Yardstickgozinya

Today https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

A large-scale upper trough near the MS Valley Sunday morning will develop east to the Appalachians by early Monday. Strong deep-layer south/southwesterly flow on the eastern side of the upper trough will overspread much of the eastern U.S. Convection will likely be ongoing Sunday morning from the Upper OH Valley into GA and northern FL. This activity will move into a moist airmass, characterized by 60s F dewpoints from north FL toward the Chesapeake Bay vicinity (50s F dewpoints further north into PA/NJ). Instability will be greatest where deeper boundary layer moisture is forecast, but given intense deep-layer flow, organized convection is expected with even very modest instability. While linear convection producing damaging gusts will be the main hazard for much of the region, tornado potential will exist where sufficient boundary layer moisture exists, most likely from the Carolinas southward.

SPC AC 130729 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MS/AL... ...SUMMARY... A severe weather outbreak is expected on Saturday from the central Gulf coast states/Deep South into the Ohio Valley. Significant tornadoes (focused across the South), swaths of damaging gusts, and hail are expected. ...Synopsis... An upper cyclone over the Upper Midwest will lift northeast into Ontario through Saturday evening. Meanwhile, a large-scale upper trough over the Plains will eject east toward the MS Valley. Strong southwesterly mid/upper flow (with a 500 mb jet streak near 100 kt)will overspread the Lower MS Valley/Mid-South vicinity by 00z, and continue east/northeast overnight into the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians. An intense south/southwesterly low level jet greater than 60 kt is forecast to overspread the central Gulf coast/DeepSouth into the TN/OH Valley during the late afternoon and nighttime hours. Rich Gulf moisture with dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s is expected to be focused over LA/MS/AL and the FL Panhandle, and possibly as far north as Middle TN and far western GA. 50s to low 60s F dewpoints will extend north into the Ohio Valley. This should support a widespread risk for severe storms across much of the central into the southeastern U.S. Saturday into early Sunday. ...Deep South/TN Valley vicinity... Forecast guidance has generally trended toward less widespread precipitation coverage Saturday morning as stronger height falls are not expected until late morning/early afternoon as the Plains trough ejects and a surface low begins to develop over the Mid-South. Persistent strong southerly low-level flow will allow for a moisture-rich boundary layer that should remain relatively pristine across southeast LA into southern/central MS/AL before convection develops by midday. Forecast soundings show cooling aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates atop this moist boundary layer, leading to MLCAPE values perhaps approaching 2000 J/kg (decreasing with northward extent in Middle TN). Vertically veering wind profiles with strong anvil-level divergence amid moderate instability should support robust updrafts and intense supercells.Significant tornadoes, damaging gusts and large hail will be possible through the afternoon and spreading into AL during the evening/nighttime hours. Additional convection is expected to develop along an eastward-advancing cold front during the afternoon and into the overnight. An organized line of storms will pose a risk for damaging wind swaths and tornadoes across northern MS/AL into TN, eastward into GA and the western Carolinas overnight. ...Ohio Valley... Very strong deep-layer flow will be in place across the Ohio Valley on Saturday with some convection possibly ongoing from southeast Lower MI into western/central KY. The extent of severe potential is uncertain and dependent on how much precipitation occurs early in the forecast period. Too much convection early in the day could largely limit destabilization and temper the overall risk. However, if less convective contamination occurs, greater destabilization could occur ahead of a deepening surface low lifting northeast from the Mid-South to OH during the evening. Given the strength of deep-layer flow at least some risk of strong/damaging gusts within bands of thunderstorms should occur through Saturday night. ..Leitman.. 03/13/2025

SPC AC 130600 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN MISSOURI...FAR SOUTHEAST IOWA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...FAR WESTERN KENTUCKY...FAR NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe storms is expected across much of the Mississippi Valley, eastward to the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys late Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. Widespread damaging winds (some greater than 65 kt), several tornadoes (some strong),and large hail will all be possible. ...Synopsis... An intense cyclone will develop from the central Plains to the Upper Midwest on Friday. As this system rapidly deepens, an intense jet streak (100+ kt at 500 mb) will overspread the Ozarks and Mid-MS Valley. Meanwhile, a large area covering much of the MS Valleyvicinity will see 850-700 mb southwesterly flow around 65-80 kt.Southerly low-level flow will transport mid 50s dewpoints as far north as IA/northern IL (decreasing with northward extent across the Upper Midwest). Richer boundary layer moisture (60s F dewpoints) will be confined to the Lower MS Valley and Deep South/TN Valley,though near-60 F dewpoints may reach the MS/OH River confluence.Rapidly developing convection is expected to develop by late afternoon from near a surface low over eastern NE and arcing east/southeast along a dryline into the Ozarks. Convection will develop northeast across the Mid-MS valley, with additional storms develop with southward extent into the Mid-South and TN Valley during the nighttime hours. ...Mid/Upper Mississippi Valley to the Lower OH/TN Valleys... Cold temperatures aloft near the main upper low will support steep midlevel lapse rates. While boundary moisture will be modest, MLCAPE up to 1000-1500 J/kg is possible. This will support rapid storm development amid intense deep-layer shear. Heating ahead of the dryline also will support some boundary layer mixing and steepening of low-level lapse rates. As a result, a rapidly developing QLCS is expected. Convection will shift east/northeast into the nighttime hours. Given fast storm motion and the intensity of deep-layer flow,swaths of significant wind gusts (greater than 65 kt) are anticipated over a large part of the Mid-MS Valley. A gradual weakening of convection is expected after midnight with north and east extent. With southward extent from parts of eastern MO/western IL into theMid-South, some potential for a mix of linear convection and supercells appears possible. Vertical shear will support tornadoes within linear convection. The environment will especially be favorable for strong tornadoes with any supercells that develop. This activity may develop a little later than initial convection further north, with much of the threat being after dark from east-central MO/west-central IL southward to western TN. Given the intensity of maximum gusts expected, and widespread coverage of damaging gusts, a Moderate risk (level 4 of 5) has been included for portions of the Mid-MS Valley vicinity. ...MS/AL/TN Overnight... Persistent southerly low-level flow will bring mid to possibly upper 60s F dewpoints northward into the TN Valley overnight. Neutral to modest height falls are expected and a persistent, strong low-level jet will overspread the region. Forecast soundings indicate very favorable thermodynamic and kinematic profiles, which would support intense supercells. Forcing mechanisms will be somewhat modest over the region, which may limit convective coverage, and a somewhat more conditional risk. However, any storms that develop within this environment overnight will pose a risk for strong tornadoes, large hail and damaging gusts. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity... The severe risk will become more marginal into MN/WI/MI. Strong deep layer flow will overspread the region and any convection will pose a risk of strong gusts. An additional risk for hail also will exist,especially with any elevated convection near the warm front overnight.

