Bob Chill

Personally, I could strictly look at 500mb and below all winter every winter and do totally fine figuring out how things are going without knowing a thing about the strat. We can have plenty of trop blocking without any type of warming event or disruption and vice versa. The only thing we really care about as snow weenies is to not have a combination of a strong/cold strat pv AND a strong +AO. Outside of that (IMO) us weenies are all better off not worrying about it.

This time is different in that the current potential -NAO never showed up on weekly or seasonal guidance. It appears to have snuck in under the radar which should be expected because long range nao forecasting and accuracy doesn't exist. We're at 7 day leads right now. Still not close enough to go all in but close enough to believe some sort of -nao is happening. How long it lasts and how it affects our wx will be discussed under the microscope for the next week straight. Worse things to discusss in Nov I suppose

I think the poetry thread happened in 2015 before the switch flipped but I'm old and memory and stuff... Like I said before, "favorite" anything in this hobby is 100% subjective but one of the metrics I use to rate a winter is how much dead space and how interesting it was. 09-10 is no doubt the king of snow totals. It was basically ridiculous. But between the Dec event and late Jan sneaky slider there was a lot of thumb twiddling. The last week of Jan through the second Feb storm was the greatest 2 week tracking period ever and there isn't a close second. But being honest, missing out on the late Feb storm did bum me out more than a little. The lack of any real winter wx from the 2nd Feb storm on was a let down to me as was the speed that 50" of snow melted. The way the Dec storm got washed down the sewer on Christmas was a little depressing also. 13-14 had me glued start to finish. It was never boring and dead space was limited. I pulled off over 16" with the Feb storm so there was a "KU" in my yard and the barrage of arctic air and cold snow was remarkable. We had some ice that year to complete the buffet. I distinctly remembering in late March (after 16 events stretching from 11/27 to 3/30) being worn the F out from tracking and was actually looking forward to the door closing on that winter. For those reasons 13-14 takes the top spot in my book but our "books" are very personal.

It's a subjective grading system but for me 13-14 was the all time greatest tracking winter of my life. Minimal deadspace, events from first week of Dec to last week of March, and some damn crazy stuff like snow in the teens multiple times including March. Even had an all snow west track! The low temps we had at times were crazy too. Bay froze shore to shore at the bridge... one helluva year on so many levels. Prob a function of a nasty +AO through many recent years. Not a good pattern to get clippers running through central VA....

IMO our region has the most near misses than any other location in the east. The good thing is we generally get some chances every winter. The bad thing is too many things can often go wrong. The "wrong list" is proportionate from west to east. My area is ok most of the time as forum divider storms usually have enough frozen precip to put me somewhere in the middle. Once you get as far east as your hood it becomes an island of sorts sometimes. You root for different things with events that hit you flush. If we get some blocking that changes the disparity in your favor as locations across our sub become more equalized.

For reasons that nobody really knows for sure... the NAO has an embedded decadal or multi-decadal cycle. It's streaky over longer time scales. Obvioulsy we've been experiencing the bad streak lately and luckily "stole" 2 damn good winters during this big +NAO streak. What made the 2013-15 stretch so special (and unusual) was the # of snow events. I'm way too lazy to look it up but I'm pretty much 100% sure you will find few if any winters in the last 100 years that featured a strongly + NAO and 10 or more snow events. It was a remarkable stretch that will probably never happen again in my lifetime. It's not like we need some raging -nao to get snowfall but that stretch was raging positive. From a wx enthusiast perspective, those back to back winters should be at the top of the anomalous/unusual list. I'm really hoping current guidance is a sign that the bad streak is over. A -nao really helps with marginal setups and tricky stromtracks. We don't even need below normal temps in the heart of winter to get snow with a nice stormtrack. Cutters can still happen with a -nao but even with those have a much better shot of front end snowfall when HP is doing like 90mph NE into the Atlantic. I'm really sick of cold high pressures running away all winter.

This thing that we often lose sight of is the fact that the NAO domain is simply not predictable beyond a week or 2. It's always been that way but with the advent of weekly and seasonal guidance it's easy to focus your eyes on those forecasts. However, the NAO can no doubt be persistent at times and I agree with your last statement. If AN heights do lock into the domain space over the next few weeks then forecasts that show it continuing are much more likely to verify than ones that show "a flip".

I said this in a different reply somewhere but the only reason I took a break is the board became the opposite of fun for me. Hopefully this year doesn't turn into a whine and cheese dumpster fire again. Nobody wants to read that crap 24/7. This board isn't supposed to be therapy for unstable people who can't handle reality. It's supposed to be a place where we discuss weather objectively for better or worse. Don't get me wrong, I get annoyed with our climo as much as anyone else at times and I vent and poke fun at futility too but I don't feel the need to make sure every single person hears about it every 5 minutes for 100 straight days. If there's one piece of advice that every single weenie needs to think about it's don't get invested in any snow event until it's inside of 72 hours and even that is often pushing it. 95% of our events aren't resolved (or even real) until we get into the 3 day or less range. A d10 fantasy op threat isn't a threat. It's a random idea that there may be a threat. The subtle nuances that go into us actually getting snowfall can drastically change the outcome nearly every single time. If you're going to freak out with every failed event, at least wait until it's a legit rug pull before freaking out. IMO- legit rug pulls don't even start happening until inside of 72 hours but that's just me.

