Yardstickgozinya

We have been very lucky to have had several systems time up well with strong solar activity to help drive lightning activity going back to late last summer. unfortunately, activity is quite inadequate to be much of a factor today. I'm not saying we won't see lightning today because it's far from the only parameter.

This post includes both the Spc and Noaa forcast for today. They have been trimmed down only to include localized convective and precipitation details to reduce clutter. SPC AC 050548 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible Wednesday across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur across parts of Florida and east Georgia, and also from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...Synopsis... An intense upper trough, initially over the MS Valley this morning, and characterized by a 500 mb jet streak of 90+ kt, will pivot east across the eastern U.S. through the period. Through the morning and early afternoon hours, a southerly low level jet greater than 60 kt will overspread the Southeast coastal vicinity into the Mid-Atlantic and lower Great Lakes regions. At the surface, strong warm advection will transport 60s F dewpoints northward ahead of an eastward-progressing cold front from FL into southeast GA and as far north as southeast VA. Moisture will become more modest with northward extent into eastern OH/PA/western NY. The net result will be a modestly unstable airmass in the presence of intense deep-layer flow supporting a large area of strong to severe/damaging wind potential. Tornado potential also is possible, with greater potential expected from the Carolinas into southeast VA where low-level moisture will be greater. .SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... A deep surface low tracking west of Pennsylvania into the Great Lakes will set up an active period of weather on Wednesday, with several threats to speak about. An enhanced (55-60kt) LLJ and surging PWATs should result in a band of moderate to heavy rain tracking east across the area between 12Z-21Z Wed. CAMs support QPF in excess of one inch across portions of the Endless Mountains and northern tier. After this initial slug of rainfall, a second round of convection is likely to accompany an arriving cold/occluded front during the late afternoon and evening hours. Latest SPC outlook paints most of Central and Southern PA within a slight risk of severe weather late Wed afternoon and evening. Instability in recent model guidance remains somewhat limited (less than 500 J/kg) but still several hundred J/kg in concert with strong shear justifies the SLGT risk of damaging wind gusts with a broken line of convection along the front. Although the main threat remains locally damaging wind gusts, there will be favorable shear parameters for large hail (across the southwest part of the forecast area. The aforementioned rainfall, coupled with remaining snow on the ground across the northern tier will bring about rises on streams. At this time, rainfall alone is not expected to bring about any flooding concerns, but the combination of snow melt and the wildcard of potential ice jams means there is an elevated risk of flooding Wednesday afternoon and evening over the N Mtns. Recent MARFC SWE across the N Mtns is in the 0.25 to 0.50 inch range.

This man allows hate crimes on a website he owns and operates called American Weather Forums

Make note that this mornings forecast discussion must have been completed before the spc expanded the sligh risk north. I also trimmed down both the Spc and Noaa forcast to only include localized convective and precipitation details to reduce clutter. A deep surface low is progged to track west of PA into the GrtLks by late Tuesday night and Wednesday. Ahead of this system,a 50-60kt southerly low level jet and associated plume of Gulf moisture is progged to sweep across PA. A ribbon of +3-4SD pwats, combined with strong upper level diffluence ahead of the upper trough, should support a band of moderate to heavy rain the first half of Wednesday, followed by a round of PM convection along the trailing cold/occluded front. Elevated instability and strong large scale forcing in the model guidance supports a chance of tsra across the entire area Wed PM. While the focus for possible severe weather is over the southern tier of the state, a MRGL outlook covers much of central PA with a sliver of SLGT extending into far southern Lancaster and York Counties where proximity to the warm sector and where more appreciable instability is possible along and south of potential triple point low track. EPS plumes still suggestive of rainfall totals by late Wed in the 0.75 and 1 inch range over the bulk of Central PA, with orographic enhancement leading to totals close to 1.5 inches over the higher ridgetops of Sullivan/Schuylkill Counties. This amount of rain by itself should not cause flooding issues based on latest flash flood/headwater guidance from the RFC. However, will have to watch for possible localized ice jam issues over the N Mtn, and contribution for SWE locked up in the ice/snow pack over the North Central Mountains, which NOHRSC shows is locally 1-2"+ and sfc dewpoints in the upper 40s would promote appreciable melting.

