Yardstickgozinya

True, hook just showed up, it's starting to turn right. It appears the warining box takes the right turn into account.

My boy said he's been crushing the smallies today. He's back on dad's favorite hole on the Conawago West stealing my fish. Lol

No updates from the SPC yet this morning. Its not uncommon for the NWS or SPC to run late on their updates recently ,and sometimes not at all.. I wonder if they're waiting on sounding data updates.

-- Highlight Changed Discussion -- 420 FXUS61 KCTP 110944 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 544 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Minor changes to SPC outlook limited to expanding the tornado and wind threat eastward into the Lower Susquehanna Valley, but degree of instability remains uncertain. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms expected today, starting with nonsevere morning convection. Some storms this afternoon and evening may be severe with damaging winds along with the possibility of a few tornadoes if enough instability is realized. 2) Settling into a cooler and windy pattern for the end of the week into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms expected today, starting with nonsevere morning convection. Some storms this afternoon and evening may be severe with damaging winds along with the possibility of a few tornadoes if enough instability is realized. A cold front will sweep through tonight into Thursday, as an upper trough approaches the region. Ahead of the front, numerous showers and some thunderstorms are anticipated today and this evening. The SPC Day 1 Slight Risk area continues to include practically all of central PA with minor changes limited to expanding the tornado and wind threat eastward into the Lower Susquehanna Valley. The main uncertainty with respect to the severe threat continues to be instability with recent HREF model guidance indicating considerable cloudiness across much of the area with multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms limiting insolation. Probabilities of SBCAPE exceeding 500 J/kg in the most recent HREF top out in the 40-70 pct range across southwestern and south central PA this afternoon and early evening. Generally less than a 40 pct chance north of I-80. That said, with winds of 40-50 kts in the lowest 3km of the atmosphere, it wouldn`t take much to bring some damaging winds down the ground. While damaging straight line winds will be the most common threat with today`s convection, the SPC D1 outlook also maintains CIG1 hatching over much of southern Pennsylvania, meaning the conditional probability of an EF2 tornado is greater than the climatological average. In other words, if tornadoes do develop across southern PA, they could be strong. This is supported by 250-300 m2/s2 effective SRH and LCLs near 1000 m this afternoon and early evening. KEY MESSAGE 2: Settling into a cooler and windy pattern for the end of the week into early next week. As the base of the trough and associated surface cold front cross PA, a sharp temperature drop in the wake of the cold front may result in any lingering postfrontal precip changing over to snow Wed night into Thu. Given the limited precip and warm ground, not expecting snow accumulation. NW winds will gust 30-40 kts behind the front early Thursday. Winds will get weaker as the day progresses on Thursday. The next system will be a potent Clipper moving across the Great Lakes on Friday. This will likely bring a band of rain and snow showers across mainly the north, but otherwise more of a wind producer than a precip maker. Wind gusts in the 40-50 kt range are possible Fri afternoon into Friday night as the pressure gradient tightens. Wind chills drop into the teens and 20s Friday night into early Saturday, a big change from the recent warm weather. Guidance favors a Great Lakes Cutter track for the next system Sunday into Monday. This would result in a corridor of warmer air pushing in ahead of the system, with highs rising back into the upper 40s and 50s. Much colder air and gusty winds push back in behind the cold front Monday night with chilly temps around through the middle of next week. Latest NBM guidance shows highs stuck in the 20s and 30s on Tuesday, some 15-20 degrees below average. && .AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conditions expected overnight as a potent frontal boundary inches toward the area but remains west. Visibilities may drop in BR at a few locations as the temperature / dewpoint spread is just a degree or two. Convection over Michigan and northern Indiana will generally move into New York state with showers possibly making it as far south as KBFD after sunrise. Elsewhere, conditions should remain dry into the early afternoon with increasing winds from the southwest. Pre-frontal line of storms looks to cross the state through the mid-afternoon through early evening from west to east. Expect LLWS in TSRA gusts. The actual front will cross the region toward the end of the forecast period with a brief period of heavy rain showers and a wind shift to the northwest. Outlook... Thu-Fri...Windy and colder. Scattered rain and snow showers, with restrictions possible. Sat...Remaining brisk, with restrictions in rain and snow showers most likely at KBFD and KJST. Sun...Rain and snow showers possible across the northern half of PA. Restrictions possible. && .CLIMATE... As of 530 PM, some new records. Altoona temperature estimated at 78 for the high today, old record of 72 degrees set in 1986. Bradford high of 70 broke the old record of 66 degrees set in 1986. Williamsport high of 77 broke the old record of 71 degrees set in 1977. Harrisburg high of 80 broke the old record of 79 degrees set in 2016. Earlier info. below. Near-record warmth is expected Tuesday into Wednesday across Pennsylvania with highs in the 60s & 70s and lows in the 50s. RECORD TEMPERATURES TUE 3/10 WED 3/11 MAX T MIN T MAX T Altoona 72 (1986) 49 (1990) 74 (2025) Bradford 66 (1986) 49 (2021) 66 (2025) Harrisburg 79 (2016) 49 (1955) 76 (2021) State College 76 (2016) 52 (2016) 72 (1986) Williamsport 71 (1977) 50 (1898) 75 (2025) && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Colbert KEY MESSAGES...Colbert DISCUSSION...Colbert/Beaty AVIATION...Tyburski CLIMATE...Banghoff

