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Everything posted by Yardstickgozinya
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Central PA Spring 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
Yardstickgozinya replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
You can clearly see in the fifth picture that that lowering is the mesocyclone, and not just a shelf cloud. If that thing couldn't get a tornado to the ground what can ? -
Central PA Spring 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
Yardstickgozinya replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Steady ass rain here this morning with real shity f****** cold and wind's blowing at bullshit speed, with some sideways mist mixed in for extra penetration. -
Central PA Spring 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
Yardstickgozinya replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
I thought maybe this would help some enjoy the step out the door this morning. I want extreme cold and wet,I need warm and dry, but when the hell do I get either. -
Central PA Spring 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
Yardstickgozinya replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
The only power outages I could find up that way that we're listed was by pp&l, and I believe I counted 17. It doesn't mean that there wasn't touchdowns or severe weather,but it looks like it might have been pretty sporadic and not a swath. -
Central PA Spring 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
Yardstickgozinya replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
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Central PA Spring 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
Yardstickgozinya replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Me too. My aunt lives up near him and is reporting some pretty extensive tree damage. She's in her eighties, so I didn't ask her to go out and take any pictures for her me. -
Central PA Spring 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
Yardstickgozinya replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Really amazing picture regardless. That's not to far from me. I wish I could have been that close. -
Central PA Spring 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
Yardstickgozinya replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Actually, the area I am talking about is in lemoyne not Camphill. -
Central PA Spring 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
Yardstickgozinya replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
I mean, I could be wrong. But I believe that sign in the background specifically sells, diesel gas . If @Voyager can confirm this.I believe this photo was taken in CampHill, by the harrisburg hydroponic and the old Coca cola shipping facility, if they're even there any longer. -
Central PA Spring 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
Yardstickgozinya replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
I'm also getting hammered here pretty good. -
Central PA Spring 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
Yardstickgozinya replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Absolutely beautiful pictureb but I live here in Lewisberry and I've never seen any of that stuff in my life. It looks like it could either be Middletown or maybe even in camp hill, near the hydroponic shop. I also couldn't see any of that from where i'm at I've been outside looking. -
Central PA Spring 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
Yardstickgozinya replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
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Central PA Spring 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
Yardstickgozinya replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
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Central PA Spring 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
Yardstickgozinya replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
True, hook just showed up, it's starting to turn right. It appears the warining box takes the right turn into account. -
Central PA Spring 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
Yardstickgozinya replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
My boy said he's been crushing the smallies today. He's back on dad's favorite hole on the Conawago West stealing my fish. Lol -
Central PA Spring 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
Yardstickgozinya replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
No updates from the SPC yet this morning. Its not uncommon for the NWS or SPC to run late on their updates recently ,and sometimes not at all.. I wonder if they're waiting on sounding data updates. -
Central PA Spring 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
Yardstickgozinya replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
-- Highlight Changed Discussion -- 420 FXUS61 KCTP 110944 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 544 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Minor changes to SPC outlook limited to expanding the tornado and wind threat eastward into the Lower Susquehanna Valley, but degree of instability remains uncertain. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms expected today, starting with nonsevere morning convection. Some storms this afternoon and evening may be severe with damaging winds along with the possibility of a few tornadoes if enough instability is realized. 2) Settling into a cooler and windy pattern for the end of the week into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms expected today, starting with nonsevere morning convection. Some storms this afternoon and evening may be severe with damaging winds along with the possibility of a few tornadoes if enough instability is realized. A cold front will sweep through tonight into Thursday, as an upper trough approaches the region. Ahead of the front, numerous showers and some thunderstorms are anticipated today and this evening. The SPC Day 1 Slight Risk area continues to include practically all of central PA with minor changes limited to expanding the tornado and wind threat eastward into the Lower Susquehanna Valley. The main uncertainty with respect to the severe threat continues to be instability with recent HREF model guidance indicating considerable cloudiness across much of the area with multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms limiting insolation. Probabilities of SBCAPE exceeding 500 J/kg in the most recent HREF top out in the 40-70 pct range across southwestern and south