Retrobuc

I'm not a weather forecaster and dont pretend to be. I follow this page because it provides interesting information that you cant get elsewhere. So, my method (naïve forecast) may not be something supported by Colorado State or an official agency, but it shows that trends and mathematical data can be just as useful as maps and analogs. I did not play devils advocate, I felt that everyone being 50% higher than the highest ever peak was far too bullish. Looking back at history, previous bullish calls missed by 25-30%. Therefore, I went with the lower baseline and discounted slightly more. Dont get me wrong, I could care less whether I am right or wrong. I am more interested in methodology and how pros use this to correct their modeling.

Better yet, what was your reasoning in only going with 13 named storms in the face of overwhelming model and climate parameter support for a hyperactive season? I mean, you're sharing your numbers while knowing full well the majority of the best TC climatologists on the planet are scrambling for answers. 13 named storms is barely average. I went with those numbers based on another post that showed deviation from the previous high forecast calls. I took that as a baseline and then discounted from there simply using a calculation, not one bit of empirical weather data.

I'm a lurker, but I do financial modeling/forecasting for a living. Since every model called for a hyperactive season, how much do you feel groupthink plays into this? Meterology has become a business and it may be safer to stay with the pack than it is to venture out on your own. Its easier to be wrong with the group than to be wrong as an outlier. Interested to know what people here think. For the record, I said this season would be 13/8/2 in the contest. I feel pretty good about those numbers.

To me the CSU forecast was always too bullish and it seems to have become a game of groupthink after that. You should always be cautious when forecasts for anything are 4-6x higher than the highest point.

What is the timing on this?

I can get behind this.

I read earlier in the week about a large saharan dust layer, which usually makes development difficult. Why is that not the case here?

Im near Daytona Beach and other than rough surf, there have been a few showers and even periods of sun.

13/8/2

I lived in NJ for 50 years until moving to FL a few years ago. These types of events rarely work out for most of NJ and the rain/snow line is usually well north of where its predicted. And resting hopes on the CCB snow being where its forecast is a fools errand. Enjoy whatever snow falls!

Thanks, I think she is going to leave tomorrow morning for our side of the state (Volusia)

Zone B, right on the border of A. She is just of the 275 causeway

Ok, need your help. I'm a lurker whose read this board for awhile. I have niece who moved from PA to St Pete on Saturday and this is her welcome! She doesnt know if she should leave her apartment, she is on the border of evac zones A&B. I said she should, but dont want to overreact. Thoughts?

I feel like most storms have moved east, but that's just a feel, nothing quantitative