Yardstickgozinya

You fucking dirty little COC sucker . Every time I turn my back , you fucking sabotage me .

I'm pretty sure I here thunder to my south . I'm working in Mechanicsburg.

@Voyager here's a link https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/90fwbg.gif

I hope I'm not out of place . I am trying to come from a helpful and kind place. I see you did your best this morning to fill yourself in and thats awesome. Start your morning with a surface map . I have confidence you will find the fronts lol.

A lot of times showers and storms that form during the day will outrun the front as time progresses. By the next morning, what's left over will often be way out ahead of the front as it dissipates and ends up becoming fuel for the next round or a hindrance to daytime heating and convection.

Sorry , I just realized you read the discussion and weren't actually asking .

I have been trying to access the Hrrr this morning and unfortunately I keep encountering a server error but all the other tools There should be some sun this morning, and I'm assuming there will be some burn off until things refire later today. I have not been able to access the hrrr all morning due to a server error, and It has a cloud forecasting feature.

This is only concerning today's event. The full Nws forecast discussion can be found in the link at the bottom. .SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... Monday will be active, at least across the SErn third to half of the area. A strengthening surface low will track north of PA,dragging a trailing cold front through Central PA during the afternoon and early evening. Latest guidance indicates the pre-frontal low level jet and plume of deepest moisture will be over Southeast PA. Thus, the highest POPs and best chance of severe weather is targeted over that part of the state. RH profiles support midday breaks in the cloud cover over the eastern half of the forecast area, which is expected to fuel developing afternoon convection across primarily Southeast PA based on the latest CAMs. Strong mid level wind/shear profiles, combined with EPS CAPES in the 500-1000J/kg range over the Lower Susq Valley, support the potential of severe weather Monday PM. The latest SPC Slight Risk area extends west into the Central Mtns, but HREF updraft helicity values target areas southeast of I-81 for the best potential of organized severe convection. Relatively modest instability, combined with strong forcing favoring linear rather than discrete convection, suggests damaging wind gusts are the main threat, with large hail/isolated tornadoes much less likely. The threat of severe weather should end around 00Z, as the cold front pushes southeast of the forecast area. Ensemble mean qpf suggests rainfall Monday will range from 0.05 to 0.25 inches over most of Central PA. However, instability and much higher PWATs southeast of KMDT should support more substantial rainfall in that area, with heavy downpours potentially leading to localized amounts in excess of 1.5 inches based on some HREF members. This would be beneficial rainfall in a region that has been very dry. FFG values indicate significant flooding is very unlikely. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=CTP&issuedby=CTP&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

One eye to the sky and safe today dudes. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html ...Northern Mid Atlantic... Although stronger low-level wind fields will tend to shift northeast of the region early today with the progression of the Canadian cyclone, deep-layer shear will remain sufficiently strong to support a risk for severe convection. It appears that low-level moistening and daytime heating will contribute to at least a narrow corridor of weak to moderate boundary-layer destabilization along the pre-frontal surface troughing by late this afternoon. This may provide the focus for increasing thunderstorm development, particularly as the instability axis is overtaken by the cold front by this evening. Isolated supercells are possible initially, posing a risk for severe hail, and at least some risk for a tornado, before locally damaging wind gusts become the more prominent potential severe hazard as convection increases in coverage.

I decided to delete my last post for @Itstrainingtime because it's not worth any more drama, and after reading it this morning I realized it panted a bad picture of Bubbler . I probably should have included that I don't feel he would do such a thing, although I was talking about some members and generalizing about the growing number of people that partake in the behavior I was speaking of, and not playing into it. I should have been clearer and more careful with my post. It also was just an attempt to convince the Trainer to stay and stop beating himself up for no good reason, but definitely would have pissed a a lot of people off Lol. If you did read that @Bubbler86 I'm very sorry for lumping you into that.

In this case I say it's evolution.

