Layman

Killington cams are looking a lot like March/April today. It'll be nice to see some more snow making and natural snow showing up during the cold shots.

Thanks - I appreciate the details from you and anyone who's willing to answer my often remedial questions. I deal with primarily black and white data where if X happens, Y is the outcome. There's also lots of meaningful influence involved and when a trend happens, it's likely to continue until another known and obvious influence affects that trend and creates another highly likely outcome. Weather and forecasting seem to deal with similar principles but dramatically more "gray" data and an infinite number of outside influences always working to impact an outcome. When people here say "it's going to be AN mid month on" or "rains to Maine", etc I'm curious where the conviction comes from to make those statements. I realize that this being the internet, there's a lot of noise as you allude to, but aside from straight up trolling I imagine there are data points people see that reinforce an outcome they have a high level of confidence in. Whether that's real and based on sound data, being puked out of a Maddoff inspired black box or completely made up out of the blue is interesting to me and where a lot of my questions come from. At some point a forecaster has to commit to an outcome and share it with their audience (assuming that's what's called for in their realm of the profession) and that moment in time where the decision is made, with the data and experience available is where my highest interest is. Simply because I find it "neat" and there's accountability, or should be, after that point to reflect on the decision, the reason for it and the outcome.

As a general reader, I interpret the above to say there's a (very tiny) chance that a winter event could materialize over the coming 10-14ish day range if everything comes together as you were alluding to. Assuming the underlying conditions that would prompt a winter-type event are reinforced in the coming days, is there a point in time, or are there specific conditions that lift confidence to a greater-than-50% chance? Or is that simply not how it works in this realm? Alternatively, is it simply that no matter how far or close in time we are to a potential weather event, there's the chance that the rug can always be pulled out from underneath? Since we're entering winter, and we're looking toward winter/snow events, this particular line of question is relating to that however, I'm generally curious if these kinds of things hold true to all weather events or if the dynamics change based on seasons.

Just took a peek at the North Ridge cam at 1pm on Saturday and it was MOBBED. Every seat on the lift was at max capacity for the entire duration the cam was up. I let it run until it clocked out on it's own. Looked like good conditions and temp at 41. Really nice day to be out there.

41.7 for a low this morning at sea level about 200 miles southeast of you. A relative of mine in Wolfeboro at 800' ASL is routinely 10ish degrees cooler than we are and gets significantly more snow. We've been at the same temps or colder than him so far this fall which has stood out. Don't think it necessarily means anything but it's a noticeable difference from the past few years.

Is there anything specific to a warm airmass that inspires the confidence in it happening or could/would the confidence be the same with a cold/frigid airmass assuming all the model signs were equal? Kudos to all of you who do this for a living and dynamically reevaluate this data every few hours. It must be a career you're passionate about because I imagine it could get exhausting!

The two date ranges I've seen mentioned are "mid-month November" and @ORH_wxman referenced the first 10 days of December.

Suggested updates/edits made to post.

Sorry if this has been discussed ad nauseam here....But, with all the talk of a pending warmup, why is there typically so much confidence put into it playing out? Are there elements to a warm air mass that allow it to dominate over other scenarios playing out? Is it due to being something that can be simply and easily verified (temp readings) and easy to track west to east? Also, another remedial question that's related: is there a standard time period for air masses and/or weather systems to travel across the globe? For example, if there are specific temps in Japan today, does that have any bearing on what our weather may/could be in X number of days? I know it's not this simple but am curious if this kind of thing plays into an overall look and evaluation of North American weather forecasts.

Is there a thread or sticky anywhere with links to all the local ski area cams? If not, would it be helpful to have one? Possibly broken down by state? Just in case there isn't already a thread, and it's something people would find helpful, here's a few to start with if it's helpful. Additional known links can be added to a sticky if/as needed: VT Killington: https://www.killington.com/the-mountain/webcams/mountain Okemo: https://www.okemo.com/the-mountain/mountain-conditions/mountain-cams.aspx Stowe: https://www.stowe.com/the-mountain/mountain-conditions/mountain-cams.aspx or https://player.timecam.tv/express/index.html?C=D786BEJG4F5A Stratton: https://www.onthesnow.com/vermont/stratton-mountain/webcams Sugarbush: https://www.sugarbush.com/mountain/webcams Jay Peak: https://jaypeakresort.com/resort/photo-day Mad River Glen: https://www.madriverglen.com/live-web-cam/ Bolton Valley: https://www.boltonvalley.com/the-resort/web-cams/ NH Loon: https://www.loonmtn.com/mountain-report#webcam Waterville: https://www.waterville.com/cams Gunstock: https://www.gunstock.com/discover/webcams/ Bretton Woods: https://www.brettonwoods.com/Activities/photos_and_cams/live_cams Attitash: https://www.attitash.com/the-mountain/mountain-conditions/mountain-cams.aspx Sunapee: https://www.mountsunapee.com/the-mountain/mountain-conditions/mountain-cams.aspx Cannon: https://www.cannonmt.com/mountain/webcam-daily-photo Wildcat: https://www.skiwildcat.com/the-mountain/mountain-conditions/mountain-cams.aspx Cranmore: https://cranmore.com/cams ME Sunday River: https://maine-webcams.com/sunday-river-webcam or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J98tW5YX4Z8 Sugarloaf: https://www.sugarloaf.com/mountain-report Saddleback: https://www.saddlebackmaine.com/mountain-report/webcams/ MA Wachusett: https://www.wachusett.com/the-mountain/media-center/webcams/ CT NY Gore Mountain: https://goremountain.com/the-mountain/summit-webcam/ Catamount: https://catamountski.com/winter/mountain-conditions (scroll to bottom of page)

Thank you for the detailed replies, I appreciate it. I have the thinnest of grasps on interpreting weather model data but find the evolutionary process across our hemisphere and the globe fascinating. So many moving parts coalescing to a space and moment in time that's important to us, our region and our backyards - sometimes mundane, sometimes intense and dangerous but always interesting.

