Layman

Are there specific atmospheric mechanics that make or allow this to happen (I'm assuming "yes" because the models are picking up on it actually/potentially happening) that can be discerned at some reasonably defined lead time? Or, is it something that simply just happens? I see terms being used like "holding the energy back" or "not diving in time" etc but am curious if there's something akin to a tangible reason why. Kind of like a block of NE Canada shunting storms eastward. This is an obvious and easy to understand concept for me but some of the other mechanics remain elusive.

Could this be where AI may ultimately shine? I see it as a huge hurdle to attempt to overcome but it'll be interesting to see if improvements can be made.

I remember it. No power, everything quietish outside except for the sound of ice dropping off trees and the consistent shotgun pops of tree tops, large branches and full trees coming down. That was another 5-7 day outage for us on the Seacoast of NH.

We've got woodpeckers galore here so I can definitely see that. Is there anything that can be done do stave off the emerald ash beetle if that is the cause? Thank you for the feedback and insight, I appreciate it!

In weather, when is this NOT a thing? It seems there's a near infinite amount of variables that can play with most any weather pattern aside from perhaps a summer COC teasing season.

@tamarack @dendrite Gentlemen, you two seem to know your trees. I’ve got this on my property - what is it and what’s happening to it? I don’t believe it’s dead as I believe it had leaves that dropped in the Fall, but it appears to have shed its entire outer layer of bark across each tree.

That was a helpful explanation for a casual onlooker like myself. It'll be interesting to see which model ultimately wins out here.

I found it safest to view every reply as an euphemism until proven otherwise. You'll soon see that damn near every post can be misconstrued

Does this imply that it should be, or is getting well sampled at this point and therefore can be more reliably believed to be participating as the models are showing?

“Light Breeze, Some Wind” J/K! It’s actually “Load Blown SouthWest” which I understand to be a New England forum exclusive term that I interpret as a/the storm developing or hitting to our Southwest, rather than hitting New England.

With so much angst, hand wringing and consternation about the weather, I thought I'd try to chime in with what I believe is helpful advice. While some folks like warmth, others snow, many enjoy active patterns, etc it all boils down to perspective. We can all choose to perceive the same information or data in either a positive or negative way. Here's a good example from my household that may help to shine a light on this better: Negative Approach: Wife says: "Please come upstairs and meet me in the bathroom." My response: "Ugh. Alright....I'll be there in a minute." Positive Approach: Wife says: "Please cum upstairs and meat me in the bathroom." My response: "Absolutely!!!!" There are subtle differences, sometimes only discernible to the keen observer, but certainly meaningful nonetheless. I've found it's always best to take the positive approach Good luck out there, I hope this helps.

The Crunge

Goody Two Shoes?

You guys got to know the Leeroy Jenkins meme, no? https://knowyourmeme.com/memes/leeroy-jenkins

F-it, I’m gonna thread it right now. Leeroooooooy Jeeeeeenkinnnnnns!!!!!

It’s a beaut! is that a TRX I spy…?

Our observed and recorded weather data set is so infinitesimally small in the grand scheme that it sometimes seems ridiculous to refer to our current "norms" and "averages". Maybe the past thousand years would be something that's more manageable from a recency-biased perspective of norms and averages. Hard telling. From my perspective, 40-100 years doesn't even scratch the surface but it's what we've got to work with.

This is critical for science to be meaningful and useful. It should be the utmost priority in any realm to ensure the input data is accurate. Tip was referring to multiple studies just yesterday citing how they were "science'd" (I believe that was the term he used) and peer reviewed/confirmed. If your input data is inaccurate, your peer-reviewed output data is also inaccurate. I'm not sure what data specifically was being used there and can't say one way or the other if that data was accurate but the point is much bigger than the accuracy of a handful of studies. The principles of science must be adhered to so it can be relied upon in all realms it's deployed. Whether it's improperly calculated instruments, human error, lax testing/recording, biased influencing, or any other inaccurate input it degrades the usefulness of the output. Perhaps, and realistically considering, science has always been this way and the innate level of ignorance borne from that has instilled too much confidence. With so much data at our fingertips now it's easy for a pro or average Joe to spot inconsistencies/inaccuracies and it certainly muddies the water of reliable consensus.

It's even simpler than that. May I introduce "poisonous fog": https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-14239417/thick-fog-mystery-chemical-smell-reports.html

If I'm interpreting this right, does this mean 6"+ of snow for NEMA and SENH?

It's cranking pretty good here. Up above it's howling. Tops of the pines swinging wildly. One good sized branch down so far. I was expecting it to be less than it is.

Recorded a 32mph gust at 11:15. There may be yard cleanup after all.

Registered a 28.6 gust at 9:45am. Breezy and annoying for trash day. When my poorly sited station registers in the 35mph+ range, we're blowing pretty good and there's gonna be some yard cleanup when it's done.

A wise man once said “when the weather gives you lemons, make smash burgers”. Me and the little lady heeded the call. Beautiful afternoon out there, hope you got to enjoy it.

There's this fellow called the "Grinch" you may or may not be aware of. He routinely visits New England around this time of year spreading angst, dews and temps near 50+ at what many feel is the most inopportune time. Some say "abnormal", others may say "delayed, not denied".