Bob Chill

I'm just a few miles from the dam at Smitn Mtn Lake

All guidance has bumped south with qpf (in their own way) but I've already picked up an inch and it's steady light with bursts of mod high ratio snow. This is a tricky storm with 2 distinct areas of synoptics and dry air entrainment in between and around the periphery but so far in my yard guidance is busting too low. I hope that translates eastward into your yards.

Getting kinda lucky I think. Picked up up an inch overnight/early AM and steady light high ratio snow. 16 degrees.

It's been snowing lightly for the last 30 mins and had flurries earlier today around 10-11am. Not much virga. When radar shows 10dbz or higher its making it to the ground.

My yard has been riding the line between 3-6 and 1-2 and I've pretty much been expecting 2-3" tops but being so close to whiter pastures keeps me interested in the idea of a more impactful event. The 12z euro ai/euro/gfs all bumped better qpf northward. Not a ton but all 3 did and it's encouraging. If 18z does the same I'll be more confident in the 3-6 idea. Ratios will be high no matter what. Blacksburg's AFD stated 15-20:1 rations and I believe it. Upper level lows are often fluff bombs and it's plenty cold. I could potentially get close to 6" on .30qpf. RIC could get 4" on .20. Time will tell. Keep expectations low and enjoy the F out of a boom if it happens

It's pretty wild but not totally unbelievable that a super tight gradient sets up somewhere. It's a cutoff low and upper level flow won't be pushing the qpf field out along the periphery like with the majority of storms. I don't think it will be like the nams lol but it will be pretty tight along the northern edge.

Hi res mesos aren't doing well in the short range imo. It's snowing here right now by smith mtn lake right now and fcx shows a decent shield deep into swva. It's still light snow but heavier than flurries. 3k nam and hrrr show nothing like that Mesos are jumping all over the place every 6 hours while the globals like the gfs/euro have been pretty steady with their qpf forecasts last 3 runs. If I lived over by RIC I'd stick with what the globals are showing then pay attention tomorrow in real time as to where the banding sets up.

Light snow falling down here. Not much virga. Radar returns are light but it's making it to the ground. Not expecting much. 1-3 or something like that.

I'd say you're good. 29 or 81 are always taken care of. Main roads in NC get brined like the dmv. Side streets are last in line or ignored completely in rural areas but not main roads

Point Lookout gets a couple inches. I wish the whole shield could bump 75mi NW but the clock has prob run out on those kinds of changes. I'm pretty skeptical of the euro run for my yard even though it looks good on the map.

Euro op just took a sledge hammer and pounded it flat lol. Good times!

Positive tilt doesn't do us any favors but we're in trending phase. Every suite shows the shortwave digging further south. Which is the most important piece because having a low track overhead isn't going to work. The current -AO tank wasn't modeled well so it makes sense that this is trending further south. It also has a gulf connection so moisture can be tapped well west of us. It's very unlikely to morph into a significant event but it has potential for something modest. Like .25-.50 qpf all snow or something like that. Nothing else worth watching rn so it's all we got.

Ukie's version of next week has a dominant southern shortwave. Nothing is resolved and there is potential for this to become something more interesting than a messy temp problem frontal passage

Over the last 10-15 years of sref observation, the only thing the SREF has been useful for is giving unrealistic hope when there is little. I'm feeling pessimistic down here. Blacksburg is calling for 4-8" and I'm feeling under 3

SREF tossing a bone lol

Shortwave is across guidance and it has a gulf/baja connection but it's not impressive for now. Run of the mill but has trended towards a better pass underneath us. Cmc has it and h5 looks half decent

Under 7 days away

I like that general LW pattern a lot. Precip isn't usually a problem unlike an amplified +pna/-epo pattern with the ridge axis over the west conus. The pna/epo pattern is colder but it difficult to get moisture laden storms. Lots of fronts and high-pressures without big synoptic systems. The pattern in your post has multiple ways for some juice in the system. I've been casually watching the cfs weeklies and they've been looking tasty for the second half of Feb for at least the past week. Similar to what you posted just 2 weeks later:

I wish weather worked that way lol but ma nature on has one way of doing things... like it or not, you get what you get and that's that... lol My climo down here is a mix of the MA and SE. There are several setups that aren't all that uncommon where my yard and the DMV gets all snow in the same similar range. I'll mix or rain a lot more but I'm looking really forward to the first clean decent sized event where we celebrate together. It'll happen. Just a matter of when.

3-6 idea down here still hanging on.... I want this to hit the DMV as much as you folks in the dmv but gotta root for the back yard too

Not sure how much things can shift with the time left but euro AI made a notable jump NW....

Not a model I like to hang my hat on with qpf but I'd be thrilled with the 12k nam's idea. Extrapolated 3k was decent too lol