Layman

There was a conversation on here the other day about this which I found interesting. Seemed like some thought modeling was doing pretty well, especially compared to 10-15 years ago and others (maybe you?) expressed sentiment as you did above. I'm curious what plays into a model being more-right or more-wrong. Not sure there's an easy answer to that but it's an interesting discussion.

Dec 3: Dropped to a low of 35.2 with 0.85" of rain Dec 4: Low of 32.7 and 0.18" of rain as of 8:15am My brother in Wolfeboro at 800' ASL has about 2" of wet compacted snow. Sister in Farmington NH also has about 2" but I'm not sure of her exact elevation compared to the other Farmington posters here. She's not on the ridge and maybe at 400' ASL.

This may need a qualifier. Optimistic for warmth and rain or cold and snow?

36.7 and 0.21" of rain so far. Looks like there may be snow around Northwood/Nottingham. How low will we go?

To be fair, it seems like you could log on any 5 of 7 days during any given week and find something similar.

While tone is a difficult thing to discern online, I don't necessarily think the question about where the confidence comes from is unjustified. However, my understanding is the man dedicates a significant amount of time to defining exactly that in his seasonal write-ups so the answer likely lies within that. I've found them to be too densely packed and filled with terms I don't yet understand thoroughly so it's a slog trying to read them but I do appreciate the brief clarifications that show up in the threads that are ultimately bolstered by that document. To that end, I agree with much of what you said with respect to the fact that weather constantly changes, it's going to do what it's going to do and the experts will do their best to attempt to predict/forecast what's going to happen. My simplistic perspective of seasonal forecasting is that it's incredibly easy to fail at and it's a step or two above making guesses as to what's going to happen. Alternatively, there's clearly a tremendous amount of data and research that goes into it so who am I to say it doesn't have merit simply because I don't understand it? So something is behind the confidence that this year won't be like last year, and he's likely already explained it and I didn't understand it . I too am curious where the confidence comes from and may have posed the question differently (assuming I knew what I was talking about): "What gives you confidence that things won't continually get pushed back like last year? The -PDO is not very encouraging."

Wow, if that comes to be my back yard will have 3-6" while my front yard will be ready for another mow! BTW, I saw a yellow Harley at a sushi place on the Seacoast about an hour ago. I wonder....

I try to keep up with the technical jargon here but some terms are simply above my pay grade. This one seems to be deep into the Journeyman or early Master phase of the craft.

Interesting to know that Plymouth Rock is less than Geico. We use Geico for personal policies and Liberty Mutual for commercial. Both increased significantly this year. Personal was the addition of a new driver and kind of made sense. Commercial policy sent a "warning" notice saying "FYI, your policy is going to increase by more than 25% at renewal". It did too - by about 45%. From what I've seen after investigating why my policies were going up so much, there are apparently three major reasons why insurance companies are hiking rates: 1) Inflation - costs of repairs are up significantly, 2) EV's - more on the road getting damaged or needing battery replacements which are extremely expensive, 3) Large pool of uninsured drivers claimed to be due to significant immigration. Whether any of that is true or not, I'm not 100% sure, but on the surface it makes sense.

I'm new to all of this and enjoy trying to parse information provided by the experienced meteorologists and hobbyists here. The abilities and reliability of the models is something that is very interesting to me. Trying to discern the line between models as a tool and the interpretation from the experts who use them. I tend to view things very black and white and expect hard and fast results from specific inputs but weather and forecasting certainly don't seem to work that way! I find it interesting that the experienced folks here can see biases and trends within the models that are counter to what the model is outputting. Why would this be? I'm assuming that those who provide input into the models development would see this too and attempt to correct it...? I don't know what that process is like and imagine it's arduous and involved. However, based on the responses above, it seems like something has changed in the models specifically. If it/they were previously more reliable with the data point inputs they were receiving, it shouldn't matter if temps are increasing, decreasing or other normal weather related impacts are changing if it was processing them correctly. It seems that these are very valuable tools but I'm curious about the reliability. @WinterWolf mentioned the "scores" = is this a self-assessing/ranking score for each model? Is there data showing how reliable a models forecasts are at X number of hours out from an event? Or not even an event per se, but any given moment in time? I'd love to know if there's a "cone of confidence" showing how far out from point zero in time that a models predictions go from 0% accurate to 99%/100% accurate.

