. Lift is oriented W-E as is the moisture flow. Look to your west and not south.

What's better than 1 MoCo deathband before 9am? Answer: 2 deathbands before 9am Should top 2" here shortly

Radar hallucinations have begun early it seems. The dynamics and lift are overhead and will remain there until well after a flip to sleet and zr. Enjoy the snow while it lasts and stop worrying about things that shouldn't be worried about in the dc/balt/burbs areas.

Straight dumping in Rockville. Close to or over 1" already.

Euro is the dryest model through 18z tomorrow. .2-.4qpf until you get west of the blue ridge.

This storm should also put us both above climo. This has been the most disastrous climo+ year in history though.

You'll like the ukie. Gfs/ukie blend is money

After double checking all the differential equations on the gfs through hr18 I've comfirmed that the 0z run is dead balls accurate.