Layman

Interesting. Logically it makes sense that a "cone of certainty" or confidence narrows as you approach the start of a weather event but it's interesting to consider what contributes to that confidence at longer lead times. I recall a time or two last winter when you had a high level of confidence in something materializing at long lead times - 10-15 or so days out. I don't remember the finer details of the storm, but do remember one of them blossomed into a region-wide event. With respect to model improvements in recent years, is there a way to quantify that? For example, is it in terms of "Model X is correct XX% of the time" or is it more nuanced than that? I ask because it seems like there can be drastic fluctuations from run to run. One run showing an event in SNE only to have it move 100's of miles north in the next run, etc. Although, maybe pinpointing specific areas (IMBYism) is more of an individual human response rather than a testament to the reliability of a model output...? I.e.: it's going to rain in a general area and it could be SNE, CNE or some combination thereof.

For the meteorologists and advanced hobbyists who've been doing this for some time, when deciphering model output, would you say you have more confidence in what the models are spitting out or is it more so your interpretation based on your experience of what the models are outputting? From a 3rd party layman's perspective, it appears that determinations are made based on what a model suggests, or rather it's evolution in getting to whatever the model is currently suggesting, however that can change rather dramatically by the time the next output is delivered. Seems like highly complicated business and not really for those who like/need hard and fast, black and white answers!

3.66" total

Looks clean and consistent on this cam at the North beach wall. Hard for me to tell how big they are: https://www.cinnamonrainbows.com/surf-cam-report

Thank you for the detailed reply. It'll be interesting to see how the winds from this one ultimately play out compared to forecasts.

Non-meteorologist here (1st post as well...): is there a formula or other standard to define or predict the reduction in wind speed upon encountering land? For example, if there are sustained 60mph winds at the coastline, are there high-confidence ways to predict/forecast winds 1 mile, 2 miles, 5 and 10 miles inland? Where I'm physically situated, and from comments I've seen over the years from others, it seems that forecast gusts rarely reach the speeds predicted in the weather apps.