Yardstickgozinya

Spc's new severe wind and tornado probability outlook.

New update from the Spc . A zone of moderate risk has been added. Its definitely not looking good fellas, and I don't know that things will de escalate, at least on paper so let's hope for a thermodynamic failure at the lowest levels because the crazy, kinematics seem pretty eminent. Full discussion is in the link below the map. ...Carolinas into MD/PA and vicinity... Areas of showers may occur early in the day especially but should rapidly lift north, allowing areas of heating and gradual destabilization over the entire area. As the surface trough deepens, low-level wind will back and strengthen throughout the day. Supercells producing tornadoes appear most likely ahead of the cold front from SC into NC and southern VA. Models vary with degree of instability, but strong tornadoes do appear possible with effective SRH of at least 300-400 m2/s2. Fast storm motions over 50 kt suggest a long tracked tornado will be possible https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Back many years ago I was cat fishing the Marietta bend below chickies rock when a suspected meteoriite made impact somewhere in lancaster. Whatever tonight was was also many magnitudes, brighter and louder then that.

Apparently, they can set off ordinance after sunset, but i've certainly never seen the flash from explosions that far away this lit everything up like it was daytime and seemed to come from the sky. It was also many times louder than any ordinance.I've ever heard from indian town gap.

Did you hear it too?

I don't think they can set off ordinance after the sunsets.

Two extremely bright flashes over the last 15 minutes out this way, both followed by massive explosions. It shook everything. It actually happened during the day they other day here, and they never figured out what it was. Read about something like this happening in another part of Pennsylvania recently.

My best buddy is sending me some pretty insane pictures and videos of flooding and mudslides on Maui that are still in progress . According to him there's still plenty more to come. He was out taking pictures and shooting video, but unfortunately, he's now in the process of trying to save his gym. Those cars are actually floating down the street in that video snapshot.

The latest nws take on severe and snow. Plenty to be worked out yet ,but I get the feeling, this is all going to work out for the best or the worst, depending on how you look at it. Exciting times ahead. Monday continues to be a period of high focus, as model consensus zeroes in on the potential for significant convective development. At this early juncture, confidence is quite high on the synoptic-scale evolution (the approach of a negatively tilted upper-trough, an associated sharp cold front, and impressively strong wind fields at all levels). More uncertainty still has to be dealt with, though, in terms of smaller-scale factors, such as: exact timing of the cold frontal passage, can any breaks develop in the overcast conditions that should prevail to start the day (which would enhance instability)?, and convective mode (will any discrete cells form ahead of a probable intense squall line?). Bottom line, though, ultimately we have increasing levels of confidence in high wind producing thunderstorms Monday afternoon, with the best potential for damaging gusts near and south of I-80, as well as east of I-99. Please stay tuned for later updates over the next couple of days. KEY MESSAGE 2: Following Monday storminess, a period of sharply colder temperatures is expected through mid-week, with some snow possible Monday night, as the cold air first builds in. On Monday evening, once the surface cold front pushes through, colder air should rush in. At issue is how much steadier precipitation will linger behind the boundary. Given favorable upper jet placement and the probability that some wrap-around moisture will get steered into the Commonwealth, there is the potential for a quick 1-3" of snow in some areas Monday night, particularly over the higher terrain and northern sections of the state. Again, this will come down to smaller details, so it is advised that you stay tuned for later forecast updates

Not only will it likely get expanded, but once they better pinpoint, where the concentration of discrete cells will be, I expect an upgraded considering the anomalous kinematics. Make no mistake, there's been indications that there will be discrete convection in our area before the front can move through. That's what facilitated such an early thirty percent highlight.

Sometimes I get really p***** off when I think about all the stuff I wrote as Flatheadsickness that got deleted. The crazy thing is you all can choose to believe or not but this phenomenon has commonly been witnessed by cannabis growers including myself during lights out for years . Back in my FHS days, some you may or may not remember I actually wrote about trees and Turgor movements right before thunderstorms which may or not be related to Coronae glow. Back when I wrote about it, I just didn't know the proper scientific term for changes in the leaf . I still witness turgor movements in tree foliage every single foliage season right before thunderstorms ,but no one else ever seemes the notice. Thunderstorms conjure ghostly coronae in treetops, observed outdoors for the first time The weak electric discharges may set off ultraviolet sparkles over large swaths of forest under storms, potentially impacting canopy health 23 February 2026 Coronae glow on the tips of spruce needles, induced by charged metal plates in a laboratory. These weak electric discharges subtly singe the tips of leaves and needles, and new observations indicate they may occur ubiquitously across treetops under thunderstorms. Credit: William Brune AGU press contact: Sean Cummings, [email protected] (UTC-8 hours) Researcher contact: Patrick McFarland, The Pennsylvania State University, [email protected] (UTC-5 hours https://news.agu.org/press-release/thunderstorms-conjure-ghostly-coronae-in-treetops-observed-outdoors-for-the-first-time/

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html

Bounded weak echo region is another thing that came to mind, but I would think it would have a lot more lightning.

Yes, I may have a wrong picture, but one is coming together. Lol I believe the storm was cycling in the signatures that @mahantango#1 posted and we're seeing the very moment the old inflow, notch closed up. I also believe the storm probably cycled like this several times before it could form a tornado. @MAG5035 feel free to to let me down.

You were under some of that convection, or you're just getting wind/rain

Yeah, just kinda looks to me like it closed off Its feed of cooler dry air to the meso and you're just seeing what's left of it getting pinch to the center, and that's also probably what killed any chance of it forming a tornado. I could be completely wrong because I don't have access to watch it again and can't see the whole storm in the images. I included a picture of a cell below that is showing circulation beginning to dog leg. You can see the mesocyclone, catching up with the rear flank of the precipitation core and eventually, if they merge and you catch it at the right moment, that close off point can certainly can be confused for a debris ball. I want to reiterate that this is not our super sell from the other day. This is just one I chose for the dog leg.

And just to be clear, anybody could make that mistake with their eyes . That's why surveys are so necessary even with radar confirmation.

So while i'm already looking stupid, it's probably a good time to add my stupid analysis. I don't have the means to go back and look at this nor did I ever see it in such high detail but it looks to me like the circulation dog leged and just embedded itself into the cell giving the illusion of a the debris ball.

LOL it's even circled in the corner. I was looking for a supercell and my eye just immediately said, what the hell is that and just never connected the history of the date. But anywho the wind has died down here and the spring peepers are actually still chirping tonight, so it's not bad out here at all, while i'm wrapping up work in Mechanicsburg.

I think you had an upload error

Quasi linear convective system with embedded rotations is the mode they keep throwing out although there is talks of more discrete development out ahead, even into Pennsylvania. I would indeed bet that some of those segments, and even the whole line could qualify ifor derecho status if the parameters should be realized.

Oh, I still haven't heard it mentioned anywhere.It was just an observation of mine.

With possible embedded rotations

Yes, extremely interesting. I also am hearing that an extremely potent jet streak it is expected to enhance convection and sheer from the middle Mississippi into the Ohio valley Sunday night into Monday . The last time I think any of us saw such robust nighttime convection this early in the season was 2011 and even that benchmark season waited until mid April to start it's nocturnal shenanigans. Apparently, the situation could be a lot more ominous had the last system not kicked the moisture.

There's professional discussion now of severe weather, making it the whole way up into New England. It also looks to me like a little backside snow could possibly make it into the discussion as we move forward although I haven't heard it mentioned anywhere.