I'm curious about something related to this overview: In the past I've seen analysis of model runs where the confidence seems to be higher for a specific outcome that's 10-15 days out in time. Are there factors that are recognized to reinforce the idea that "yes, this outcome seems likely to happen in 10 days time"? What are some examples from prior storms/years? Piggy-backing on that, my understanding is that (obviously) most 10-15 day outlooks have a low confidence associated with them. From 0-100%, is there a typical level of confidence one maintains for a 10-15 days outlook? What percentage would indicate a high confidence in an outcome that presents itself in this time range?

Seacoast as well. Red squirrels have been harvesting them from up on high, dropping them to the ground then scrambling off to who-knows-where with them.

I'm starting to get concerned that I may not need to mow once more this month...

If you haven't tried one of the Fiskars axes, I certainly recommend giving one a go. In fact, I bought 2 for family members years ago after I got mine because I was so impressed. I found when splitting by hand the maul and/or wedge still has place when you're up against a big twisted round. Anything else that's accepting of being split cleanly dices up so quickly like in @kdxken's video. It's still a good workout but what a joy it was blasting through rounds rather than attacking them from all angles. This is the first year in the past 12-15 I haven't split anything, whether by hand or splitter. Bought 3 cord of green early last year and will be burning that this season. Nothing takes the cool edge off like a good hardwood fire! Up to 48.0 in direct sunlight here at noon.

Firewood - definitely warms you more than just once! Those Fiskars splitting axes are great. Made such a big difference over my splitting mauls when I made the switch. I've since migrated to hydraulic power but it's still gets use for the fire pit and for slimming down some of the bigger splits.

Hit 30.0 for a low this morning. First fire of the season in the wood stove.

Love to see it. Always been an exciting time of year!

The climate change topic is a hot one (pun intended...) and gets peoples hackles up for sure. Why is it often black and white? Your example is a great one - your livelihood is is based largely around activities that some perceive as an existential threat. How you make a living is "killing the planet" leading humans to an "extinction level event". You're the enemy. Along with big oil and the rest of the bogeyman stood up for everyone to beat on. It's difficult to have rational, logical, honest, reasonable and empathetic conversations with ground rules that have this tenor. Is it "irrefutable" that temps are warming up over time? On what time scale? Does it matter? I personally believe the data set is laughable. When we speak of record highs, lows, precipitation, etc it's sounds ominous or fantastical to say "in recorded history", etc. How many years is that? 200? 250? Of what could be deemed reasonably reliable. How about data integrity? How accurate were Josiah's and Imogene's temp and precip recordings on November 3rd, 1885? Regardless, it's the best we've got and it's in the record. How about temps at Logan over the past 10 years? Are those accurate? How many of the recording stations have been moved from original sites in the past 100 years? All of them? How many years of reliable data is needed to get an accurate read on what happens with the planet? 100? 10,000? 50,000? 100,000? 500,000? 100 million? There are a lot of variables out there and I'm extremely hesitant to believe that those that have arisen in the past 20-250 years are indicative of the last million+ years. How accurate is ice core data? Are the derivative indicators reliable to determine actual temperatures? Do they accurately depict the atmosphere at specific moments in time? Does humanity actually have any impact on global temperatures? The world has been around a loooooong time and has gone through a lot over the past many millions of years. Our existence here is less than a cosmic blink of an eye. The data we're attempting to interpret to determine what's going on in this moment of existence is so infinitesimally small it's like examining the last second of time you just lived to determine what's going to happen with the rest of your life. It seems to be accepted that today represents the very height of technological advancement for the current human civilization. How many other civilizations have come before us and were at this stage or beyond? Each year we learn about civilizations dating back further and further in time yet, they're still only 10's of thousands of years old. All obviously rhetorical questions and personal opinions, certainly not directed at you or anyone else, but encompassing areas I find meaningful when discussing important topics. While not misanthropic, I'm highly cynical and believe hubris, greed and power/control drive a large portion of humanity rather than a quest for true understanding of our environment/existence. As science has become ever more corrupted it makes it exceedingly difficult to know if the data you're working with is accurate or not. Interesting time to be alive but I'm sure they all are and have been.

FWIW, a line of geese, looked like hundreds, longer than I've seen in years just flew over the house heading W/SW. Maybe they won't be camping at the Portsmouth Traffic Circle this winter.

How many other forums across the entirety of the internet are there where a statement like this arises and is likely received by nods of understanding rather than question marks? I enjoy hearing the stories of storms gone by. They tend to get better with time and the memories are often better than the actual experience itself.

Feels like we went to bed in August and woke up in November

Not complaining at all however...if I had any influence on when we get this kind of weather I'd prefer it arrive on March or April 27th rather than October 27th. Those early warm days on the water in anticipation of the summer ahead are almost as good as the cool Fall days with graying skies and the hint of wood smoke in the air.

Terrible. Sorry you and your community are going through this. Absolutely senseless.

Seems especially so when discussing climate change.