Yardstickgozinya

It's still early in the day, but meso scale data has been updated and at this juncture we are missing 2 of the most important parameters for tornadoes, surface cape and surface velocity (top graphic) are basically not existing at this point. There is a slight overlap in the chesapeake, but a surface cape of 25 and a surface velocity 2 is most likely not producing a tornado. There's also, some areas of extra overlaps around the Hagerstown area with some other meso scale parameters ,but nothing exceptional with this point. I'll be watching the surface all day as long as i'm not napping. We do have rising downdraft cape (bottom graphic) parameters so anyone who gets under convection or , even heavy rain might be in for a rough time. I'm sure no one needs any reminders, but I'm an idiot not a met., so make sure you're listening to your local met and not an idiot.

Highlight Changed Discussion -- 049 FXUS61 KCTP 160905 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 505 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Wind Advisories extended across northern PA and issued east of US-15 to account for gusty pre-frontal winds this afternoon. * Added details about timing of multiple rounds of showers/storms this afternoon. * Issued Winter Weather Advisory for Laurels & Northwest Mountains tonight for a thump of snow behind the cold front. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Gusty winds continue through this afternoon ahead of a cold frontal passage. 2) Multiple rounds of showers and storms will bring an Enhanced Risk of severe weather this afternoon and evening, with damaging winds and a few tornadoes as the primary threats. 3) Sharply colder temperatures arrive this evening with a thump of heavy snow possible across the west, and the chilly weather hangs around through midweek. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Gusty winds continue through this afternoon ahead of a cold frontal passage. An impressive wind field continues to overspread Pennsylvania this morning and gusty south winds are expected throughout the day. Locations to the north and west of any steep terrain will continue to experience the strongest wind gusts during the day today, with sustained winds of 15 to 25mph and gusts 30 to 45 mph expected. A Wind Advisory remains in effect for the northern tier through early this afternoon, and then a Wind Advisory will go into effect for locations east of US-15 this afternoon through the evening. Note that gusty winds are expected across the entire area today and any showers or storms will tap into a very strong wind field aloft, bringing locally enhanced wind gusts. KEY MESSAGE 2: Multiple rounds of showers and storms will bring an Enhanced Risk of severe weather this afternoon and evening, with damaging winds and a few tornadoes as the primary threats. The Storm Prediction Center has continued with their Enhanced Risk (Level 3 out of 5) today. There appear to be two distinct rounds of rain that will cross the region. The first will be a pre-frontal line of storms that are currently crossing eastern Ohio and will get into our western counties (Warren/Somerset) between 9 and 10AM. As this line moves across the Commonwealth, it will encounter increasing amounts of instability (500-1000J/kg of MLCAPE) and intensify. The line is not currently producing any lightning, but lighting activity should commence by late this morning as it crosses the I-99 corridor. Damaging winds will be the primary threat with this line of storms, but a favorable low level wind profile with ~200 m2/s2 of 0-3km SRH will be sufficient for tornadoes along any portions of the line that develop kinks or discrete elements with embedded supercells. The second round of concern is when the surface cold front crosses the region. Although most of the instability will be absorbed by the first batch of storms, a potent isallobaric pressure fall/rise couplet will provide plenty of lift to produce a narrow cold frontal rainband. With 50+ kt winds just above the surface, it won`t take much to mix down strong to damaging winds. This line of rain and winds likely won`t have any lightning with it, but the wind will pack a punch as cold air pours in behind it. The cold front and associated damaging wind threat will clear our eastern counties by 10 or 11PM. QPF will be 1 to 1.5" for locations east of the I-99/US-15 corridor, and isolated 2" amounts are possible at higher elevations in Schuylkill and Sullivan County. Antecedent dry conditions should preclude any major flooding concerns, but ponding on roadways is a real possibility. If you have outdoor plans on Monday afternoon and evening, be sure to monitor the weather and consider changing your plans. KEY MESSAGE 3: Sharply colder temperatures arrive this evening with a thump of heavy snow possible across the west, and the chilly weather hangs around through midweek. This evening, once the surface cold front pushes through, colder air should rush in. At issue is how much steadier precipitation will linger behind the boundary. Given favorable upper jet placement and the probability that some wrap-around moisture will get steered into the Commonwealth, there is the potential for a quick 1-4" of snow in western portions of the state. HREF probabilities of 1" per hour snowfall rates are impressive and a several hour period of thumping snow are possible in the Laurels and northwest mountains. The latest WPC Winter Storm Outlook, which depicts probabilities of Winter Storm Warning level snowfall amounts, paints 30-50% probabilities from Somerset north to Warren/McKean/Potter County with a few pixels over 50% in McKean County. Although Warning level amounts are unlikely, the combination of favorable lift, heavy snow rates, and onset after sunset lead to confidence in at least Advisory level amounts/impacts. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from 21Z/5PM today through 06Z/2AM Tuesday for the northwest counties. The Advisory will continue through Tuesday afternoon (in collaboration with PBZ and LWX) in Cambria and Somerset County for lingering upslope snow showers. WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for PAZ004>006- 010>012-037-041. Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT Tuesday for PAZ004>006-010>012-017-018. Wind Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for PAZ017-018-024- 033. Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 PM EDT Tuesday for PAZ024-033. Wind Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for PAZ042. Wind Advisory from noon today to 11 PM EDT this evening for