SPC AC 040614 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...Allegheny Plateau/Mid Atlantic... Early period convective precipitation may contribute to boundary-layer moistening, prior to the onset of increasing insolation beneath a dry slot overspreading the region during the day. Followed by the onset of stronger cooling aloft, model forecast soundings indicate the development of thermodynamic profiles characterized by modest conditional and convective instability, in the presence of strong deep-layer shear. Guidance has been varied concerning the location and extent of scattered pre-frontal thunderstorm development within this regime, but the environment is likely to become at least marginally conducive to scattered organized convection, including supercells@Itstrainingtime. ..Kerr.. 03/04/2025

I hope you're ok out there @Bubbler86. I was thinking of you today as the next system comes into the range of the hrrr.

@Blizzard of 93 Mapfap is not the same without a hand from you .

Lol ok so I did read about the chance for heavy rain but I guess i never copied it or it just got added. I was super stoned and confused from the wake and bake lol. A deep surface low is progged to track west of PA into the Grt Lks Wednesday. Ahead of this system, a 50-60kt southerly low level jet and associated plume of Gulf moisture is progged to sweep across PA. A ribbon of +3-4SD pwats, combined with strong upper level diffluence ahead of the upper trough, should support a band of moderate to heavy rain the first half of Wednesday, followed by a round of PM convection along the trailing cold/occluded front. Elevated instability and strong large scale forcing in the model guidance supports a chance of PM tsra across the entire area Wed. However, the focus for possible severe weather is over the southern tier of the state, where more appreciable instability is possible ahead of a weak triple-point low. Current EPS plumes suggest rainfall totals by late Wed are likely to range between 0.75 and 1 inch over the bulk of Central PA, with orographic enhancement leading to totals close to 1.5 inches over the higher ridgetops of Sullivan/Schuylkill Counties. This amount of rain by itself should not cause flooding issues based on latest flash flood/headwater guidance from the RFC. However, will have to watch for possible localized ice jam issues over the N Mtns.

Slight risk touches the southe east part of our board Wednesday.

I apologize. I could swear I read something about high qpf somewhere. There is no mention of good rain in the forcast discussion atp.

SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A milder return southwest flow on the backside of departing high pressure begins Monday. Model RH time sections support abundant sunshine, which should help temps recover to near seasonal averages by Monday afternoon. A warm front lifting through the E Grt Lks is likely to spread increasing cloudiness into the region Monday night into Tuesday, with a slight chance of a shower over the NW Mtns. A strengthening southerly flow will advect increasingly mild air into Central PA with GEFS 2m temp anomalies supportive of high temps several degrees above seasonal normals by Tuesday afternoon. A sprawling area of slow moving low pressure will bring showers to the region late Tuesday night and Wednesday, with general thunder in the warm sector a possibility over our southern tier as cold front crosses the area. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... 10 PM Update...Main game is still Wed-Wed night as a mature cyclone moves through. Holding onto schc/chc TS for the srn half or so of the CWA Wed aftn/eve. Post-frontal winds should be close to advy for many, esp the higher elevations on Thurs. We`ll also continue to keep the max temps colder than NBM guidance on Thurs as wrn locations may have temps drop slightly thru the day. Prev... Overall still looking at a deep storm system lifting northeast from the Great Plains into the Great Lakes on Wednesday. This system will bring mild temperatures, gusty winds, and widespread showers to the area on Wednesday. Since the system is lifting northward, this will likely limit the adverse weather. However, even with the system pulling northward, timing of the cold front, strong dynamics, and time of day, will support some chance of thunder. Have a slight chance of thunder late in the day on Wed. Colder temperatures return behind this departing system, into the later part of the week. A cold front next weekend could bring some light precipitation to the area late week, but not expecting any big systems at this point.

