Layman

My brother in Wolfeboro just sent me this screenshot from 3:14pm. I'm thinking everything will be more north of there. He said he's been checking various reports all day and they're changing by the hour:

Are you thinking winds are likely to be more apt to verify with this one? Not looking forward to that. Already got the text from Eversource saying prepare for outages...

Not trying to be flippant, but didn't we deal with exactly this in the Dec 17-18, 2023 storm a few weeks back? Or are you talking more IMBY?

Being about 60' AMSL means we don't have a whole lot of elevation over here but we can still make do when the driveway gets covered. The kids got a few "runs" in today before they're back to the wheeled bikes in the warm rain on Wednesday.

I imagine Tip will be along shortly to explain how the entropic tendency of the collective psyche on the board has manifested itself into the manifold of the genera and we will likely see a wholesale modal change in that behavior forthwith, likely prior to "clown range" depictions.

I hope so, but I'm seeing a forecast of low 50's and over 2" of rain for my area. Not sure my 9 incher can survive that kind of abuse.

I got the 11" for Kittery from this post, but feel free to twist the knife Edit: Ouch...Ok, I'm seeing it now - a 5" difference within Kittery alone?!

Definitely, I would too. Especially since it was picked up on some models prior. It's interesting how sometimes the models can seem to be completely out to lunch, but then they go and do something like this ("...and totally redeem themselves!")

It's interesting to me to see how these things just continually evolve up to and during the storm. Seeing Seabrook with 13" right on the water, which is about 14 miles as the crow flies from me, and Kittery at 11" which is 9 miles east of me was curious as I was under the impression that the immediate coast was going to get the least amounts. This storm worked out great though. Had a chance to expose a couple issues with the tractors that I can get buttoned up before we REALLY cash in on a future non-rain next one!

We sat in the tiniest spitting flakes for a solid 7 hours (7:30am - 2:30pm) before it picked up again and gave us that additional 3ish inches. If that was accumulating during that time we would've had a really solid event. No complaints, just observations My brother up in Wolfeboro (800' ASL) measured 12.5" at about 6pm last night. The spotter reports for my area posted in the other thread looked reasonable.

12.6 for the low this morning. Didn’t keep an eye on that and wasn’t expecting it. Definitely chilly to wake up to. Please look for my essay later today entitled: ”Why I’m Happy I Only Got 9” of Snow Before The Coming 2” of Rain”

Interesting to see Seabrook to the south at 13” and Kittery northeast at 11”. Here’s where our super-official, not just jabbed in the ground (or tilted to the left a bit) measurement ended up. Left is 7:30am 1/7, Right is 7:30am 1/8.

Snowing the best it has all day over the past two hours. Sat at 6” from 7am til 2pm, up to 8” now. it was a bear to clear. Really quite wet and dense. Snowball making snow.

I’ve found these are great for cleanup and save your back.

Does SENH have a chance to pick up a few more inches? It’s been spitting here all morning but radar looks like it’s slowly filling back in. Not materializing out the window yet.

Feeling both dry and slotty here

6” OTG at 7:15am. 21.9F Very light snow right now.

I know it's taken in jest, but the geese are quite active around here today. Saw and heard multiple groups packing up and getting out of town. As one astute poster mentioned the other day, they seem to be more reactive than predictive. Lots of evidence of that today.

Spitting snow while getting the plow and blower machines warmed up and checked over. Should be GTG for whatever ends up happening here!

I’m definitely jaded from always coming in under the forecasts for the past few years and feel the same way - maybe 2/3rds for my area. Who knows, maybe this one actually works out this time? if we’re raining on Wednesday then I’m good with getting less than the apparent 12” or so NWS is thinking. If Wednesday has a chance to not be inches of warm rain, let’s get started on stacking piles.

I lived too many years just like this but am much happier now that I don't. Embrace enjoying each moment, whatever they may bring, and make the most of it.

If this influence does come back into play today, is there an estimate as to what kind of enhancement it could have? 10%? Or is it far more complicated and it will simply be apparent on the modeling that something is changing? Curious if there's a known or estimated impact of this happening in these kind of situations.

My interpretation of what they're saying is that they absolutely can however, it then turns into "not a snowstorm". It cuts west and brings rain or goes OTS and gone. Basically the spot where a storm needs to be to be a good snowstorm for the area is far smaller than what's necessary for something to cut west and rain or simply go out to sea and not be anything for us. Easier to forecast/predict something with much wider options to happen than that thin sliver for a great snowstorm. The cutter can go up anywhere west of us right up to VT-ish area (just my guess) and bring rain or poor conditions. Just my take on what they're saying, could definitely still be wrong.

What's the likelihood my area actually sees 12-18"? While prior results don't equal future performance, my guess is likely 6-10" based on my recency-biased, winter-storm PTSD cynical perspective.