Yardstickgozinya

May 5, 2024 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook Updated: Sun May 5 17:37:31 UTC 2024 (Print Version | | ) Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table Categorical Tornado Wind Hail Pop. Cities CWAs RFCs Interstates Counties ARTCC FEMA Tribal Categorical Day2 1730Z Outlook Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area MODERATE 26,284 2,179,488 Oklahoma City, OK...Wichita, KS...Norman, OK...Lawton, OK...Edmond, OK... ENHANCED 103,750 6,086,942 Kansas City, MO...Tulsa, OK...Lincoln, NE...Overland Park, KS...Kansas City, KS... SLIGHT 159,772 6,760,986 Omaha, NE...Des Moines, IA...Springfield, MO...Wichita Falls, TX...Denton, TX... MARGINAL 143,745 13,451,709 Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...St. Louis, MO...Plano, TX... Forecast Discussion SPC AC 051737 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CDT Sun May 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected to develop and move eastward Monday afternoon through Monday night across parts of the southern/central Plains. Multiple strong/potentially long-track tornadoes, very large to giant hail, and severe/damaging winds all appear likely. ...Synopsis... Upper cyclone apparent in Sunday morning satellite imagery over northern/central CA and the western Great Basin is expected to devolve into an open wave as it progresses eastward. This wave is forecast to continue eastward through the central Rockies and into the central Plains on Monday, becoming increasingly negatively tilted as it does. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this system, spreading eastward/northeastward into the central Plains early Monday and into the southern High Plains by Monday afternoon. Additional maturing into a closed mid-latitude cyclone is possible across the northern High Plains late Monday evening/early Tuesday morning. Progression of this shortwave trough will contribute to significant mass response across the Plains, with strong low-level moisture advection resulting in mid 60s dewpoints to the OK/KS border by the early afternoon. Low 60s dewpoints will likely reach into eastern NE by the late afternoon. This increasing low-level moisture beneath steep mid-level lapse rates/cold mid-level temperatures will result in a moderate to strongly unstable airmass ahead of the approaching shortwave across much of OK, KS, and NE. Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected to develop as this wave interacts with this airmass, beginning during the late morning/early afternoon across SD/NE and then expanding southward across KS into OK throughout the remainder of the afternoon into the evening. Significant-severe weather is possible, including the potential for giant hail from 3" to 4" in diameter, gusts around 80 mph, and strong/potentially long-track tornadoes. ...Much of central/eastern NE and south-central/southeast SD into western/northern/eastern KS and western MO... Strong height falls associated with this system will likely begin early Monday across NE and western/northern KS, interacting with the moderately moist and buoyant air mass expected to be in place. The cold front associated with this system will likely be moving through western NE and KS during this period as well. This initial development may not be overly strong, with the primary strengthening likely delayed until the afternoon over central NE and north-central KS where better low-level moisture and stronger buoyancy will be in place. Given the boundary-parallel orientation of the deep-layer shear vector and linear forcing along the front, relatively quick upscale growth into an organized convective line appears likely. This line would then track quickly eastward/southeastward through the evening and overnight. Large to very large hail around 2" to 2.5" in diameter is possible with the initial more cellular development. Primary threat will transition to severe gusts around 80 mph once the convective line organizes and consolidates, which appears likely during the afternoon. Additionally, despite the transition to a more linear mode, the tornado threat is expected to increase with eastern extent, supported by both an increase in low-level moisture/buoyancy and strengthening low-level kinematic fields. The greater damaging gust threat will likely extend into more far eastern KS and western MO, and the higher wind probabilities were expanded eastward to account for this potential. Some minor southeastward expansion of the 10% tornado probabilities was made as well. ...Much of OK and adjacent portions of central/southern KS and far northwest/north-central TX... Height falls are expected to arrive later, and be more modest, across OK and adjacent central/south KS than areas farther north. Some capping appears likely through around 18Z as well. However, continued low-level moisture advection coupled with daytime heating is expected to result in air mass destabilization just as the height falls/large-scale ascent move into the region. This scenario appears to favor a discrete storm mode from south-central KS into southwest OK. Overall coverage may be limited, particularly until 00Z, but any storms that develop should quickly become supercellular and capable of all severe hazards, including giant hail from 3" to 4" in diameter, severe gusts to 80 mph, and strong tornadoes. Additionally, forecast hodographs are quite long, with little mid-level weakness. Mean storm motion is around 50 kt from 21 to 00Z, with Bunkers right motion around 30 kt. This should be more than sufficient for storms to remain discrete and maintain supercell characteristics. This also contributes to a greater potential for long-track tornadoes. The tornado threat will persist pass sunset and into the evening, supported by the persistence of ample low-level moisture/buoyancy and a strengthening low-level jet. Most current guidance maximizes the STP at 8-10 around 03Z over south-central OK. A threat for damaging winds and tornadoes should continue Monday night into early Tuesday with eastward extent into eastern OK and western AR given a sufficiently unstable and strongly sheared environment.

Texas

Yesterday's Bennington, Nebraska tornado may break the 11 year streak without an EF-5.

I noticed the over shooting top and beautiful structure as I was working in Mechanicsburg. Definitely had classic super cell structure. Beautiful storm !!!

Two reports from that cell atm 1942 UNK 2 E Heidlersburg Adams PA 3992 7705 Wires reported down and a carport collapsed along Carlisle Pike north of New Oxford. (CTP) 2023 150 1 NE New Freedom York PA 3975 7668 Ping pong ball sized hail reported northeast of New Freedom. (CTP)

The cell that went through Adam's and York was definitely a compact super cell with very nice rotation and hail core. I haven't heard much about this storm . Probably not enough instability at the surface to get things cranking at ground level.

Some roofs damaged and trees down just north of Lewistown. People on Facebook say it was a tornado ,but looking over the radar I saw no rotation in that location. What it dose look like is that a cell collapsed right over that area, so I'm thinking it was strong downdrafts .

You forgot to mention they have found the 9th and final red heifer for the third temple sacrifice during passover at the Mount of Olives . I'm not taking about Nanny, I'm talikg about the biblical end times heifer.

Graupel here in Fairview Township.

If any one read the post a deleted. It was only felt in the Poconos. My mistake.

I don't see anything tall or intense on radar in my area.

Massive grauple , hail maybe?

Pouring rain , graupel and even a few snow flakes out here in Mechanicsburg were I am working. Temps in the upper 40's

I friend in Lewistown sent these to me.

Not much change to this mornings update atp.

This spring and summer climatology is not conducive to an above average season for severe weather east of the Mississippi, but active solar conditions could help enhance are storms quit a bit as far as lightning frequency. Judging by today and tomorrow the eastern USA is off to an early start so we shall see.

Alot of mowing has commenced since I made that post. No shortage of mowers running in the distance over the weekend.

Seeing a mod Risk 24 hours in advance is often an indication of a high risk day . I agree with @Itstrainingtimethat the pretty colors will expand.

I have 20+ clients spread out all around the Harrisburg area. Not a single one has had to mow yet although a few are now ready for a first mowing.