SPC AC 030550 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... One or two organized lines or clusters of thunderstorms, and perhaps a few supercells, will pose a risk for damaging wind gusts, a few tornadoes and hail, primarily across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast, Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Discussion... Model output remains varied concerning sub-synoptic developments into and through this period. However, better consensus is evident among the various model ensemble output concerning the large-scale pattern evolution across the eastern Pacific into North America. Within this regime, a significant upper trough, now inland of the Pacific coast, is forecast to progress east of the Great Plains through Mississippi Valley Tuesday through Tuesday night, accompanied by continuing strong cyclogenesis. Models generally indicate that the center of the evolving broad and deep surface cyclone will migrate from western Kansas through northern Illinois during this period. In the wake of the cyclone, a substantive cold front is forecast to surge southeastward across the southern Great Plains into northwestern Gulf coast and lower Mississippi Valley by 12Z Wednesday. This may be preceded by a more modest Pacific cold front across the southern Great Plains at the outset of the period, and potentially cool/dry air across/east of the lower Mississippi Valley, associated with a surface ridge shifting off the Atlantic Seaboard, in the wake of de-amplifying large-scale mid/upper troughing. A southerly return flow off a modifying boundary-layer over the western Gulf Basin is likely to be ongoing early Tuesday across eastern Texas toward the lower Missouri Valley, before shifting eastward across and east of the lower Mississippi Valley. In response to the evolution and progression of the cyclone, models suggest that better low-level moisture return from the Gulf will probably become cut off across the eastern Gulf Coast region by late Tuesday night. Across and northeast of a low-level baroclinic zone, initially extending across the Ark-La-Tex vicinity southeastward through southern portions of the lower Mississippi Valley, the Gulf moisture return will initially become elevated above a residual cool/stable surface-based layer. However, the NAM and Rapid Refresh output still suggest that this boundary will become more diffuse while developing eastward through the day. Regardless, most model output remains suggestive that elevated and/or closer to surface-based destabilization, and large-scale ascent associated with the cyclone, will become sufficient to support extensive convective development across the interior U.S. Tuesday through Tuesday night, and a fairly broad area with at least a conditional risk for severe storms. ...Lower Mississippi Valley into Southeast... The remnant, though becoming increasingly diffuse, baroclinic zone across the lower Mississippi Valley, might become the primary initial focus for intense thunderstorm development during this period. As the environment destabilizes more rapidly to the southwest of this boundary, and low-level warm advection along it contributes to large-scale ascent accompanying a short wave perturbation overspreading the lower Mississippi Valley, conditions may become conducive to the evolution of an organizing storm cluster. This may be preceded by a couple of discrete supercells. Given the strength of the deep-layer mean wind fields, which may include a belt of south-southwesterly flow in the 850-500 mb layer on the order of 60-100 kt overspreading Louisiana and Mississippi during the day, there appears at least conditional potential for supercells capable of producing strong tornadoes. With the strongest wind fields generally forecast in the inflow layer of the convective development, the extent of the damaging wind potential remains more unclear, particularly with any evolving cluster developing along/above a maturing cold pool Much will also depend on the extent to which near-surface thermodynamic profiles are able to destabilize in advance of the large-scale forcing. Both the latest Rapid Refresh and NAM forecast soundings suggest this may be an issue, and potential mitigating factor with regard to the severe wind and tornado potential, particularly overnight east of the lower Mississippi Valley into the eastern Gulf Coast states. ..Kerr.. 03/03/2025 CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z CURRENT UTC TIME: 0713Z (2:13AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

Not a lot of change since yesterday in coverage or severe probabilities in the south for tuesdays event . NOAA does mention the chance for some good rain and perhaps some thunder for our area in the forcast discussion.