My installation is up the side of the house so we followed the 10-3-2 rule at the roof. Easily have 6-9' above the eave and all clearances covered. For some reason, temps at 40ish and above make it really hard to start the stove. I have an annual tradition of smoking the place out the first lighting of every season

Here's some of my experience that may be helpful to you. We installed a wood stove (not a pellet stove, there are differences in case you didn't know) about 15 years ago. No prior fireplace or chimney - built a hearth, put a Selkirk Metalbestos thimble through the wall and a 28' Metalbestos stack. Double walled as required, but not insulated in it's own chimney space. An existing fireplace with chimney as you mentioned would likely be a good place to start. In the early season or warm-ish weather (40 and above) I have trouble getting stove started and pulling a good draft. Other people I know don't have this issue. Those with enclosed/insulated chimney don't seem to have this issue. Stove is on an outside wall at the center of the house. We have a center stairwell and landing that's opened to both sides of the house. 3,000sqft total, stove is rated for 2,400sqft. There's an open room at the top of the stairs with no wall so heat makes it up there. We also have the 12" wall space you mentioned. It doesn't really seem to affect heat traveling however, any enclosed room, or room with a door away from the stove can struggle to heat up if you're not cranking the stove. Our downstairs is wide open on the entire side the stove is on. That area will heat nicely into the low 80's without issue. Far reaches of the first floor will be 20 degrees cooler on cold nights. Upstairs is similar in bedrooms We don't use the stove as sole heat source but it's the dominant source for sure. Nothing beats the heat from a roaring stove. You can burn oil all day long trying to hold something near 70 where the stove will sweat you out of the room if you let it. Now maintaining the stove/chimney and preparing for winter is another story. It's a LOT of work. You have to know and accept that going into it. We burn both seasoned firewood and fire "bricks" made from sawdust. Depending on the year we'll burn about 2 cord of wood and a pallet of bricks - sometimes more, sometimes less. You're CONSTANTLY moving this stuff around and it makes a mess. If you're planning ahead, you need to buy green wood 12+ months prior to the next season or pay up for "seasoned". You can get burned (pun?) buying seasoned because some people don't let it dry long enough before selling it. Burning wet wood is no good. Leads to creosote buildup and burns poorly. If you're buying 12 months ahead, you need to store it somewhere to dry. Top covered, allowing air to flow through (although top covering by September 1st is the rule I typically follow). We have a "next year" seasoning spot on the property that's bit of a hike from the house. We have a "this year" stack about 50 feet from the house. We've got 2 round wood racks on our covered porch. We've got a couple pallets of bricks in the basement. We've got a rack big enough to hold a day/nights worth of burning near the hearth. All of this stuff gets touched and moved countless times over the entire year and especially during the burning season. We always ask ourselves "is this worth it?" In the middle of winter, the answer is absolutely "Yes!" You can't beat it. Now, if there's a way to make the entirety of the process easier and move efficient I would do it in a heartbeat. We're still trying to figure that out... Hopefully this is helpful. There's a lot to consider when going down the path of heating with wood - pellet stoves are different and have their own pros and cons, but are worthy of considering. I'm sure others will have some decent input as well. I'm always interested in hearing tips and tricks people have for managing their process.

Corrected original post - thank you

I interpret these as: Init: = Initialized (?). When the data was run to create the image 12Z = in Zulu/GMT time (7am EST) 29NOV2023 = date data was processed/run to create image 126hr = number of hours out into the future from the initialized date/time Valid = when the image is "valid" for Mon = Monday 18Z = in Zulu/GMT time (1pm EST) 04DEC2023 = date for when the image/data is forecasting/predicting for So yes, the valid time is posted on the image and in this case, 7am EST Monday December 4, 2023. If I've gotten any of these wrong, someone can please correct me.

