Bob Chill

Everything is right down the middle. Not bad enough to worry and not good enough to like it. lol. I'm not thinking we have much of a chance for the next 2 weeks unless something runs the gauntlet. Would be nice to get the atl & pac to play nice together this month. Sometime around the 24th-25th would be acceptable.

It's a shame today's band of ULL enhanced precip is just a little too warm. This could have easily been a light event for most. OTOH- we generally need multiple chances before something happens. We've had a few already so if the variable pattern coming up isn't too hostile maybe something pops up before mid month.

Exactly and your OP was poking fun at grossly overstated red flags and not agreeing with it

It's always perspective. I was never impressed overall leading into this year and expected Dec to really suck until recently. I'm with you. If we don't torch second half and have some winter wx of any kind during the last 10 days of the month it will be satisfying. It's a bit of a shame the current storm didn't happen 2 weeks later. We'd be shoveling 2-6" right now. Heh

If this spread is where we are in 2 weeks then we're in the game at a time where we don't need an impressive airmass No signs of the stout blocking we've recently had returning anytime soon but I'm not picky early season and what I'm seeing is improving chances for some sort of event as we approach mid month.

The only thing wrong is the WAR (west atlantic ridge). That usually causes storms to cut west of us. Even with that it's not a shutout look. Not exciting but not a disaster. It's also not terribly far from a good pattern.

Long range looks like perfectly typical early winter in these parts. Not too warm, not too cold, and not snowy without a fluke. As we move later into the year, the same type of pattern has an easier time working out in some fashion. For now we just sit back and wait. Prob for at least 2 weeks.

Hrrr is rippin fatties in mt airy at 10z. Image won't embed or I'm dumb but here's the sounding https://imgur.com/a/SVaZ9WN

This is the complete game Turgeon has been looking for to back up their ranking. I've watched most games and the Terps have had too many slow starts and sloppy play. Start to finish great game today.

Nothing is coming easy anytime soon and I think we can all agree on that. Not impossible tho so just letting the tape play out for a couple weeks and letting the chips fall is about all we can do. December is a pretty low prob winter wx month. Especially the first half. Imho- the next real window will be a progressive +pna period. Not optimal but workable. Just a guess.

In some dead space with no imminent threat worth dissecting and huge spread in the long range so we don't really have much to discuss there. However, the pattern in general isn't a shutout so something interesting can pop up any time. Until then we quiet. It is kind of amusing that we start Dec tomorrow and nobody has a clue how the month will shake out in the end. Dec events don't come easy but gut hunch is saying we'll get a couple shots during the second half of the month. Maybe a 1-2' NC to Philly coastal on the 24th. Big block will keep sne under blue skies.

Yea, recurring theme with ens showing the pna going up and it's logical. Prob fight through some crap first but I'm expecting a +pna period of a week+ sometime in Dec. Happens often after a storm cycle in the west. Rockies/Sierra etc look to get a steady stream of good storms. When that cuts off we'll likely see a big ridge out there as everything rolls forward. I'm patient and have no problem waiting until mid Dec or beyond before we get some legit chances. No real troubling signs anywhere. Heck, ens show a closed epo ridge in 10-15 days. We know exactly what a +pna/-epo/+nao can do because we've had a lot of that last 4 years. It's not perfect and good events don't come easy but keep that pattern going for a week or 2 and odds favor some sort of event.

Agree. Concerning is when we're staring down the barrel of a toaster bath pattern. I'm not seeing that. Quite rare to stay below normal temp wise when the AO flips positive and that's pretty much a lock. Pattern doesn't look worse than 1 step away from something workable though. Much better than needing 2-3 weeks and like 4 steps to get into the goods. If NA turns into a giant bubble of warm pac air I'll get concerned.

Of course I'd much prefer a -ao but the long range doesn't look bad at all anymore. There will likely be a shortlived period of zonal/pac air next week but there's universal agreement on the pna going up and keeping us in a "non-shutout pattern". My gut hunch is the epo will not be hostile either. I'm also not sold on a long duration big nasty +ao setting up shop. A lot of hints being dropped that blocking (of some kind) will be close by. We all want a perfect pattern 24/7 but that's no how it works. Ultimately we just need to spend as much time as possible in a non-shutout pattern and just let simple odds take over. Our area typically needs 4 legit chances per event that actually delivers. Keep the non shutout pattern going, the chances coming, and we'll score. There's nothing worse than a 4-6+ week shutout pattern setting up during met winter. I'm not seeing that threat at all right now and that's a good reason to have a happy weenie

Not trying to insult anyone because the strat is complicated and there are some sharp people that know a lot about it.... but... I've read plenty of strat analysis over the years and imho we'd be better off ignoring it for the most part. The connection to the trop is too volatile and unreliable. A lot of false hope and/or unexpected outcomes. The SPI (strat posting index) is dead nuts reliable though cuz when the strat gets more attention than the surface we're in a close the blinds pattern nearly 100% of the time.

I wasn't implying that a transient 50/50 is better than a -ao or nao or anything like that. I was just saying that 50/50 has the most direct impact in keeping upstream waves from cutting west of us. We get west tracks with a -ao/nao and it's nearly always because there was no 50/50 to block a storm from gaining too much latitude. Most of our big events in +ao/nao patterns are lucky timing with a 50/50 on the move. Another thing I've been noticing lately is wave spacing has been really favorable. Storms are getting wound up without getting beat up, sheared, or tugged around by crowded flow.

Yep, best setup is always a -nao with a 50/50. Even in progressive flow a transient 50/50 can still help block an upstream shortwave from scooting north of us. Looking at the loops of multiple recent gfs runs there's a recurring theme of tracking pretty strong LPs through the 50/50 space. Oh please please please let this be the dominant storm track this season... Agree 100%. We're seeing a lot of features we want working in unison. Started early this month and isn't letting up. Ens agree on a +pna building during the first week of Dec. If flow remains active and doesn't dry up we'll be in the game for a warning level event and not dealing with jacked up flawed light events.

18z gfs has like 5 50/50s in 2 weeks. Lol. The one 10 days down the line pops a -nao. I'm going to start paying more attention to the 50/50 area because if LPs hanging out around there becomes a persistent feature this winter then good things will happen by default. A 50/50 is the ultimate block for MA snow events. Has more influence on storm track than the AO or NAO. I highly recommend looping the NA or NH 18z gfs h5 and mslp anomaly panels and check it out. We can go entire years without a legit 50/50 and the gfs is throwing them out there like rice at a wedding

At least if we fail this weekend the gfs says maybe the storm after the storm is the one

We had quite a few clipper type systems in 13/14 and 14/15. Somewhere in the range of 5-10 unless my memory is completely failing. Which is possible. Nina's in general have clippers every year too. I don't think there's been a lack since 2010. We've had a hard time getting the northern stream to dig under us the last 2 years though.

No doubt. The only way I'd be bummed about an inch or so of snow would be if all the models give me 4+ 24 hours before the event.

Gfs is pretty much the same as the 12z euro

Yes, each run is initialized with brand new data then model physics takes it from there.

BWI: 22.3 DCA: 14.1 IAD: 25.7 RIC: 13.3 TB (SBY): 11.5

Hoco/Moco death band is evident on this panel.