Picard

I'm still skeptical of much in NNJ - the NAM phases things out from west to east, when we know in fact the cutoffs can be quite sharp.

That's happened a few times.

Most of it misses the area.

Bust likely. There's no way we're getting what the wetter models are showing. I'd say the NAM has the best chances of being correct and it wouldn't be out of the question to say that's even overdone for some.

Put a quarter inch on the bingo board within the next 7 days in NNJ and you might luck out. Bonus bucks if someone gets to a half. Everything else is clown maps until there is stronger evidence of a significant pattern developing.

If it follows the overall trend of recent years, much of it will develop too far north, and move further north. Anything in this area is typically very spotty.

That's interesting. I have always believed it would be hundreds of years (150+) before things went catastrophic. I can question my own beliefs sometimes, and the fall heat is one of those times and the now more consistent dryness too. One thing is certain, whatever type of weather it is, things are running in more extremes, which is costing money, and putting more lives at risk. The sad thing is, I don't know what can realistically be done quickly about this issue, but I'll save that for another forum.

Yes, in a few towns. Most aren't seeing anything. Maybe overnight, but I have some doubts.

Looks like rain changes are nil for most tonight. What are all of those spots all over the radar? Doesn't look like typical rain. Radar glitch?

The line passed through here and was a nothing burger. Picked up another 0.08" to bring the two day total since Tuesday evening to 0.55". The line is blossoming a bit down by Philly but I think it's over with in these parts for a while.

Light rain. Dewpoints are atrotious, and the AC in my classroom doesn't work, so that's fun. If I'm reading it right, Scranton PA has picked up 2.3 inches of rain so far today, and seems to be in the bullseye of heaviest rain.

I should be up to a half inch since Tuesday night with the latest light rain, which almost puts me in the jackpot this time. With all of the dreariness and gross humidity the past two days, people will perceive that we've gotten much more rain than we actually have.

Pleasantly surprised this evening with 0.30" after a brief deluge followed by some steadier rain. Several good flashes of lightening and some thunder, enough to send the dog scurrying into one of her hiding spots.

Clown maps for now.

We had enough to wet the parking lot earlier and it dried right up as soon as the sun came back out. It's filling in a little bit this afternoon.

Don, I'm curious where you pull your data? Is it accessible to anyone? If it's intuitive enough, I want to play around with the numbers some more for my area. Thx.

My guess is no, and especially not anywhere north of there. Maybe some sprinkles, light showers to wet the ground, that's probably it, nothing widespread.

Look how much lower Sussex is compared to Mt. Pocono for YTD and 2024, which is probably only about 40-50 miles as the crow flies. Impressive difference.

Can you also do it for some NJ Locations? Andover, Sussex, Morristown, Mount Pocono PA, Scranton PA, also Middletown, NY, and anywhere else? I feel like NNJ isn't going to come in as wet as locations to the west or the east, so I'm curious if this data can be pulled.

It got quite threatening looking up here in the afternoon and evening yesterday. Nothing, not even a drip. Everything was well east.

I'm half that at 1.20 for the month. We only got 0.08" out of everything yesterday and this morning. What I have noticed lately is the stubborn banding and pretty sharp cutoffs. In that wherever the banding starts to set up, that's who's getting it, and it's not wavering much. Things always seem to train northeast over the same spots. I'd love to see a study of summer thunderstorm precipitation patterns in this area because it always seems to be two distinct areas. The most common is over the Delaware Water Gap and places to the north and west, and the other, not as frequent area is to the south and east, starting well south of Philly and training up and eventually off shore towards Long Island. The drought monitor shows this, and I'll be curious to see how it changes next week. Perhaps just a short term blip, or something longer term due to climate and topography. But it's definately a thing.

0.01". Yeah, I don't know about anything else here. The radar over where we would need the development remains largely blank.

We need the southern part to develop right. It did the other night. These set ups are always a bit iffy to me, I always tell people to watch for things popping up, but not to plan their day around it.

Some stuff may be developing, or develop later, but isn't what we are currently seeing already quite a bit north of the models?

1.12" in the tube last night with round one around 6:30 and again around 10:30. Lots of thunder and flashes too. Nice over-performance even though areas around got a lot more. Better yet that it came in two waves and not all at once. I'll take it.