Layman

Well, take you pick - we've got a lot on the menu today: various studies and research papers, clown maps out to the ~300hr range, mid-90's sitcoms, vintage John Holmes films circa 1980, oh, and a touch of current weather discussion mixed in. Clearly a little something for everyone!

https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0263023

It should be an easy and great discussion but there are so many moving parts to it, that it becomes tribal with one side pitted against the other. The crux to me being, is the data accurate? If it is, is it robust enough? If these things can't be agreed upon, how do you have a productive discussion? The politics comes in because "sides" and finances influence these things at all levels of government. To believe otherwise is simply not being realistic. The personal attacks come in because some believe their fellow man is actively causing what they perceive as a threat to their very existence. If one believes humans are causing CC, they often propose and/or support ideas that prevent human activities they believe are contributing. If one believes CC is naturally occurring and doesn't support those ideas, the two parties are diametrically opposed and "fight" to support their position and/or activities. So often these discussions carry the disclaimer of "I'm not denying it exists" or "that's not up for debate", etc yet there's still the declaration that "science" is being employed. Seems to me that science left the chat some time ago. As I mentioned the other day, people have faith in studies, data, etc but are they truly accurate? Are they not influenced by any desired outcome, ideology, finances, etc? Can you think of any examples involving data, studies or scientific ideas that ultimately proved to be inaccurate? (Rhetorical questions) Just because we're at humanity's current state-of-the-art doesn't mean we're infallible. Remember the Non-Fat Yogurt episode from Seinfeld? That's a light-hearted example to make a point that many simply accept what's presented to them as being true. Extrapolate that example out to the foods you buy in the grocery store or consume at a restaurant, the medicine you put in your body, the scientific data that should be unbiased, accurate and produced with integrity. Are the ingredients accurately represented? The studies rigorous enough to prove long-term safety? The method(s) of testing robust and reliable? We hope. If these things are not accurate, what harms are being done acting on that inaccurate data? We assume that the data inputs the weather models ingest is accurate and reliable with no biases. Pulled in essentially real-time and processed to output a possible solution mere hours into the future. How does that work out? How accurate are those outputs 6-12 hours into the future? Point being that even with presumed accurate data from an immensely dynamic environment, the outcome can and does routinely deviate from what's expected. Add in adjusted, manipulated or flat out inaccurate data and those deviations get further exaggerated. Anyway, I feel hungry for some non-fat yogurt...

Had the thinnest of coatings around 7am this morning but nothing on the ground here now. Flakes in the air most of the morning as we watch the radar/precip dancing along the state line below me.

You must be in some pretty rarified air with this mishap. There's the group that walked on the moon, then you and like 1 or 2 other guys who've probably done this

What if it's going to make it's own cold though?

Five days ago you seemed to nail this. Quite the evolution over that stretch of time but as of now, it seems like we weren't able to thread the needle.

A mere 3 hours ago GYX updated their snowfall map. Is the consensus now "ain't happening James"?

Amazing day out there today. My station is biased high when in directly sunlight, but it read a high of 67.3. Felt real close to it too. Shorts, t-shirt, grilling, getting the D (vitamin) from head to toe today. I'll take days like this every February, please. Going to take some time tomorrow to get more firewood staged to burn through the upcoming snowy/winter period. What an awesome area we live in to see such wild swings!

Shortly after I posted that the sun did make an appearance. Only able to muster a high of 45.5. Decent for February but we were hoping for 50+. Even let the wood stove die down in anticipation. We'll try again tomorrow and then shift gears to snow removal early next week!

Has anyone seen the sun yet today? I thought we were heading for high 40's at some point. The sun shone for a few minutes this morning before the front came through, clouded everything up and here we sit - overcast and 36.

For those who are scared by things in this realm, there are apparently ways to deal with that fear and anxiety: https://www.cpr.org/2024/01/24/butterfly-affect-climate-change-anxiety/

I got a mailer from Saddleback mountain today with some deals on ski/stay packages that looked attractive. I've never been there before. Can anyone speak to it's size? How it compares to other New England mountains? Quality of the terrain? Accommodations if you've stayed before? On mountain amenities? As of now it looks like they're basically completely open and I imagine they're far enough north to keep it that way for awhile. Any info and/or opinions are appreciated.

I have found in life that when there are things we can't control, like the weather (or can we....?), there is tremendous benefit in finding positives in whatever the "thing" is. In the case of winter weather, there's the fun associated with tracking, the excitement trying to determine what, if any amount of snow one may get, seeing and hearing about other storms (i.e.: Cape Breton right now), etc. It's incredibly easy to fall back on the "everything is terrible" bandwagon and Lord knows, misery absolutely loves company! When there's nothing going on and it's Seattle weather for days, brutally cold and dry, or some other form of typically undesirable weather for winter months, force yourself to go out into it - find something positive about it. The bite of dry winter wind on your face. The difficulty breathing wind swept single digit temps. Ankle deep mud on a walk in the woods. Simply experience it. Create a memory. Find the beauty in your surroundings and the magic associated with getting to live through this time and space. Totally not trying to sound all new-age and cosmically connected at all even though I feel it reads that way Point is, life is truly wondrous when you take a moment to let go of the negative drag society deftly lays upon our shoulders and experience a moment in time.