I apologize @SnowPlowGuy88I only reported your post because it seems suspicious. Nothing personal just precautionary.

I apologize but this is quite random. Has @SnowPlowGuy88account been compromised?

Seeing that most of the top posters are on a break atm I see no need to comply with there silly rules at this point. Flatheadsickness Mode Activated.

What a year. Very sad and destructive year. But absolutely fascinating nonetheless.

I agree. The entertainment value of Julie C's shows are most enjoyable In private.

Well, if you watched enough, Wagon Train and Bonanza you'd be cultured enough to understand. Dude I'm just fucking with you. You got real thin skin for a guy that likes to say things that you know will piss people off. I've actually already helped you and stuck up for you ass hole . Anyways, a good place for you to start is with Noaa's forcast discussions. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=CTP&issuedby=CTP&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off They aren't going to be as accurate as you expect them to be, but they will often tell you how confident they are in their forecast, and if you read it enough, you will also learn from it.

Good call . Expanded to include those areas.

You got a whole bull wagon full of words desparato, for a dude wrangler that's all hat and no cattle. I've dealt with sap sucking, yellow belly's like you before. A coward like you ain't worth a spitting dime’s worth of dogs meat. Why I reckon if it came to it, we can draw at high noon, unless you ain't got the guts partner.

Lightning should continue to be pretty easy to come by as long as the sun stays active. I didn't get directly affected by much convection tast year, but the little I did get and watched pass by didn't disappoint in the stroke department. Pretty much every month this winter delivered a powerful lightning event in PA and / or the MA. If it was up to me, I would personally make sure that every member of this wonderful thread is extremely satisfied in the stroke department multiple times this year. https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/24/9119/2024/ https://phys.org/news/2014-05-high-speed-solar-lightning-earth.html

July 25 2010 ?

SPC AC 271002 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0402 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D6/Tue - East Texas into the Mid/Lower Mississippi Valley... A compact mid-level low will translate east across the Southwest on Sunday which will result in lee cyclogenesis in the southern/central High Plains. As surface high pressure across the Midwest translates east, favorable low-level trajectories and strengthening flow across the Gulf and southern Plains will initiate significant moisture return across Texas. The initial mid-level low will weaken as it moves across the Plains and into the Mid-Mississippi Valley on D5/Monday. However, lee cyclogenesis will likely strengthen Monday afternoon as a larger scale trough approaches the southern Plains. Shortwave ridging will likely keep the dryline capped on Monday with continued moistening beneath the capping inversion as low-level moisture advection continues. By 12Z Tuesday, moisture recovery across the western Gulf should be complete with 70F dewpoints forecast near the Gulf Coast by both GFS and ECMWF ensembles. Confidence in the upper-level pattern is increasing as the ECMWF and EC Ensembles have been consistent with an amplified mid-level pattern across the central and southern Plains now for several consecutive runs. In addition, the GFS/GEFS has trended toward the more amplified ECMWF solution. As the confidence in the overall pattern increases, the confidence for a significant severe weather threat has also increased and 30% severe weather probabilities have been added from East Texas to central Mississippi. While specifics will remain uncertain until the event draws closer, the potential for multiple rounds of severe convection including supercells, clusters, and likely an eventual squall line will likely bring a threat for all severe weather hazards including strong tornadoes. ...D7/Wed - Carolinas into the Southeast... The ECMWF/ECS, which has been several days ahead of other extended guidance on with this upcoming pattern, has trended toward greater moisture penetration into the Southeast US and east of the Appalachians. Low to mid 60s dewpoints in the presence of a very strong wind field will support a large area of severe weather threat from the Southeast to the Carolinas and perhaps into parts of the Mid-Atlantic. Storm mode and specific hazards will be impacted by prior day convection and the overall evolution of the deepening surface low and associated cold front, but a great enough threat exists for 15% severe weather probabilities for D7/Wednesday. ..Bentley.. 02/27/2025