Yardstickgozinya

They always predict an average to above average hurricane season unless el nino is present. However, they do seem to break out a little more science to try to figure out the land falling part.

This video embraces the two things I miss dearly right now.Good winners and old times. The suspense is unbearable, but don't worry fellas Sally pulls through.

One of my most useful methodologies i've developed here at the forum is to blend the Canderson Forecasting System with the Blizcon. This seems to always produce extremely accurate and reliable forecasts for me.

I have no idea how accurate this is ,but I do see other historical dates on there that work out. I took it from site called extreme weather watch and it doesn't seem very professional. I'm assuming the July ninth was probably hail or graupel they got recorded as snow. Date Year Snowfall July 9 1930 0.1 inches October 19 1972 1.2 inches October 20 1940 1.5 inches October 29 2011 5.5 inches October 30 1925 2.1 inches November 2 1954 1.8 inches November 3 1962 4.0 inches November 3 1958 0.8 inches November 3 1951 0.7 inches November 5 1976 0.2 inches November 5 1891 1.0 inches November 6 1953 6.5 inches November 7 1953 8.9 inches November 8 1976 0.1 inches November 8 1927 0.4 inches November 8 1910 1.2 inches November 9 1933 0.3 inches November 9 1892 4.8 inches November 10 1987 4.3 inches November 11 1995 1.0 inches November 11 1987 4.8 inches

Hallelujah.

Most plants are aborting at this point because of low moisture in the rhizospher. You need a shorter day than where we're at at this point to trigger etiolation in most plants and trees. However, auxins and other hormones are tied to photo period length and temperature. If the cooler temperatures don't cause abscission, first the shorter photo period eventually will.

Don't be thinking i'm not always rooting for the anomaly or just to be dead wrong because I sure as hell hope I am. I will remain positive and will be rooting for the storms but deep down inside my true feelings will be haunting me. That said, here's a little Ai overview on this winter's solar cycle. I'm not complaining. The 2025–2026 winter is occurring during the Solar Cycle 25 peak, which is expected to last between November 2024 and March 2026. This period of high solar activity is the most intense of the cycle, leading to more frequent and powerful solar storms and increased aurora activity. While the solar maximum influences Earth's atmosphere by heating it and potentially disrupting satellites and power grids, the primary drivers of the winter weather are changing atmospheric conditions, particularly the fading of La Niña and transitioning to ENSO-neutral conditions.

Just did a brief search on the solar phase in 1963 and I wasn't surprised to find this. During the winter of 1963, the Sun was in the declining phase of Solar Cycle 19, heading toward a period of minimal activity. Solar Cycle 19 is notable for having the highest sunspot number ever recorded at its peak, but by 1963, sunspot and flare activity had significantly decreased. We missed out last solar minimum as we sometimes do, but the long cold winters, we all love and miss could and will return any year.But as i've stated year after year, i'm a huge believer that the minimum time frame is our best bet.

What I'm saying is I would much prefer to take my chances with dry and cold and gamble on a overlapping mid to late cold season, active Atlantic or some angry gorillas. I still think we have a few years of descending solar untill we have a chance at a wall to wall banger.

If it's not going to rain, then I would prefer we get into December dry and, with some luck, cool . Snce we made it to this point without much rain, I personally don't want to see to much wet and/or cold around here the next 10 to 12 weeks. If we can get a cold winter, let's not forget we can have well below normal precipitation and still be well above normal in snow accumulation.

One of the first things that popped up on the search so take it with a grain of salt. Harrisburg Rank Temperature Date 1 97 °F October 7, 1941 1 97 °F October 5, 1941 3 93 °F October 2, 2019 3 93 °F October 6, 1941 5 90 °F October 5, 1959 5 90 °F October 1, 1927 7 89 °F October 9, 2007 7 89 °F October 6, 1997 7 89 °F October 5, 1951 7 89 °F October 5, 1922 11 88 °F October 8, 2007 11 88 °F October 6, 1959 11 88 °F October 12, 1954 11 88 °F October 10, 1949 11 88 °F October 4, 1941 11 88 °F October 3, 1919 11 88 °F October 6, 1900 18 87 °F October 1, 2019 18 87 °F October 7, 1963 18 87 °F October 4, 1959 18 87 °F October 2, 1927 18 87 °F October 6, 1922

I'm really looking forward to Sunday. I've been dreaming a lot lately about Barbers Interception, return in the 2002 championship game. I'm more than ready to see Eagle fans cry and go poo poo again. The city and fans have only got a whole lot smellier since 2002. I would have been an eagles fan, but at a young age I got tired of having to smell the city and the Eagles, Schuylkill river bathing fans.

D***I guess they are gonna let the ridiculousness on the site continue until there's nothing left. I've been stopping it in the last couple days hoping to hear some opinions on next week's rain chances. Even when we had whispers of a possible cutoff, energy this place was crickets. I haven't been posting at all so what's the excuse now ? Never mind.

https://youtu.be/azE7nqqQMmo?si=etqrdvu28PyzRfE3

One of the longest stretches of summer boring I can ever remember. This weather sucks and it's depressing. I've been crushing fish all summer though up until recently. The river's doing what the river does, but it is dropping a little more than I'd expect to see this time of year at this point and does look like a historic low level could be in the cards at Harrisburg.

I saw at least one embedded super cell about an hour ago, and I'm at work can't really look at this stuff.

You guys in southeastern pa are already working with 400O J/kg of cape and most of us aren't far behind.

I don't know, man. It feels extremely explosive to me. Maybe it's my steak, egg and cheese bagel I had for breakfast. I don't know ?

Its crazy the nothing has a warning. That cell in York has been impressive on radar for a while.

Around 1" from both storms according to radar estimations.