The spc has dropped all 5% probabilities for Tuesday, but Wednesday looks potentially historic. The obvious lack of movement answers some of my questions for yesterday, although the orientation and close proximity of the trailing portion of the front keeps severe possibilities alive in my mind. My other question is can we score some Tail end Charlie as the lp moves across Canada ? Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ON D4/WED... ..DISCUSSION... Medium-range models appear to be in good agreement with overall evolution of the synoptic-scale pattern into the Day 7 (Saturday April 5) time period, when divergence in solutions increases. Earlier in the period however, model consistency lends fairly highbconfidence that a widespread/potentially substantial outbreak of severe weather will evolve Wednesday/Day 4, from Lower Michigan and the Ohio Valley, southwestward across the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valleys, and into eastern portions of Texas and Oklahoma. Convection will likely be ongoing or developing early in the day, over western portions of the risk area -- from Wisconsin southwestward to Oklahoma/North Texas. As an upper low shifts northeastward across the northern Plains toward the upper Mississippi Valley through the day, and the cold front crosses Iowa/Missouri/eastern Oklahoma, steep lapse rates atop a moist/diurnally heating warm sector will support widespread convective development. With ascent along the front somewhat modest as stronger large-scale ascent focuses northward into the western Upper Great Lakes and into Ontario, storm mode may tend toward isolated storms, as opposed to more linear development. This, combined with flow that is forecast to weakly veer but dramatically strengthen with height, suggests a primarily supercell storm mode. In additional to very large hail (particularly with southward extent), widespread damaging winds and several tornadoes are expected, some possibly significant. Risk is expected to continue well into the evening and likely overnight, shifting slowly eastward across the Midwest and mid/lower Mississippi Valley through the end of the period. Day 5/Thursday, trailing portions of the cold front should become aligned east-northeast to west-southwest across the Ohio and mid Mississippi Valleys and into the southern Plains, as the upper system shifts quickly across eastern Canada. While weak short-wave ridging will evolve atop the surface frontal zone in the wake of the departing system, daytime heating of a very moist boundary layer along and south of the front combined with strong flow aloft will support reinvigorated convection through the afternoon and evening hours, along with attendant severe-weather risk.

Monday https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Sunday https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Lol ,I thought someone might take the bait.

Normally, I wouldn't be so impressed by this, but I have never seen such a small event seem so massive. I coin this setup as meteorological ejectulation. You kids can tell your professors you saw it here first.

Day 5 sounds extremely volatile, but I may be misunderstanding the explanation and evolution of Day 6 from the spc and noaa. Maybe someone with more experience and access could weigh in ? I'm assuming breaking into the warm sector on a system that could potentially cause a severe weather outbreak the day before is usually a good indicator, but maybe that's not always the case ?

The latest forecast discussion has new details on both potential systems. Strong mid level wind/shear profiles also support the potential of severe weather Monday PM. A Slight Risk has been issued for all of Central Pa with the main threat being damaging wind gusts. Cloud cover is likely to hold temps down somewhat Monday, but many EPS members still generate CAPE values in the 200-800J/kg range, which could be sufficient for severe weather given the expected wind fields. Latest ensemble plumes indicate most likely rainfall Monday of around a half inch, which would be beneficial given recent dryness across Eastern Pennsylvania. After the cold frontal passage, a low PWAT airmass and high pressure will begin building into the region, resulting in fair and relatively cool weather Tuesday into early Wednesday. Medium range guidance all tracks another surface low west of PA through the Grt Lks next Thursday. Rain along the attendant warm front could spread into Central PA by Wed PM, with a chance of showers accompanying the trailing cold front Thursday. A cold air damming scenario ahead of the approaching warm front with surface high east of New England supports undercutting NBM maxtemps slightly Wed. However, much milder conditions are likely Thursday, with the region potentially breaking into the warm sector south of the surface low. A trailing cold front is currently progged to stall out just south of PA next Friday. A potential wave on the front could result in lingering rain, especially over Southern PA.

Wow. !!! Although not highlighted, both the spc and noaa forcast discussion mention another possible round of severe weather that could affect central PA. Thursday.

If you're referring to my post I just forgot to address it. Its just a scwobble among two guy know one likes. Apparently we are both somewhat mentaly handicapped . Probably nothing the nerotypical want to get involved with.

No worries. I won't be reading or responding to the tool bag an further.

Lol , @RuinWhat in God's geen earth makes you think I want ,or think it's going to fucking snow in the first place? I posted it because you're literally delusional and possibly the most annoying person to ever post here. It's pretty fucking obvious from my posts and others that most of us have moved on and have been in gardening and severe weather mode for over a month I personally haven't posted about winter in over 5 weeks . I have told you post after post that I agree with you and that I too don't buy into winter storm forcast either, but here you are again lectureing Flatheadsicknes about the insufficiency of the modles. The fact that you think I'm a modle guy just proves how lost you are. There's only one guy in this thread that's still on the snow train and that's his God given right. If it's bothering you that much than I do advise you change, or seek help all jokes aside.

Discussion Day 4-8 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0409 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 311200Z - 051200Z CORRECTED GRAPHIC ...DISCUSSION... Widespread storms and at least some attendant severe risk will be ongoing at the start of the Day 4 period (Monday March 31) -- with the band of convection likely extending along the west slopes of the Appalachians initially. Diurnal destabilization along and east of the mountains remains a question, particularly with northward extent into the Northeast, and thus the northern periphery of the risk area remains in question -- in what will likely be a very low CAPE/high shear environment -- suggestive of damaging gusts being the primary concern over northern portions of the area. Farther south, greater CAPE is expected, particularly from the Carolinas into the central Gulf Coast states. Here, an all-hazards risk is forecast to continue from the Day 3 period into Day 4. Storms/severe risk will shift eastward with time, crossing the East Coast states through the afternoon and evening, before clearing the coast overnight.