MDScienceTeacher

Why not?? I have a house down in rehoboth and we have seen more snow down there than in Elliott City the last 2 out of 3 winters. One year (I think 21-22) was one of the snowiest seasons they have seen in a very long time. It’s looking like that seasonal pattern is setting up again. the problem is clearly not cold air. It’s timing, overall precip and storm track. This is why it’s so frustrating when I have a normal person tell me “it just doesn’t snow like it used to, it’s doesnt get cold enough anymore”

If you look at ensemble members at this range during a time period where there is possible threat, they will inevitably show solutions like the one shown on that infamous 6Z run from last Wednesday. Nobody ever takes that a random ensemble member seriously at that range. But when the op shows it, people hold out hope, even if it never shows up again. I dont understand why people never learn.

So January was in the top 40 of all time: Looking at the January temperature data from 1871-2025, here are the top 40 coldest Januaries on record (from coldest to warmest): | Rank | Year | January Temp (°F) | |------|------|-------------------| | 1 | 1977 | 22.9 | | 2 | 1893 | 23.5 | | 3 | 1918 | 24.2 | | 4 | 1982 | 25.5 | | 5 | 1912 | 25.8 | | 6 | 1940 | 26.0 | | 7 | 1994 | 27.1 | | 8 | 1904 | 27.4 | | 9 | 2014 | 27.4 | | 10 | 1961 | 27.6 | | 11 | 2004 | 27.6 | | 12 | 1970 | 27.8 | | 13 | 1981 | 27.9 | | 14 | 2003 | 28.3 | | 15 | 1984 | 28.5 | | 16 | 1988 | 28.7 | | 17 | 1963 | 28.8 | | 18 | 1920 | 28.6 | | 19 | 1958 | 32.4 | | 20 | 1875 | 29.4 | | 21 | 1886 | 29.4 | | 22 | 1877 | 29.9 | | 23 | 1985 | 29.3 | | 24 | 2009 | 29.3 | | 25 | 1888 | 29.7 | | 26 | 1881 | 29.6 | | 27 | 1968 | 29.2 | | 28 | 1978 | 29.2 | | 29 | 1948 | 29.3 | | 30 | 1966 | 29.8 | | 31 | 1871 | 35.3 | | 32 | 1957 | 30.3 | | 33 | 2011 | 30.3 | | 34 | 2025 | 30.3 | | 35 | 1971 | 30.0 | | 36 | 1905 | 30.8 | | 37 | 1976 | 30.8 | | 38 | 2015 | 30.8 | | 39 | 1965 | 30.8 | | 40 | 1936 | 30.8 | After reviewing the data more carefully, here are the top 80 coldest winter seasons properly sorted from coldest to warmest: | Rank | Season | DJF Average (°F) | |------|-----------|------------------| | 1 | 1962-1963 | 29.2 | | 2 | 1903-1904 | 29.7 | | 3 | 1904-1905 | 29.9 | | 4 | 1917-1918 | 30.0 | | 5 | 1976-1977 | 30.7 | | 6 | 1977-1978 | 30.7 | | 7 | 1960-1961 | 31.0 | | 8 | 1875-1876 | 31.0 | | 9 | 1936-1937 | 31.1 | | 10 | 1919-1920 | 31.5 | | 11 | 1880-1881 | 31.6 | | 12 | 1895-1896 | 31.6 | | 13 | 1981-1982 | 31.9 | | 14 | 1876-1877 | 32.1 | | 15 | 1892-1893 | 32.1 | | 16 | 1965-1966 | 32.1 | | 17 | 1894-1895 | 32.3 | | 18 | 1890-1891 | 32.3 | | 19 | 1901-1902 | 32.4 | | 20 | 1993-1994 | 32.4 | | 21 | 1958-1959 | 32.5 | | 22 | 1959-1960 | 32.5 | | 23 | 2014-2015 | 32.5 | | 24 | 1898-1899 | 32.7 | | 25 | 1961-1962 | 32.7 | | 26 | 1877-1878 | 32.9 | | 27 | 1879-1880 | 32.9 | | 28 | 1911-1912 | 32.9 | | 29 | 1964-1965 | 32.9 | | 30 | 1967-1968 | 32.9 | | 31 | 1935-1936 | 33.0 | | 32 | 1888-1889 | 33.0 | | 33 | 1872-1873 | 33.2 | | 34 | 1963-1964 | 33.3 | | 35 | 1985-1986 | 33.3 | | 36 | 1970-1971 | 33.6 | | 37 | 1883-1884 | 33.6 | | 38 | 1999-2000 | 33.6 | | 39 | 1968-1969 | 33.7 | | 40 | 1881-1882 | 33.7 | | 41 | 1884-1885 | 33.7 | | 42 | 1933-1934 | 33.8 | | 43 | 1909-1910 | 34.0 | | 44 | 1980-1981 | 34.1 | | 45 | 1955-1956 | 34.2 | | 46 | 1966-1967 | 34.5 | | 47 | 1916-1917 | 34.5 | | 48 | 1906-1907 | 34.5 | | 49 | 1939-1940 | 34.7 | | 50 | 1986-1987 | 34.7 | | 51 | 1987-1988 | 34.8 | | 52 | 1950-1951 | 35.0 | | 53 | 2008-2009 | 35.1 | | 54 | 2024-2025 | 35.5 So definitely not the anywhere near coldest of all time, but somewhere around 80th percentile given ~200 years of data.

