Yardstickgozinya

First off, I wanna put in a little disclaimer and say that @mahantango#1 has absolutely nothing to do with my comments below I don't want readers to get the impression i'm directing my thoughts at him. At the end of the day it's pretty obvious to me that nobody knows exactly how this is going to play out. There's so much potential right now in either direction. It's situations like these that clearly exposures the forum's actual trolls. Now that said, i'm not saying that giving honest analysis the contradicts accumulating snowfall is trolling . It's obviously a lot more complex than that, but we have a whole bunch of guys here,taking advantage of that complexity, and it's situations like this that make those people stick out amongst the crowd.

Yeah, that's kinda strange. I believe your east of me and my p&c has 2 to 6 inches total . Nws has also been putting quite an emphasis on their lack of confidence and the possibility of extremely varying accumulations over short distance.

Oh, man, that's because you skip step 3 through 9. Lol If you put the word weather on the end, the twitter feed should be the first thing to pops up. https://x.com/muweather

Step one.Try putting an m into your search bar. Step two. Put a u into the search bar. Steps 3 through 9 are basically the same as step one and two . You want to put your letters in the right order to spell out the word weather. if you make a mistake, don't worry, it just has to be close. Step ten is a the real doozy. Next, you wanna press the enter button, but be warned, you will be amazed.

That ain't breaking my heart either.Just get it west, I ain't choosy.

I'm actually fine with where the storm's at. I would find it much more exciting to watch a tick west on radar real time. Even if we don't get many ticks west on on paper , from this point moving forward, let's not forget the storm itself can tick west, whether the models give it permission or not. That's exactly what 2016 did.

I saw you pull that comment @pasnownut. I was going to cheer you on. I believe in you ! i'm here to help you overachieve.

Likely a blend.

Foxyynew just gave me a solid, 1 to 3 .

Aye aye, Matey" She aint a Marlin, she aint a tuna. This bohemoth monster of of the sea thinks she'll make way of the fishes. This beast never seen the likes of such snow famished scurvy dogs . "Arr" drags pined down deeper than Captain Nemo and the Nautilus themselves.. Don't worry landlubbers , your favorite skally wag, is bringing her ashore

This mornings write up from Nws forcast discussion on this weekend’s winter potential. KEY MESSAGE 3: Reminder that it`s still winter with potential for accumulating snow Sunday followed by a brief cold spell with brisk winds Monday and Tuesday. Main chance for snow on Sunday would be more from the inverted trough, still a ways out to pinpoint location and amts of snow with such a feature. Upper level low dynamics might be the key for our area as well. Earlier discussion below. There remains a strong potential for a low pressure system off the Mid-Atlantic coast Sunday intensifying into a nor`easter by Monday. However, the track of the low remains uncertain with plenty of variability in the model guidance. The ECMWF and the UKMET remain farther south and offshore as it exits the coast, whereas the GFS is closest and has the greatest impacts to the Mid-Atlantic region. This is a low confidence forecast at this time with northern and southern stream phasing differences still to be resolved. It seems that even with a more suppressed and eastward track, the associated upper trough and inverted trough axis may be able to provide sufficient forcing/lift to produce a broad area of accumulating snow. Confidence in accumulating snowfall continues to increase, but significant details remain TBD as it relates to the potential for significant snowfall. Confidence is much higher in a reality check back to winter temperatures as a brisk northerly wind behind the departing nor`reaster directs a much colder Canadian airmass back into the region. Max temps on Monday and Tuesday will be 5 to 15 degrees below the historical average. The cold spell won`t last long with a moderating trend commencing through midweek as low level winds turn more southwesterly. Todays full discussion below https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=CTP&issuedby=CTP&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

@Jns2183 Yardstick short range regime sequencing . Thanks for that too by the way, It was a good listen.

I love seeing the volatility in the atmosphere in Pa. the last two nights. Makes me more hopeful maybe we can bust big .

Heavy rain here flash of lightning.

I could have the wrong person here, but I believe it was @anotherman that brought up the Megalopolitan Blizzard of 1983 last week. I'm certainly not saying that it will, but given what the gfs has shown at times and the slightly cooler column ,I feel that this one has more of a legitimate chance, then last week, to bust towards something like that. I could definitely live with that .

There hasn't been any lightning strikes detected for quite a while, but it looks like a lot of the sub is getting some decent rain atm.

There's still a pretty decent amount of convection and lightning for this hour, that looks like it will make it into West Central Pa. at the very least.

Yeah, I couldn't agree more.I bet he doesn't even live in Akron, or really even that nuts about snow.

Not so fast there Pal. I get where you fellas are coming from, but can assure you there's at least one instance where a blind and confused American defeats his foreign enemy.

I couldn't go the whole way back to the start of the convection, but I took a Snapshot of the storms at they're most impressive ,and two snapshots of the two main cells that affected north Northern Pa. last night.

I just went back and checked these storms out. It definitely was a impressive cluster all things considered. It started putting down lightning in Charlotte Michigan and didn't stop putting down consistent strokes until somewhere around State Gamelands, 114 in the Northern Allegheny Plateau.

Thanks buddy. I've been looking at the weather for a long time so i'm used to seeing disagreement, but something seems different this time. No one seems to be noticing or saying anything, so it must be an algorithmic thing on my end. It's like all of a sudden over the course of the last ten days i'm getting data from parallel universes. I've been keeping my eye on the weekend storm. I'm letting some food digest before I step on the roller coaster.

My understanding has been that the p v was to split and send down at least two cold lobes into central then the eastern US late this month, but the MJO would be somewhat muting, and delaying its effects here on the east coast. Was it a pile of rubbish i've been reading, or still being worked out?

I'm not disagreeing with you. Maybe my constant search for cold and snow has given me cold bias algorithms. Is there still two trains of thought on this or has there been some type of agreement. From what I'm gathering the Europeans don't seem to agree with this but everything i've read, is a few hours to a day old so maybe a lot has changed.

It moves like a tortoise.I like it. If it does the old loopy loop or retrogrades on the next panel, I'll take.