At 4:27am there's no shortage of blips going up in the warm sector off to our south and west They'll definitely be coming into our vicinity this morning and beyond if they don't wane. Whether or not they'll help to stabilize or become something that we don't want to see is something i'll let up the professionals on this day. Things pobably needs to play out a little longer and the sun needs to come up before anyone really knows anyway.

I hiked one of tornado trails as a kid with my older sister. I don't exactly remember the year but she will. I believe it was 88 or 89 and the trail was still very obvious. I have pictures of the trails and myself in front of the plaques there. I will eventually scan and post. I initially stated that it was the Albion tornado trail but that is not correct.I do know it was near the town of Albion and was a destination to hike the trails.

Starting to see initiation of a fleet of cells out ahead of the front in Alabama at 2:00AM probably not good situation.

12:30pm SPC update. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Sandwich RGB . Sorry, I had to cut off the timestamp, keys and a lot of the edges to get the file small enough. I've also included a lightning map with the last hour of detected strikes.

Starting to come together, Pepper, starting to come together. The frontogenesis starting at 6:41pm up until the last frame of the gif at 8:51 pm was pretty fricking, incredible. I wanted to include the sandwich RGB loop, but the files are too large.

Just observing where things we're heading.

Hopefully nothing now.

Everybody in this forum's compassionate person. Nobody wants to see anybody get hurt and not one single gripe. Orbit of excitement is going to change any of it g******** I came back and edited this because not everybody in this forum is compassionate towards life and property but I do believe or sub is.

JUST SPEAKING, HONESTLY HERE, I'M NOT TRYING TO BE AN A****** TO ANYBODY, OKAY. IT'S ALREADY OBVIOUS TO ME THAT SOME PEOPLE WANNA GO TO THE HYSTERIA ROUTE THAT IS FINE MAYBE IT'LL BE WARRANTED , BUT THERE'S NO REASON WHY OTHER PEOPLE HAVE TO FEEL THAT WAY? THAT'S ALL, I'M GOING TO SAY ABOUT IT. SO PLEASE DON'T GET ON MY BACK BECAUSE I'M GOING TO BE EXCITED AND I'M ALSO GOING TO BE PRAYING FOR THE PEOPLE IN THE PATH. AND IF THERE IS DAMAGE AND PEOPLE NEED HELP. GUESS WHO'S GOING TO BE THE FIRST PERSON POSTING PICTURES, ACTUALLY HELPING PEOPLE OUT. MY POINT IS, IF EVERYBODY'S NOT FREE TO EXPERIENCE THIS THE WAY THEY WANT.I'M GONNA LOSE MY F****** S***.

Two moderate risks since 2018 .

We've had several moderate risks.There's been at least two in the last couple of years. And then theres May 31 1999 High Risk. Although they all had their damage and problems, none of them we're locally catastrophic.

Spc's new severe wind and tornado probability outlook.

New update from the Spc . A zone of moderate risk has been added. Its definitely not looking good fellas, and I don't know that things will de escalate, at least on paper so let's hope for a thermodynamic failure at the lowest levels because the crazy, kinematics seem pretty eminent. Full discussion is in the link below the map. ...Carolinas into MD/PA and vicinity... Areas of showers may occur early in the day especially but should rapidly lift north, allowing areas of heating and gradual destabilization over the entire area. As the surface trough deepens, low-level wind will back and strengthen throughout the day. Supercells producing tornadoes appear most likely ahead of the cold front from SC into NC and southern VA. Models vary with degree of instability, but strong tornadoes do appear possible with effective SRH of at least 300-400 m2/s2. Fast storm motions over 50 kt suggest a long tracked tornado will be possible https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Back many years ago I was cat fishing the Marietta bend below chickies rock when a suspected meteoriite made impact somewhere in lancaster. Whatever tonight was was also many magnitudes, brighter and louder then that.