Still not many details for Sunday but the spc has expanded the slight risk coverage nort and a slight tick west in PA.

Point being they initially mentioned the Mid-Atlantic 8 days out.

Unfortunately there's alot of mention of nocturnal storms and tornadoes for Friday and Saturdays possible outbreak.

I posted a spc quick discussion about this two days ago . Spc has not released many details yet in their discussion for sunday but did initially mention that training precipitation could be a limiting factor for severe weather in the east on Sunday.

..Day 8/Sun - Mid-Atlantic vicinity... An upper trough will continue to shift east across the eastern U.S. on Sunday. While strong deep-layer flow will overspread the region in conjunction with a moist boundary-layer ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front, it is uncertain how much destabilization will be able to occur. Trends will be monitored for possible severe probabilities in the coming days, but current predictability is low.

Day 6 sounds like it has potential to be pretty big day.

I'm surprised. To me it looks like a storm snapshot projected directly through your brain out your eyes and onto my screen.

Prayers my man. May the Lord give you and your loved ones comfort and strength through this unexpected season of your lives. I've noticed you're a firey guy and a fighter. Keep it up !!! May snow and good health be in your very near future.

There's actually a strong signal for a Dec 16 . There already talikg 18 to 24" . Its only 6808 hours out .

I'm good

No of course not. Relax ! I know it's very tough for you guys seeing that you literally have only kept or semi excepted one posting member into your tribe since 2011. Let's not do this now Seriously !!!

I've been trying to fill some void until your buddies come back, but my new stuff doesn't win over hearts like the old days. Maybe if I post nude selfies of myself again, that will liven this place up. I think you'll be pleased that my tits have doubled in size since Covid, but be warned my chins look like a Foreskin sandwich.

Well, I'll be dipped in shit. Long time no talk lol. I don't doubt that. Maybe it's a directional/ geographic thing . Sometimes, I'm sheltered from the worst here it seems, but not tonight/last night. That's why I made sure to say where I'm at in my post. I had a few minutes of very heavy sustained gusts here earlier, but so far, nothing else quite like that. I also didn't meen to down play the last event. I feel like someone took it that way, but all I said was the strong wind had not gotten to my area yet. Anyways, no biggie. I also never doubt @Jns2183 observations but I definitely wasn't experiencing what he was reporting last event, and he is probably only 3 to 5 miles from me the way the crow flies depending on where he's at in New Cumberland. Stay safe out there today.

I didn't get anything like this where I'm at the last few wind events. Even the more hyped wind events haven't delivered like this one is atm.

The wind I'm experiencing outside atm is the real deal .

I did a lot of deep thinking today, and I think I figured out the scientific explanation why the forum is such a shit storm. We need to remember that no matter what side of the political aisle you're on politics really are nothing but a bunch of hot air weakly capped under forum rules . Then you have guys like me that are super fucking high all the time making really cold posts. Add in a bunch of one-sided, politicial spin to the forum atmosphere, and the next thing you know, people are missing all over the God damn place, and dudes are found tossed into other threads.

The one thing I think we all can agree on is who has the biggest fork around around here.

This channel has awesome high resolution simulations and advanced information on supercells and tornadoes. This video is older but one of his best. Highly recommend watch for storm lovers amateur or pro.

I'm sorry @VoyagerI had no idea you were in Tamaqua. I should have checked first. That's a long way from New Cumberland, lol. I did mention in a comment that the forecast was for my area, so I hope you caught that. The hrrr actually had that second wave timed out pretty good, although I didn't. It's the first time I have ever used the hrrr real time to help make my forcast. It seemed a little progressive to me yesterday comparing it with the radar, so instead of moving my idea of timeing back for the second round I got confused and moved it up . Anyways, it was actually a lot of fun for me. Thanks for being a good sport .

I'm out for a walk with Ekho atm. Lightning of to my west, Spring peepers are calling ,bats are actively feeding and night crawlers have surfaced in mass tonight.