Yardstickgozinya

Looking a the IR dose put there idea of that in question.

Yes we are supposed to destabilize again.

Does anybody actually read the discussions ???

I forget the name of the place but right below the police station in camp hill there a store that specializes in whole natural baby foods. They have the best raw milk period. The cream line is halfway up the jug if you can get there in time to get the best jugs. You have to sign up to get it and it's Deliver to the store every Wednesday.

Be very careful with raw milk . Healthy cows produce milk much higher in Saturated fats. I only drink raw milk But only a few cups a week now because it almost Single handedly sent my cholesterol through the fkn roof.

Ahead of the cf not on.

That's basically what the hrrr advertised this morning but we're about an hour ahead of schedule The hrrr is definitely showing alot more storm development along the cf an some of them look quite robust.

I have 16 yards of natural mulch Staring at me.. Stay safe out there today.

Hrrr brings pf convection into wcpa around 2:00pm . Although it fires off storms on both fronts and Inbetween It likes the pft as the dominant line of convection. By 4:00pm the leading convection has just crossed the Susquahanna river.

I'm trying out an experimental tool from the spc to do some overlays. Clear blue out ahead of the pre frontal with clearing skies ahead the main front. Apparently there will be enough destabilization storms will initiate on both, but at the end of the day, the closer the storms initiate to the main front the better if you want more robust and mature storms further west and east. So I'm hoping to see a majority of convection break out along the CF and less along the PFT. Hope and expectations are two different things.

Also from the spc ..Eastern U.S... Seasonally strong upper trough is currently located over IL and should advance into the OH Valley by 18z as stronger 500mb flow develops across western PA/NY. With time, 50+kt flow should translate into the Middle Atlantic, coincident/just ahead of the primary synoptic front. Latest model guidance suggests modest 0-3km lapse rates will develop by mid day as the boundary layer warms ahead of the wind shift, especially from the Carolinas into Upstate NY. In fact, much of the I-95 corridor over the Middle Atlantic will warm quickly through the 80s to near 90F, effectively removing any inhibition. As a result, convection should readily develop within a very moist environment (PWs 1.75-2 inches) characterized by MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg. Forecast soundings exhibit deep west-southwesterly flow with 0-6km bulk shear around 30kt. These profiles favor organized line segments and clusters, and severe wind gusts will likely be noted with the most robust activity. Convection should spread off the Middle Atlantic Coast during the evening hours. Full discussion from the spc is in the link below https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

The thinking from the SPC is that the storms will likely fire pre frontal. NWS at the very least, is advertising the potential of the front timing up very well with max daytime heating for cpa. Maybe they aren't buying into the pre-frontal convection at all . You also don't usually hear them say things like "the slight risk remains in place for good reasons," which also shows me that the discrepancies weren't just in my head. Lol .SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... The approach of a long wave trough aloft will put us in the favorable right entrance region of a jet streak moving poleward on Thursday. The cold front associated with this trough will be arriving in Central PA in peak heating/mid-day and shear also increases to 40+KT over most of the area. Expect SHRA and perhaps a TSRA or two to be ongoing in the AM over wrn PA and fire up over the CTP CWA in the late morning and aftn. As the day continues, the CAPEs in the SE get back into the 1500-2000J range in the E. The SPC SLGT risk of severe remains in place for good reasons. Flooding should be much less of a concern Thurs vs Wed with storm motions much quicker despite PWAT values of 1.5-2" (highest E). Still a MRGL risk of excessive rain, though, as repeated cells could make for localized problems. Not enough of a risk nor confidence to post a FF Watch at this point.

I noticed some discrepancies throughout the day with the forecast. The big question seems to be will the storms Initiate along a pre frontal boundary or along the lagging cold front. Watching initiation tomorrow is key. If the storms can get going out head of the cold front instead of the pre-frontal trough we could be looking at something big tomorrow.

I'm not disputing, anything you're saying. I have no doubts that all happened. Just adding my two cents.

Radar estimations give a few spots well over 3" approaching or at 4" NE of Reading.

Beautiful view of distant cumulus nimbus and lightning off to the NW at the moment.

Completely off topic but if your interested in Artificial intelligence and comedy, this is ai comedy gold. Don't miss the fight. https://youtu.be/9HJZYjkNs_s?si=tu5IAGTfGPQ5ZFuB

It appears there might be some flys in the ointment. Waiting to see is spc jumps ship.

I'm probably a little late to the ball game today spc has placed SE pa under a slight risk. ...Mid Atlantic... Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies and strong heating occurring over northern/central VA, where a hot/humid airmass is present. Thunderstorms are expected to develop off the terrain this afternoon and spread eastward into the DelMarVa region. Sufficient flow aloft and steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of strong storms capable wind damage. Isolated strong storms may also affect south-central VA and northern NC later this afternoon as well. Refer to MCD #1344 for further details.

. My subconscious is always looking for an excuse to lay around for a week during my busy season but this is definitely getting a little repetitive and starting a cut into my finances. The good news is the next few days might not disappoint and have Increasing. storm potential to look forward to.

Slight risk probabilities stayed rock steady overnight for Thursday. ...New England into the Mid Atlantic/Southeast... Relatively rich low-level moisture will stream northward ahead of the front approaching New England and the Mid Atlantic during the day on Thursday. Moderate buoyancy may develop as far north asnorthern NY/VT, with pockets of stronger heating/destabilization farther south into the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas/Southeast. The strongest deep-layer flow/shear is still expected from PA/northern NJ northward into New England, where wind profiles will be conditionally supportive of supercells and organized bowing segments. Damaging winds and perhaps a tornado could accompany the strongest storms in this area. Farther south into the southern Mid Atlantic and Carolinas,deep-layer flow will be somewhat unidirectional and weaker, but still sufficient for some organized convection. Clusters capable of producing scattered wind damage will be possible, especially in areas where stronger diurnal heating/destabilization occurs. Deep-layer flow will be rather weak into parts of MS/AL/GA/SC, but the glancing influence of the mid/upper-level trough and relatively large MLCAPE and PW will support storms capable of producing isolated strong/damaging gusts. The full SPC forcast discussion for Thursday is in the link below. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html