Bob Chill

Of course I want the last 2 runs verbatim lol but it seems so unlikely.... Our land is on the east side of smith mtn at the base and our temporary home is at the base on the west side. I've wondered since we moved here what a true noreaster with CCB would look like on both sides. Smith is the first big rise in the western piedmont. About 1,200 vertical. That has to have some orograpic influence with strong E/NE flow. Sure likes to wring out drizzle during April easterlies lol

H5 was a near carbon copy which is crazy surprising. It would take so little from the last 2 runs to hit the 95 corridor. Low bombs and is basically vertically stacked before it pulls away. Like you, I totally didn't expect this run wtf gfs lol

Think of it like this, you're flying on a jet into 150mph headwinds and it's nice and smooth. Would never know it's windy up there. That's the wind map. Suddenly your drink is on the ceiling and people are puking. That's the vorticity map

No they don't. They show 2 very different things. Vorticity (or Positive Vorticity Advection/PVA for our purposes with storms) shows rotation and lift in the atmosphere. This is caused by upper level level winds so the plots bear resemblance but they are not the same things at all. Vorticity maps should be visualized 3 dimensionally while wind maps are basically 2 dimensional.

Vort maps are the best depiction of upper level energy and how it progresses. Vorticity is where all the good stuff is born.

CIPS analogs from the 12z gfs run are quite weenie'ish... lol https://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=SE&fhr=F108&rundt=2026012712&map=thbCOOP72

Iirc, gfs had a hot streak in JFM 2014. It did a good job picking up fast flow shortwaves in the mid range when Dr no was Dr no'ing

That's the middle ground I've been thinking about. That or the lead shortwave doesn't dig as far. There's plenty enough on the table to keep us interested in tracking some snow in the area. A big bomb has never been likely but some sort of accum event isn't off the table either

Euro AI is mostly a hold with a tick east... dangit

This is a touchy setup to put it lightly. Will be a bit of a gut punch if the euro brothers whiff/deteriorate.

Gefs trend.

This setup is much different. Far more boom bust potential and complex progression than the recent storm. Im not saying I think a boom is likely but the chance of significance shifts in any op/ens suite is FAR greater than the last storm. This is not a 2k mile moisture plume from a typical shortwave

12z Icon ensembles made a notable improvement with mean qpf.

Weenie handbook states that the gfs is the best model with the northern stream in the mid range

CMC is further east with the shortwave and a touch more progressive than 0z run. Not far off from the gfs. Just needed to go negative and boom.

Can't speak for everyone but I'd marry the gfs and also be good if she cheated on me 75mi NW.

Neg tilt on the ULL is a must have feature. Nice run no matter what

My browser must be glitching. Every time I click the long range thread I end up in the cope and therapy thread. Weird.

That is the one lol. I've been using analogs more every year to help build a picture of what is possible and what is likely. I wish I could pull euro/eps analogs. CPC uses a superensemble for their lists but those focus on longer range stuff like 1-2 weeks out. Once inside of that window, CIPS has the best bit they only use the gfs op and output is only as good as input haha. I've realized that analogs are a really good tool at identifying threat windows out in time. They also help temper my expectation when threats pop up in a hostile period. I've come to expect threats to pop up on ops when CPC analogs are lit up in the 1-2 week range. Once a threat moves towards the mid range, cips really helps narrow down what we're dealing with.

@psuhoffman I checked Cips analogs and 1996 isn't on the list but there are some notables in the top 5. 3/2/1980 is #1. That one buried the Hampton roads area. Not sure what happened in DC but i think it was a storm. Jan 2011 is #3 lol. We should just blend those 2 and call it a forecast.

Weenie post lol. Euro AI did an excellent job @ d4-5 with the previous storm. Here's the vort panel 96 hours out for 12z sunday: Here's the verification: The surface forecast was rock solid for 4 days out. H5 was really good too except the northern stream verified digging further west and a more amplified system. So if you apply this logic to the upcoming potential storm.... heh

Thanks! That looks pretty sweet. Seeing the push of decent totals deep into NC is awesome. Other than a whiff, my biggest concern in SWVA is the depth of the trough backing off as leads shorten. Solid consensus of an insurance policy with that.

Mitch, what did the ukie ens look like down my way?

I'm actually right at climo which is surprising but also a testament to how bad my climo is LOL. I can't find a detailed climo map but I think climo is around 12" and sitting at 11.1 in January feels good. I was around 12" last year too. If we truly are entering a longer term blocking cycle my move south might not be as bad in the snow dept as I assumed.

If I was your neighbor I'd be feeling pretty good right now lol. Having the euro and ai firmly in your corner is a great place to be. Leads aren't that long and much of the important stuff transpires by hr96. Seeing both euros honing in on that is a big confidence booster. I just want some clean snow so even the icon with its much shallower dig put a smile on my face. Maybe I'm in a good spot but I'm not feeling safe in any way. I tossed the gfs completely after seeing the run over run trend in the euros. My wag is the 0z gfs will make a decisive move towards the euros