central PA this afternoon and early evening. Generally less than a 40 pct chance north of I-80. That said, with winds of 40-50 kts in the lowest 3km of the atmosphere, it wouldn`t take much to bring some damaging winds down the ground. While damaging straight line winds will be the most common threat with today`s convection, the SPC D1 outlook also maintains CIG1 hatching over much of southern Pennsylvania, meaning the conditional probability of an EF2 tornado is greater than the climatological average. In other words, if tornadoes do develop across southern PA, they could be strong. This is supported by 250-300 m2/s2 effective SRH and LCLs near 1000 m this afternoon and early evening. KEY MESSAGE 2: Settling into a cooler and windy pattern for the end of the week into early next week. As the base of the trough and associated surface cold front cross PA, a sharp temperature drop in the wake of the cold front may result in any lingering postfrontal precip changing over to snow Wed night into Thu. Given the limited precip and warm ground, not expecting snow accumulation. NW winds will gust 30-40 kts behind the front early Thursday. Winds will get weaker as the day progresses on Thursday. The next system will be a potent Clipper moving across the Great Lakes on Friday. This will likely bring a band of rain and snow showers across mainly the north, but otherwise more of a wind producer than a precip maker. Wind gusts in the 40-50 kt range are possible Fri afternoon into Friday night as the pressure gradient tightens. Wind chills drop into the teens and 20s Friday night into early Saturday, a big change from the recent warm weather. Guidance favors a Great Lakes Cutter track for the next system Sunday into Monday. This would result in a corridor of warmer air pushing in ahead of the system, with highs rising back into the upper 40s and 50s. Much colder air and gusty winds push back in behind the cold front Monday night with chilly temps around through the middle of next week. Latest NBM guidance shows highs stuck in the 20s and 30s on Tuesday, some 15-20 degrees below average. && .AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conditions expected overnight as a potent frontal boundary inches toward the area but remains west. Visibilities may drop in BR at a few locations as the temperature / dewpoint spread is just a degree or two. Convection over Michigan and northern Indiana will generally move into New York state with showers possibly making it as far south as KBFD after sunrise. Elsewhere, conditions should remain dry into the early afternoon with increasing winds from the southwest. Pre-frontal line of storms looks to cross the state through the mid-afternoon through early evening from west to east. Expect LLWS in TSRA gusts. The actual front will cross the region toward the end of the forecast period with a brief period of heavy rain showers and a wind shift to the northwest. Outlook... Thu-Fri...Windy and colder. Scattered rain and snow showers, with restrictions possible. Sat...Remaining brisk, with restrictions in rain and snow showers most likely at KBFD and KJST. Sun...Rain and snow showers possible across the northern half of PA. Restrictions possible. && .CLIMATE... As of 530 PM, some new records. Altoona temperature estimated at 78 for the high today, old record of 72 degrees set in 1986. Bradford high of 70 broke the old record of 66 degrees set in 1986. Williamsport high of 77 broke the old record of 71 degrees set in 1977. Harrisburg high of 80 broke the old record of 79 degrees set in 2016. Earlier info. below. Near-record warmth is expected Tuesday into Wednesday across Pennsylvania with highs in the 60s & 70s and lows in the 50s. RECORD TEMPERATURES TUE 3/10 WED 3/11 MAX T MIN T MAX T Altoona 72 (1986) 49 (1990) 74 (2025) Bradford 66 (1986) 49 (2021) 66 (2025) Harrisburg 79 (2016) 49 (1955) 76 (2021) State College 76 (2016) 52 (2016) 72 (1986) Williamsport 71 (1977) 50 (1898) 75 (2025) && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Colbert KEY MESSAGES...Colbert DISCUSSION...Colbert/Beaty AVIATION...Tyburski CLIMATE...Banghoff -
Central PA Spring 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
Yardstickgozinya replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
I just took a walk around my house this morning and I wasn't surprised to see the Wood frogs or the or the red back salamander, but I haven't see too many snakes out in March, if any ,especially at night. I generally only see snakes out at night late June July and August on the warmest of nights. I try to avoid as many as I could, but frogs and toads were popping under my tires as I drove by some wetlands last night. I absolutely love frogs and toads and will stop to save them when they're not everywhere. I always save large bullfrogs and turtles if I see them on the road . -
Central PA Spring 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
Yardstickgozinya replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
I like the feeling being at the head of the action. It makes me feel like we won't get the shaft, but the south better be on there balls tomorrow. -
Central PA Spring 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
Yardstickgozinya replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Lol that didn't come out, right.But I got you. -
Central PA Spring 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
Yardstickgozinya replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Ah, okay, I use snapshots. -
Central PA Spring 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
Yardstickgozinya replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
The hook that just crossed the northern Missouri Indiana border is worth going back and looking at. -
Central PA Spring 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
Yardstickgozinya replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
I don't to basically post a double map, so I thought I'd add spc's discussion for tomorrow to your post. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html -
Central PA Spring 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
Yardstickgozinya replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Why did , your map chang? This isn't the one that you posted. -
Central PA Spring 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
Yardstickgozinya replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
My Son and his budy from work had some luck the past two days on the Conawago West and the Susqy fishing from shore. I saw a few boats out today Lake Frederick Goldsborough area hitting in the mouths of the creeks.
