Yardstickgozinya

I'm surprised. To me it looks like a storm snapshot projected directly through your brain out your eyes and onto my screen.

Prayers my man. May the Lord give you and your loved ones comfort and strength through this unexpected season of your lives. I've noticed you're a firey guy and a fighter. Keep it up !!! May snow and good health be in your very near future.

There's actually a strong signal for a Dec 16 . There already talikg 18 to 24" . Its only 6808 hours out .

I'm good

No of course not. Relax ! I know it's very tough for you guys seeing that you literally have only kept or semi excepted one posting member into your tribe since 2011. Let's not do this now Seriously !!!

I've been trying to fill some void until your buddies come back, but my new stuff doesn't win over hearts like the old days. Maybe if I post nude selfies of myself again, that will liven this place up. I think you'll be pleased that my tits have doubled in size since Covid, but be warned my chins look like a Foreskin sandwich.

Well, I'll be dipped in shit. Long time no talk lol. I don't doubt that. Maybe it's a directional/ geographic thing . Sometimes, I'm sheltered from the worst here it seems, but not tonight/last night. That's why I made sure to say where I'm at in my post. I had a few minutes of very heavy sustained gusts here earlier, but so far, nothing else quite like that. I also didn't meen to down play the last event. I feel like someone took it that way, but all I said was the strong wind had not gotten to my area yet. Anyways, no biggie. I also never doubt @Jns2183 observations but I definitely wasn't experiencing what he was reporting last event, and he is probably only 3 to 5 miles from me the way the crow flies depending on where he's at in New Cumberland. Stay safe out there today.

I didn't get anything like this where I'm at the last few wind events. Even the more hyped wind events haven't delivered like this one is atm.

The wind I'm experiencing outside atm is the real deal .

I did a lot of deep thinking today, and I think I figured out the scientific explanation why the forum is such a shit storm. We need to remember that no matter what side of the political aisle you're on politics really are nothing but a bunch of hot air weakly capped under forum rules . Then you have guys like me that are super fucking high all the time making really cold posts. Add in a bunch of one-sided, politicial spin to the forum atmosphere, and the next thing you know, people are missing all over the God damn place, and dudes are found tossed into other threads.

The one thing I think we all can agree on is who has the biggest fork around around here.

This channel has awesome high resolution simulations and advanced information on supercells and tornadoes. This video is older but one of his best. Highly recommend watch for storm lovers amateur or pro.

I'm sorry @VoyagerI had no idea you were in Tamaqua. I should have checked first. That's a long way from New Cumberland, lol. I did mention in a comment that the forecast was for my area, so I hope you caught that. The hrrr actually had that second wave timed out pretty good, although I didn't. It's the first time I have ever used the hrrr real time to help make my forcast. It seemed a little progressive to me yesterday comparing it with the radar, so instead of moving my idea of timeing back for the second round I got confused and moved it up . Anyways, it was actually a lot of fun for me. Thanks for being a good sport .

I'm out for a walk with Ekho atm. Lightning of to my west, Spring peepers are calling ,bats are actively feeding and night crawlers have surfaced in mass tonight.

Not bad in the rain department here but the QLCS turnd out to be LGBQ.

I don't even know where you're at . I based that on my local. Make note that is my own forcast looking at things.

Don't take my word for it . I suck lol.

You should have showers moving in soon with bouts of heavy rain and possibly a strong/severe storm (northern edge of a QLCS ) starting around 11:30am and lasting until around 2:30pm. Then we get a break before showers and storms begin to form and move back into the area sometime after 4:00pm. Thers slight potential for low top super cells later this afternoon, and the HRRR is hinting at some showers and storms lingering until around midnight

We have been very lucky to have had several systems time up well with strong solar activity to help drive lightning activity going back to late last summer. unfortunately, activity is quite inadequate to be much of a factor today. I'm not saying we won't see lightning today because it's far from the only parameter.