I just took a walk around my house this morning and I wasn't surprised to see the Wood frogs or the or the red back salamander, but I haven't see too many snakes out in March, if any ,especially at night. I generally only see snakes out at night late June July and August on the warmest of nights. I try to avoid as many as I could, but frogs and toads were popping under my tires as I drove by some wetlands last night. I absolutely love frogs and toads and will stop to save them when they're not everywhere. I always save large bullfrogs and turtles if I see them on the road .

I like the feeling being at the head of the action. It makes me feel like we won't get the shaft, but the south better be on there balls tomorrow.

Lol that didn't come out, right.But I got you.

Ah, okay, I use snapshots.

The hook that just crossed the northern Missouri Indiana border is worth going back and looking at.

I don't to basically post a double map, so I thought I'd add spc's discussion for tomorrow to your post. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Why did , your map chang? This isn't the one that you posted.

My Son and his budy from work had some luck the past two days on the Conawago West and the Susqy fishing from shore. I saw a few boats out today Lake Frederick Goldsborough area hitting in the mouths of the creeks.

Severe probabilities have been moving North and East with every update . https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html

Already expanded north and slightly east through the state.

I was hearing more strikes on AM Radio frequencys then the lightning detection network was picking up. I'm not speaking for home lightning detectors, I know nothing about them.

Heavy rain the here for the last eight minute.

Day 5 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/#

I don't care what paper says.I work off my own memory and experiences. Another pretty wild system considering a good chunk of the US has barely warmed up on the lower levels. I've seen this before, and it's my thinking we're on business end of a three year uptick in severe weather. The last two systems had no problem kicking off decent storms, in low level environments that you wouldn't normally expect to see them yet. The amount of lightning that some of the meager cells have been able to generate this spring in parts of the country this early is reminiscent of some great storm years.

The link is not working for me. There was several videos about the wittboy on YouTube