Right.. I dont understand the comments above. It was one of the coldest winters of all time. See above. 13 through 14 and 14 through 15 we’re definitely one of the coldest on record. but last year compared to others, was one of the coldest years. What is interesting however is that we’ve had some of the coldest winters on record in the last 25 years. It’s almost as if winters are becoming more severe and more cold. 24-25 38.6, 30.3, 37.6 13-14 39.6 27.4 32.9 14-15 39.9, 30.8, 25.3

I had an argument with several people about this over the weekend. Every single person said last winter was warm. For some reason LLMs seem to be bias on this also saying that 84-85 was much colder and that last year was only "Mildly Cold". I thought last year was one of the coldest on record. Based on NOAA data it was right up there with 84-85:

I am sorry.. i see that there are some rules around this now.. I should have known. I am gonna get away from the computer for a while and get some exercise. Let’s see what happens later today

Thats the point I am trying to make.. there is a precedent for this fail mode.. my apologies for the graphic. I can take it down.

It is important that people understand how things work here wrt to snow.

Right.. and I dont know if many people remember but boxing day had a WSW for 6-12 inches along the Baltimore Washington Corridor. The models were showing warning level snow up until start time. We were on the fringe then and we are on the fringe now. the biggest issue with boxing day was Dry air. We had 8 hours of virgo followed by 8 hours of snow tv. Also, boxing day hit the tidewater epically hard, went our to sea and then turned the corner, retrograded and hit NYC metro. It literally went around us.

How does this happen. Five days ago, I said its a rug pull and I wouldnt let my self get pulled in again.. I am hopeless. And I dont want to hear the crap about setting expectations or how 6 inches of snow is great or how we werent going to get a HECs to begin with.. I dont want to hear it. Because I have news for you.. the fringe is looking boxing day-ish. there I said it. And I dont think I can take another day of snow tv while sitting on an winter storm warning for 6-12 inches... waiting for it to accumulate as someone to our south is getting 20 inches of snow. The impossible happened. for the first time in model history (ever) the GFS was right and every other model was wrong.

Other than the ICON, if this verifies than it is a total and complete fail. Two days ago, we had every single model in our camp except for the GFS. and several people said said that there is no way in hell every model would cave to the GFS.. and here we fucking are. I cant believe what I am seeing.. how could this happen again?

Does anyone know how to create the animated png? That is what I really wanted to post.. I didnt have the patience to figure it out.

6z

Last three Euros (not including 6 z)

6-7 is a fail given what the models have been showing… let’s just leave it at 10

Really ?? I thought the ensembles have the same number of grid points as the op? And each member just gets initialized with slightly screwed data to find out how reliable the run is?

I know we have said this many times in the past but we could easily see a slight Trend northward as we move closer to the event. Especially with a more amped storm. I am loving where we sit right now.

Come on man. It can easily snow a foot here. This winter has proven that winters are far from over for our region!

Have we made it past the dreaded Pacific Dropsonde data injection point yet? I dont know if you guys remember but the last storm was a 10-15 inch deal before @stormtracker jinxed it with the storm thread and Dropsonde data. At any rate, she looks healthy to me:

The fact that one is showing up is telling imho. That’s a signature of every big storm in the mid range. You start seeing this high total bullseyes right at the pivot point for the storm. I am just glad we are seeing one. btw did you see the surface temps are at around 20 for these ccb panels.

Yeah it looks like all systems go but I just want to give @Jisomething to think about.

I have been lurking since Boxing Day.. and I know that there is something to it.. like whenever it finally snows is inevitably when someone is leaving town. Anyway I don’t leave til night time. As long as I get to watch it fall I am good! And if I get a delay because of a foot or more of snow so be it!! It’s a win win for me.

@Ji the one time ever in history that the gfs pulls off a coup would be now right?

Yeah I have a flight leaving for Puerto Rico… been planned for months now

Can't wait!