I agree 100% with @psuhoffman last post. I'm just trying to see a clear path to how we don't have a sh!tty December. For winter as a whole I really have no strong feelings one way or another yet. Recent trends suggest seasonal/weekly guidance screwed up early Dec as it's been evolving into something far different than first shown. Just a week or so ago the CFS weekly showed this for week 4 That's already evolved into this: EPS/weeklies are doing the same type of thing. The big +AO/NAO shown run after run may in fact be completely wrong. I think that's the only thing worth thinking about right now. How do we enter and move through the first half of Dec. If it features blocky flow with a -AO and/or -NAO then idgaf what any seasonal guidance has said this fall. Winter is off to a much better start than any I can think of since the 09-11 stretch.

Yea, keep it simple. Anything that shows the monthlies for Dec are in trouble is worth mentioning. Like this:

I suppose the most important thing to watch now is whether or not seasonal guidance is onto something or just another terrible bust. We certainly don't want what the cfs or euro monthlies are showing. Barf I am curious as to how the weeklies roll the current d15 forward. Dec is only 3 weeks away now...

True but the anomalous cold shot was nailed at long range. Just a timing deviation. The cold front itself has been well modeled by the ops. When they showed a trailing wave snowstorm we all assumed it was fantasy. I get what you're saying pf course. A synoptic even at 7 days on an op has equal chance at any outcome including nothing at all. Lol

@PSU It is an interesting look and there's been a slow but noticeable trend with all guidance showing the NAO may start to cooperate. Or at least not be super hostile. The GFS op started spitting out panels like this 3-4 days ago and it caught my eye because it was one after another and not fleeting. This is just a recent run. A bunch of previous op runs kept showing different variations. Now the GEFS are catching on so maybe it's not fantasy. Does it really mean anything though? Too soon imo but if there's a continuation and verification as we close out the month then all seasonal/weekly guidance for Dec starts looking very suspect. Which is a good thing in this case. haha @WxUSAF Yea, no sense worrying about mid latitude patterns yet. Nov is notorious for fooling us with good and bad mid latitude looks. The high latitudes are different and they already look far better than I thought before Nov started. Having favorable high latitudes but crappy mids isn't that bad because it can flip good quickly. Takes a lot more work when high latitudes suck...as we've seen for way too many years in a row now...

Figured I'd open a thread for Dec specific discussion now that it's almost in range with ens guidance and it will soon be a hot topic as we roll through the second half of November. As I've said multiple times, I don't have high expectations but that doesn't mean I think a lame Dec is a lock. Seasonal/weekly guidance is pretty unanimous with Dec featuring a mean +AO/NAO. And that's certainly possible as it's been a recurring theme for quite awhile now. It's worth discussing the opposite because the Nov mean AO is looking likely to go down as a solid -AO month. If ens guidance is right, the Nov AO should finish at least 1sd BN. There is a decent correlation with Nov AO readings below -1 and December also featuring a -AO. I dug this spreadsheet out of my archives showing Dec -AO lower than -1.0 and the seasonal snowfall at DCA. Not a bad list but like all lists like this... there are notable outliers and ENSO plays an important role. Overall as a group, having a -AO points towards higher odds of near to above normal snowfall than a disaster. We've discussed this at length so nothing groundbreaking here. 1961 has been showing up at the top of CPC analogs for a while now and it caught my attention so I pulled some composites for Dec 1961. The 61-62 year as a whole kinda sucked in our area for snowfall but that stat is so volatile so you can't just look at that and expect the same result. One notable thing about Dec 61 is it featured a fairly stout -NAO (especially second half) on the means. Total coincidence or possible clue? Not sure but worth taking a look at. First half Dec 61: Second half: I'm not thinking Dec 61 overall is a good analog for this year and even with a -NAO the general pattern that year was so-so at best but looking at the NAO in isolation it does pique my interest a little. Ops and ens have been consistently hinting at fairly stable AN heights in the NAO region during the second half of Nov. I don't see all of this as a screaming signal for a -NAO or AO in December yet but looking at all guidance right now it makes me wonder if in fact all these little hints are legit signs that Dec may be a blocky month even though seasonal and weekly guidance says hell no.

BWI 11/11 IAD 10/31 DCA 11/17 RIC 11/11 Tie Rainfall 10.10"

I never expected much snow but I didn't really anticipate this much cold rain. What a miserable muddy mess. I'm in full on root like F for warm and dry mode.

Grass is trying to cave. Not expecting much. Too close to mix line and too warm to start but I expected that for days so not a bummer. If I get an honest inch I'll be satisfied. Watching snow fall never gets old though

Flakes falling in rockville but the flames and vapor trails behind them have me concerned

Gfs wont get any credit from many but it appears to have schooled the euro several runs in advance. Nice run. One more shift and DC will be happy.

Likely. 540 thickness is just north of the m/d. 546 would likely be the r/s line. Cold air and slp in good spots

I can extrapolate from here

I'm interested. Fast moving progressive patterns suck for long lead tracking so analyzing every 6 hours is a waste of time. I thought everyone wrote this off already though?

Rock solid event today. Over 5" snow, heavy rates for a couple hours, daytime snow, instant stickage, thundersnow/sleet for a few lucky folks, complete road coverage, sleet and zr topper, minimal rain after snow tapered off and my yard exceeded climo... Helluva lot to like right there!

Last hurrah band is bad ass. 5" with compaction from sleet earlier. Great event.

Yep, climo+ year in the books. Best worst winter ever.