Yardstickgozinya

The spc dropped all 5% probabilities they previously had on Saturday for the west sout central but still have a large area highlighted for sunday. At this point, the spc keeps any severe well south of us on Monday as an SLP potentially passes just north or over Pa. mentioned in Noaa's latest forcast discussion.

Exactly my point. You're counting up a loss/win for a forecast that never existed outside of social media. I don't buy into most of this winter stuff either, but I at least have some grasp on how this all works. Can you tell me who how and with what that 8-14 day forcast you posted was created? I thought you didn't buy into any forecast. You're a very complicated and complex individual.

I didn't realize there was a projected winter storm in the forcast. No mention of this on any forcast I can find. What agency did you here this from ?

Nope On Monday and Tuesday, the mid-level trough is forecast to move into the eastern U.S., as a cold front advances southward to near the Gulf Coast. Although isolated storms could develop in the southern Gulf Coast states, limited large-scale ascent is expected to be problematic concerning an organized severe threat.

The frogs approve another round.

Could this be another system we maybe need to monitor as it heads east Monday or Tuesday ? There is nothing highlighted for day 8 yet but the spc discussion peeked my interest. On Monday, the trough is forecast to move eastward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, as a cold front advances quickly toward the Atlantic Seaboard. Thunderstorms with an isolated severe threat willbe possible along and near the front during the afternoon, but predictability is low concerning the timing of the front, and its associated trough.

Day 7

We are not the only ones enjoying this wet and stormy Sunday. This fellow found himself a thick girl but she's playing hard to get. All eggs get safely relocated to the pond down the street teaming with other wood frogs and various other tadpoles and eggs.

Severe Thunderstorm Warning Severe Thunderstorm Warning PAC071-133-170215- /O.NEW.KCTP.SV.W.0010.250317T0132Z-250317T0215Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service State College PA 932 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025 The National Weather Service in State College PA has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Lancaster County in south central Pennsylvania... Southern York County in south central Pennsylvania... * Until 1015 PM EDT. * At 931 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Spring Grove, moving northeast at 70 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and nickel size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. * Locations impacted include... Buck, York Airport, Stonybrook-Wilshire, Red Lion, Millersville University, Reinholds, Cross Roads, Loganville, New Holland, East York, Blue Ball, and Georgetown. This includes the following Interstates... The Pennsylvania Turnpike from mile markers 268 to 294. Interstate 83 from mile markers 0 to 23. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Stay inside a well built structure and keep away from windows. && LAT...LON 3988 7697 4025 7638 4025 7631 4031 7615 4013 7589 4010 7594 4004 7594 3996 7599 3972 7664 3972 7693 TIME...MOT...LOC 0131Z 234DEG 62KT 3986 7684 HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH $$ KF Special Weather Statement Special Weather Statement National Weather Service State College PA 916 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025 PAZ064-065-170145- York PA-Adams PA- 916 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN ADAMS AND SOUTHERN YORK COUNTIES THROUGH 945 PM EDT... At 916 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over Taneytown, moving northeast at 70 mph. HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Locations impacted include... Dallastown, Hanover, North York, Mount Wolf, West York, York, East Prospect, Windsor, York Airport, Spring Grove, Stonybrook-Wilshire, Parkville, Red Lion, Glenville, Pennville, Loganville, New Salem, Glen Rock, East York, and Yorklyn. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building. &

Pretty amazing they let it outrun it's box.

There's another very intense cell crossing the MD line into York co. atm. Looks like super cell structure to me.. I apologize for the edits I hid it right the first time .

these line segments breaking into some arking cells is interesting and something to keep an eye on especially in eastern cpa.

@Jns2183We got a trainer right were the sun don't shine.

Good call . Maybe spring needs the optimism only the Blizz can provide.

I ment signature not structure. It also had a nice hail core as it crossed the MD line.

The cluster of cells over us now briefly had super cell structure as it crossed are Md line.

I tried to pull up the soundings for BWI because I believe that's the closest available to both of us, but unfortunately, the only soundings that were available atm where Norman Ok. No matter what station I selected.

Take it with a grain of salt, but the Hrrr has the idea of bringing a line of storms into wcpa around 4:00pm and what looks to be a more discreet cellular storm into southern York Lancaster co.

The fog and mist dissipated just before sunrise but it's still slightly damp and cloudy here.

I was thinking classic spring with the fog and mist. That may not be the case where your at. It's still a awesome morning either way . Many birds are back and the peepers are in full chorus.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

I don't think I have ever seen a vort max so evident on traditional radar before the fetch.

Sunday SPC AC 140729 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA TO SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with large hail, severe gusts and possibly a few tornadoes, are expected on Sunday across parts of the Atlantic Coastal States. ...Atlantic Coastal States... A mid-level trough will move eastward across the mid Mississippi Valley and western Great Lakes on Sunday, as an associated mid-level jet translates eastward into the southern and central Appalachians.Ahead of this feature, a south-to-north corridor of low-level moisture will be in place early in the day in the lee of the Appalachians, from Georgia north-northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. Surface dewpoints along this corridor should be mostly in the 60s F. Along the western edge of this moist airmass, thunderstorms appear likely to be ongoing at the start of the period. The storms are forecast to move eastward from the higher terrain of the Appalachians into the lower elevations during the day. Ahead of the storms, some destabilization is forecast. ECMWF forecast soundings near the moist axis suggest that MLCAPE will peak in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range Sunday afternoon. In addition to the instability, strong deep-layer shear is forecast across most of the region due to the presence of the mid-level jet. As this feature moves to the east of the spine of the Appalachians, deep-layer shear is forecast to gradually increase. This will be favorable for a severe threat, associated with the stronger multicell line segments and/or rotating storms. Wind damage will be most favored along the leading edge of the faster-moving lines. Cells that remain discrete, and move into areas where the combination of instability and deep-layer shear is locally maximized, could become supercellular. Supercells will likely have potential for severe gusts and isolated large hail. An isolated tornado threat will also be possible, with the greatest tornado threat concentrated along and near the low-level jet during the afternoon, from the Carolinas into Virginia. Further north into the Hudson Valley, severe storms will also be possible. However, forecast instability in the Hudson Valley is less, suggesting the severe threat should remain marginal and more solated. ..Broyles.. 03/14/2025

Saturday https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html