There was clearly a mosquito hatch in my area. Even with temps in the mid 20’s overnight, I’ve seen four separate mosquitoes the past 24 hours. Unusual for early February.

Does that kind of mileage beat you up at all is it totally gear dependent? A ride like that sounds awesome to me and the pics you guys post look great. It's something I'd really like to try with the family sometime, although I imagine a rental/guide service won't be doing tons of miles over a few short hours.

Is there a sub-forum here where these topics are discussed? I only see the tangential posts in these monthly threads and haven't sought out any wider discussions. I can imagine they devolve into the typical sh!tshow if they exist. I'd argue that ones faith in "how accredited science operates" is where the entirety of the thing has the potential to break down. Either sound science is being performed or it's not. Biased politics and/or the finances associated therein mix with science like oil and water. Science should be wholly objective. Can it be, or is it when the biases of politics and/or finances are interjected? It's supposed to be, but my USB ports have witnessed enough oddities in these realms (in a professional capacity) to throw up 404 errors regularly and prove without a doubt that "accredited science" is simply not in many really important instances. A single bias, error or purposeful change done decades ago that has perpetuated through to today can change the entire basis of one's belief. Now, clumsily attempting to tie that to February 2024 weather and stay on topic... It's often brought up in these threads how the 1980's had some rough winters. I remember it being COLD. I remember there being little snow. Some of us are old enough to remember how this tied nicely into the belief at the time that we were entering an ice age. Seems that data and belief was inaccurate. The younger folks here that didn't live through, or have no recollection of the winters of the 80's have a different perspective. Winters have presented as milder and that fits nicely with current belief that things are warming. Could this data and belief also be inaccurate? What does that mean for snow in February 2024? Hard to say, but many are still waiting with bated breath to see if a rodent see's his shadow to predict what's going to happen My un-scientific low-bar prediction: We will see at least one more plowable event of 4" or greater in my area before the season is over.

I know anything resembling a dissenting view is frowned upon and the topic is then deemed to be clogging up the thread, but when I read all these posts I can't help but ask is the data accurate? Why is one person's data more accurate than another? Most forums tend to become echo chambers for the topics they're focused on. Discussions turn to debates that turn to fights with each group "taking sides" standing firm with an unwillingness to objectively look outside of their firmly held views. Is the data accurate? Why has NOAA adjusted the temperature data? Was the data they're adjusting more accurate? How much impact do heat islands have? How much impact does time of observation have? How reliable is the global temperature data set? Assuming everything we know is unquestionably, 100% accurate - does it even matter? Does 200 years of presumably accurate temperature data provide any meaningful understanding of the condition of a planet that's understood or believed to be many millions or billions of years old? Cloud seeding? SO2 balloons? These strike me as being akin to "blessing" someone who sneezed to prevent the demons from entering the body. Sure, it has morphed into courteous pleasantry for some reason, but really? Demons entering the body? Humans have believed and orchestrated some really dumb things over thousands of years that seemed at one point in time to be "state of the art". How do we know this is any different?

I had read something about this place in the past year or so - could this be it? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moscow_Air_Force_Station

Did you use a guide service? I've been wanting to do this with my family and was curious if it's a good time.

I like all the data, historical analogs and sciencey stuff that back up the forecasts and ideas around interpreting what may happen. I personally feel however, that with all the inputs that are processed to create a model output, we need magnitudes more to dramatically improve accuracy especially as you look further out into the future. Kind of an obvious statement but it's interesting to consider how much better forecasting can actually get. Are we at the upper limit already? I say "no", but who knows. It's like considering where we are with human transportation - are we at the upper limit? Comparing to model forecasting, are we at the horse and buggy stage? Reusable rockets? Inquiring minds want to know.

As a casual and self-proclaimed thoughtful observer who contributes little to nothing to this forum, I follow the momentum and tenor that you experienced folks provide in your comments to gauge what, if anything may happen weather-wise. I've seen a lot of posts with pretty colors and maps showing beautiful patterns that are just over the horizon for many weeks but alas, here we are on February 1st with the season that's been what it is to date - something that seems may approach normal by seasons end. Perhaps this time, the pattern will be favorable for snow and the necessary moisture and storm tracks will follow to produce something meaningful in our area. If it doesn't, well, that seems to be the greater wholesale pattern we've been in for a few years now so no surprise. It's like we've flipped a coin 15 times and it's been tails every time. We know it's just as likely to be heads on every flip but after a while you kind of fall back on "I don't feel like it's going to". It definitely seems like there are firmly two majority camps in this realm however, especially this time of year: those who want snowy winters and those who don't. While each party may think they're being objective, scientific, rational, logical, etc with their posts, to the casual observer it's clear there's a bias. Certainly not a problem, but when it clouds good judgement with every decision/forecast it becomes painfully obvious and diminishes the weight of the posters perspective in my eyes at least. The horror, I know

This sick irony is that Jack was completely snowed in after "days and days" of unrelenting snow. Just don't go fiddling with the boiler...