I quickly scrolled to the bottom of this page, saw your pic and immediately thought "That's the Sasquatch pose". We have another sighting!

"Deniers" - is this a scientific term the elite intelligentia use to describe the lowly and uneducated who reside below them in the social strata?

Definitely a good start to the season. You may enjoy this ski season thread with lots of good pics from those who've been on the mountains already: Please say "Hi" to mom and dad for us. (joking!)

The difference between Exeter and Epping average snowfall looks like it may highlight what you guys have mentioned regarding the marine influence. Not sure how accurate this data is, but it's claiming the averages are: Exeter. 55.71" and Epping 61.85". http://www.usa.com/rank/new-hampshire-state--average-snow--city-rank.htm About a 10 mile NW stretch for a 6" increase on average. A warm spring/summer/fall evening on one of the decks at Seadog in Exeter can be a good time for dinner if you haven't been there. Nice little spot overlooking the Squamscott.

I like these kinds of articles and enjoyed reading this - thanks for sharing. Personally, I feel like the extent gone to trying to figure out what causes the "feelings" associated with weather is akin to manipulating financial data to get a desired result. It didn't necessarily happen in this case so that's not a direct apples to apples comparison, but that's how I was viewing it. Largely due to my belief that the reason extreme weather has an emotional impact is from the anticipation/preparation, adrenaline, unknown outcomes, etc. Kind of like an amusement park ride. I'm not sure this holds for all kinds of extreme weather. I know for me, if there's something coming with flooding rains and damaging winds the excitement is due more to fear and worry rather than looking forward to seeing my or my neighbors house/properties get wrecked in a storm. More-so in winter than in the summer, when the potential for a big storm is on the horizon, I absolutely love the anticipation, preparation, hunkering down, the milk/bread acquisition quest (I kid!), and awaiting first flakes. For some reason, it feels easier to prepare for a big winter storm than a ravaging high wind/rain summer storm. Although, some of those pics from out west last year were downright frightening! I couldn't imagine being essentially trapped under dozens of feet of snow covering your entire home. Crazy.

Is that generally good or bad? In 2015 we got dumped on over and over again like most everyone and piled up the snow. Past 2-3 winters we've been on the rain/snow line consistently. So much so that it will be raining at the house and a mile and half west toward town it's snowing and sticking. One particular storm last year had the house at 0" accumulation but there was 4-6" 3 miles away. I figured warm waters in the bay may have contributed to that but that's just a guess. Edit: @40/70 Benchmark gave a clear answer on that - thanks

Are you about 20 miles from the coast as the crow flies? I'm about 8-10 miles from the coast depending on which direction you're facing and maybe 25 miles north of your latitude. I'm assuming being closer to the coast has more of an affect than latitude in this area...?

Is there a reasonably defined or understood area that delineates the Southern New England Coastal Plain? Is it basically Boston south?

Aside from the cold pushing southward, are there any other factors that you'd like to see that would get snow falling across southern areas of New England? Or, is this likely CNE, NNE regardless? Alternatively, am I approaching this wrong and it's specifically the cold that's needed so what we'd want to see are factors that assist the cold to drop further southward...?

Went from 33.8 at 6:30pm last night to 51.8 at 5:30am this morning. The warmth hit at 7pm and by 8pm we were at 43. 0.85" of rain overnight and a gust around 30mph at 3am pushed some patio furniture around. Sitting at 42.3 with blue skies and a light breeze.

Interesting info that I'm sure most taxpayers aren't aware of. We expect things to continue to work and be there 24/7/365 but a bloated and inefficient government isn't typically known for handling these things well. Hopefully a meaningful and functional budget for you folks isn't too far down the road.