Torrential downpour at the moment

Lightning and thunder out here also

Latest discussion on today's freezing rain from nws. -- Highlight Changed Discussion 619 FXUS61 KCTP 030741 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 241 AM EST Tue Mar 3 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Minor adjustments to hourly temperatures today into tonight && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Light wintry mix with minor ice accumulation brings slippery road conditions and travel/school delays early today 2) Periods of much-needed rain expected from Wednesday through the first weekend of March; wet pattern favored into next week with above-normal rainfall likely 3) Significant springtime warming pattern ramps up from late week into the second week of March && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Light wintry mix with minor ice accumulation brings slippery road conditions and travel/school delays early today A low-level warm advection regime will sustain light wintry precip as it continues to spread from southwest to northeast across CPA this morning. Some sleet and/or light snow may fall at the onset or on the front-end of precipitation as -2 to -6C max wet bulb temps retreat to the northeast. Light/minor ice accumulation from freezing rain of generally 0.10 of an inch or less is likely across the bulk of Central PA with slightly higher amounts possible - particularly on the southwest Allegheny ridges. Temperatures warm above the freezing mark from southwest to northeast through the afternoon into tonight effectively transitioning ptypes to plain rain. Fog and low stratus may be expansive overnight with lingering areas of light rain and pockets of drizzle.

Freezing rain atm. It's definitely getting slick out. The winter weather advisory was a good call. Watch out for morons this morning,and stay safe .

Sleet and freezing rain started here at 3:36AM

This is not the full forecast discussion. I only posted discussion on Tuesday mornings mixed precipitation/ ice event. Highlight Changed Discussion -- 120 FXUS61 KCTP 020800 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 300 AM EST Mon Mar 2 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Posted winter weather advisory for freezing rain for almost all of the forecast/warning area for later tonight and Tuesday morning. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A light wintry mix with light freezing rain accumulations likely late Monday night into Tuesday morning. 2) Periods of rain with temperatures very much above normal Wed onward. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: A light wintry mix with light freezing rain accumulations expected later tonight into Tuesday morning. Over the past 24 hours, the model solutions have come into better alignment w.r.t. timing. The QPF and temperatures have been very consistent from run to run. P-type will be a varied mix at first, but the gradual warming aloft will turn the precip to liquid. The consistency has raised our confidence in a light glaze of ice occurring late tonight and Tuesday morning. We wondered whether it is a little early to post the advisory at this range (24-30hrs before start of the hazardous wx). But, the forecast has been highly consistent at painting measurable amounts of ZR over the entire CWA. WPC guidance, FRAM progs from HREF, and NBM forecasts all add together to make a high confidence forecast for a thin glaze of ice accretion in most places. We kept the goalposts wide on timing, that is, erring a little early on start of the ZR, and a little later than when the ZR should be done in each area. This should help our partners to be ready should it move in a little faster or end a little later. We didn`t want to call for too tight of a window. In all likelihood, the valley locations probably have more like a 3-6hr time period when ice may accrete before the temps warm enough to make it plain rain. But, the hills/ridgetops can stay sub-freezing longer into many events. For example, the 00Z NAM and GFS BUFKIT soundings both turn the precip type at UNV (1150ft MSL elevation) to plain rain at 17Z. At that time, though, the temp profile has the temps at 1000ft still sub- freezing. Our surrounding ridges are that high above the valley floor (1900-2400ft MSL). That may be due to a boundary layer of the cold air staying in place while the warmer air works down from above - and the valley sfc warms due to the sun. On the other hand, the fast (30-50KT) winds in the LLJet of the warm advection could mix/force the warm air down onto the ridgetops before or at the same time as the valleys gets warm. But, from personal observation, the scenario where the ridges stay colder-longer than the valley is just as common. The arrival time of the precip lends itself to keeping the temps colder-longer. As for the NW: The northwestern zones may also need an advisory eventually, but confidence is just a little lower there for a glaze to occur. The temps may warm just enough before precip starts to keep it all rain. Collaboration among the WFOs resulted in holding off on issuing for them (Warren and McKean) on this shift. NAM hints at the llvl moisture increasing before the higher clouds drop larger hydrometeors into it. Thus, there could be some freezing drizzle before the main push of mix arrives. This is another reason to start the advy a little earlier than most of the guidance brings the measurable precip in. The criteria for a winter weather advisory for freezing rain as the threat is: any. Even if it just the thinnest of glazes due to the hazard it presents to travel, even on foot.