This post includes both the Spc and Noaa forcast for today. They have been trimmed down only to include localized convective and precipitation details to reduce clutter. SPC AC 050548 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible Wednesday across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur across parts of Florida and east Georgia, and also from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...Synopsis... An intense upper trough, initially over the MS Valley this morning, and characterized by a 500 mb jet streak of 90+ kt, will pivot east across the eastern U.S. through the period. Through the morning and early afternoon hours, a southerly low level jet greater than 60 kt will overspread the Southeast coastal vicinity into the Mid-Atlantic and lower Great Lakes regions. At the surface, strong warm advection will transport 60s F dewpoints northward ahead of an eastward-progressing cold front from FL into southeast GA and as far north as southeast VA. Moisture will become more modest with northward extent into eastern OH/PA/western NY. The net result will be a modestly unstable airmass in the presence of intense deep-layer flow supporting a large area of strong to severe/damaging wind potential. Tornado potential also is possible, with greater potential expected from the Carolinas into southeast VA where low-level moisture will be greater. .SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... A deep surface low tracking west of Pennsylvania into the Great Lakes will set up an active period of weather on Wednesday, with several threats to speak about. An enhanced (55-60kt) LLJ and surging PWATs should result in a band of moderate to heavy rain tracking east across the area between 12Z-21Z Wed. CAMs support QPF in excess of one inch across portions of the Endless Mountains and northern tier. After this initial slug of rainfall, a second round of convection is likely to accompany an arriving cold/occluded front during the late afternoon and evening hours. Latest SPC outlook paints most of Central and Southern PA within a slight risk of severe weather late Wed afternoon and evening. Instability in recent model guidance remains somewhat limited (less than 500 J/kg) but still several hundred J/kg in concert with strong shear justifies the SLGT risk of damaging wind gusts with a broken line of convection along the front. Although the main threat remains locally damaging wind gusts, there will be favorable shear parameters for large hail (across the southwest part of the forecast area. The aforementioned rainfall, coupled with remaining snow on the ground across the northern tier will bring about rises on streams. At this time, rainfall alone is not expected to bring about any flooding concerns, but the combination of snow melt and the wildcard of potential ice jams means there is an elevated risk of flooding Wednesday afternoon and evening over the N Mtns. Recent MARFC SWE across the N Mtns is in the 0.25 to 0.50 inch range.

This man allows hate crimes on a website he owns and operates called American Weather Forums

Make note that this mornings forecast discussion must have been completed before the spc expanded the sligh risk north. I also trimmed down both the Spc and Noaa forcast to only include localized convective and precipitation details to reduce clutter. A deep surface low is progged to track west of PA into the GrtLks by late Tuesday night and Wednesday. Ahead of this system,a 50-60kt southerly low level jet and associated plume of Gulf moisture is progged to sweep across PA. A ribbon of +3-4SD pwats, combined with strong upper level diffluence ahead of the upper trough, should support a band of moderate to heavy rain the first half of Wednesday, followed by a round of PM convection along the trailing cold/occluded front. Elevated instability and strong large scale forcing in the model guidance supports a chance of tsra across the entire area Wed PM. While the focus for possible severe weather is over the southern tier of the state, a MRGL outlook covers much of central PA with a sliver of SLGT extending into far southern Lancaster and York Counties where proximity to the warm sector and where more appreciable instability is possible along and south of potential triple point low track. EPS plumes still suggestive of rainfall totals by late Wed in the 0.75 and 1 inch range over the bulk of Central PA, with orographic enhancement leading to totals close to 1.5 inches over the higher ridgetops of Sullivan/Schuylkill Counties. This amount of rain by itself should not cause flooding issues based on latest flash flood/headwater guidance from the RFC. However, will have to watch for possible localized ice jam issues over the N Mtn, and contribution for SWE locked up in the ice/snow pack over the North Central Mountains, which NOHRSC shows is locally 1-2"+ and sfc dewpoints in the upper 40s would promote appreciable melting.

SPC AC 040614 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...Allegheny Plateau/Mid Atlantic... Early period convective precipitation may contribute to boundary-layer moistening, prior to the onset of increasing insolation beneath a dry slot overspreading the region during the day. Followed by the onset of stronger cooling aloft, model forecast soundings indicate the development of thermodynamic profiles characterized by modest conditional and convective instability, in the presence of strong deep-layer shear. Guidance has been varied concerning the location and extent of scattered pre-frontal thunderstorm development within this regime, but the environment is likely to become at least marginally conducive to scattered organized convection, including supercells@Itstrainingtime. ..Kerr.. 03/04/2025