Retrobuc

Better yet, what was your reasoning in only going with 13 named storms in the face of overwhelming model and climate parameter support for a hyperactive season? I mean, you're sharing your numbers while knowing full well the majority of the best TC climatologists on the planet are scrambling for answers. 13 named storms is barely average. I went with those numbers based on another post that showed deviation from the previous high forecast calls. I took that as a baseline and then discounted from there simply using a calculation, not one bit of empirical weather data.

I'm a lurker, but I do financial modeling/forecasting for a living. Since every model called for a hyperactive season, how much do you feel groupthink plays into this? Meterology has become a business and it may be safer to stay with the pack than it is to venture out on your own. Its easier to be wrong with the group than to be wrong as an outlier. Interested to know what people here think. For the record, I said this season would be 13/8/2 in the contest. I feel pretty good about those numbers.

To me the CSU forecast was always too bullish and it seems to have become a game of groupthink after that. You should always be cautious when forecasts for anything are 4-6x higher than the highest point.

What is the timing on this?

I can get behind this.

I read earlier in the week about a large saharan dust layer, which usually makes development difficult. Why is that not the case here?

Im near Daytona Beach and other than rough surf, there have been a few showers and even periods of sun.

13/8/2

I lived in NJ for 50 years until moving to FL a few years ago. These types of events rarely work out for most of NJ and the rain/snow line is usually well north of where its predicted. And resting hopes on the CCB snow being where its forecast is a fools errand. Enjoy whatever snow falls!

Thanks, I think she is going to leave tomorrow morning for our side of the state (Volusia)

Zone B, right on the border of A. She is just of the 275 causeway

Ok, need your help. I'm a lurker whose read this board for awhile. I have niece who moved from PA to St Pete on Saturday and this is her welcome! She doesnt know if she should leave her apartment, she is on the border of evac zones A&B. I said she should, but dont want to overreact. Thoughts?

I feel like most storms have moved east, but that's just a feel, nothing quantitative