Apparently, they can set off ordinance after sunset, but i've certainly never seen the flash from explosions that far away this lit everything up like it was daytime and seemed to come from the sky. It was also many times louder than any ordinance.I've ever heard from indian town gap.

Did you hear it too?

I don't think they can set off ordinance after the sunsets.

Two extremely bright flashes over the last 15 minutes out this way, both followed by massive explosions. It shook everything. It actually happened during the day they other day here, and they never figured out what it was. Read about something like this happening in another part of Pennsylvania recently.

My best buddy is sending me some pretty insane pictures and videos of flooding and mudslides on Maui that are still in progress . According to him there's still plenty more to come. He was out taking pictures and shooting video, but unfortunately, he's now in the process of trying to save his gym. Those cars are actually floating down the street in that video snapshot.

The latest nws take on severe and snow. Plenty to be worked out yet ,but I get the feeling, this is all going to work out for the best or the worst, depending on how you look at it. Exciting times ahead. Monday continues to be a period of high focus, as model consensus zeroes in on the potential for significant convective development. At this early juncture, confidence is quite high on the synoptic-scale evolution (the approach of a negatively tilted upper-trough, an associated sharp cold front, and impressively strong wind fields at all levels). More uncertainty still has to be dealt with, though, in terms of smaller-scale factors, such as: exact timing of the cold frontal passage, can any breaks develop in the overcast conditions that should prevail to start the day (which would enhance instability)?, and convective mode (will any discrete cells form ahead of a probable intense squall line?). Bottom line, though, ultimately we have increasing levels of confidence in high wind producing thunderstorms Monday afternoon, with the best potential for damaging gusts near and south of I-80, as well as east of I-99. Please stay tuned for later updates over the next couple of days. KEY MESSAGE 2: Following Monday storminess, a period of sharply colder temperatures is expected through mid-week, with some snow possible Monday night, as the cold air first builds in. On Monday evening, once the surface cold front pushes through, colder air should rush in. At issue is how much steadier precipitation will linger behind the boundary. Given favorable upper jet placement and the probability that some wrap-around moisture will get steered into the Commonwealth, there is the potential for a quick 1-3" of snow in some areas Monday night, particularly over the higher terrain and northern sections of the state. Again, this will come down to smaller details, so it is advised that you stay tuned for later forecast updates

Not only will it likely get expanded, but once they better pinpoint, where the concentration of discrete cells will be, I expect an upgraded considering the anomalous kinematics. Make no mistake, there's been indications that there will be discrete convection in our area before the front can move through. That's what facilitated such an early thirty percent highlight.

Sometimes I get really p***** off when I think about all the stuff I wrote as Flatheadsickness that got deleted. The crazy thing is you all can choose to believe or not but this phenomenon has commonly been witnessed by cannabis growers including myself during lights out for years . Back in my FHS days, some you may or may not remember I actually wrote about trees and Turgor movements right before thunderstorms which may or not be related to Coronae glow. Back when I wrote about it, I just didn't know the proper scientific term for changes in the leaf . I still witness turgor movements in tree foliage every single foliage season right before thunderstorms ,but no one else ever seemes the notice. Thunderstorms conjure ghostly coronae in treetops, observed outdoors for the first time The weak electric discharges may set off ultraviolet sparkles over large swaths of forest under storms, potentially impacting canopy health 23 February 2026 Coronae glow on the tips of spruce needles, induced by charged metal plates in a laboratory. These weak electric discharges subtly singe the tips of leaves and needles, and new observations indicate they may occur ubiquitously across treetops under thunderstorms. Credit: William Brune AGU press contact: Sean Cummings, [email protected] (UTC-8 hours) Researcher contact: Patrick McFarland, The Pennsylvania State University, [email protected] (UTC-5 hours https://news.agu.org/press-release/thunderstorms-conjure-ghostly-coronae-in-treetops-observed-outdoors-for-the-first-time/