MDScienceTeacher

No

Not true.. you are here because your sick like the rest of us.

So I get stuck in Chicago overnight because i missed my connection due to the snowstorm. I thought… hey no problem I will a get a treat of a foot of snow before continuing on. well sure as shit as soon as my plane touched down the snow turned to rain, it never flips back and Chicago busts HARD with only 2 inches of slush on the ground.

Every male in my direct family watches the models and follows storms… I got them in to it and now I feel guilt about

I guess my retirement vacation just got a lot more interesting and I lucked in to a snow storm today. My flight to Hawaii was delayed because the connecting flight was out of Chicago. The connecting flight to Honolulu left already so I needed to rebook the same flight tomorrow morning. Getting ready now to take off (finally). Long story short: I will be spending the night at a Hilton in Chicago tonight. I am pretty sure it will be near Blizzard conditions with a fluffy 12 inches by morning:

Need Advice from a DC Local.. whats the deal with flying out of Reagan and long term parking? If I have a 7:00 AM flight and need to park long term, like do I need to park and then take a shuttle? Will shuttles be running at 4:00 AM? My Hawaii Retirement Celebration starts tomorrow and because of the Boeing 737 Max 9 grounding I am now flying out of Reagan.

Thank you for this! I had a boat in Bowley's Quarters during Isabell. The marina stayed up all night long retying lines to prevent the lines from sinking the boats. They did a really great job. the next morning I had to walk out on the pier that was still 2 feet under water just to get to my sailboat. That was a crazy event.

Completely different set up, but not nearly as impressive as the March 2019 event on the satellite view. Wondering how much hype this is compared to the past events. Today: March 2019:

Will this be the largest surge event since Isabell?

yeah the it should be much colder leading in to this period. Here was the 850 Temp Anomaly right before our weekend storm that was just a tad too warm: Now compare that to the upper level temps leading in to the Jan 16th period:

I agree with everything you say here other than the "something is amiss" comment. It is plenty cold, just not here. While a significant portion of the US has been experiencing above average temperatures and the current snow drought has been historic, it has also been really cold in other parts of the world during this same time period. In fact areas in Asia experienced record breaking cold last winter and this has continued in to Russia and Siberia this year. Here is an article from our old friend @Ian https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2023/12/06/siberia-russia-extreme-cold-asia/ We simply need to wait for our turn and I think, based on the recent guidance, our turn is right around the corner.

I guess you are being Sarcastic but I stopped looking at the RGEM a couple of years ago when it called for 60 inches of snow in Lancaster and I chased only to see 7 inches.

Logically what you are saying makes sense, but we have seen torch to a foot of snow many times before. The writing is on the wall for this and sure its gonna be too warm. But to say we need 3 weeks of pattern change just to get a chance of snow makes me think it is almost impossible for the MA to get a snow storm. Maybe you are saying this just in the context of this set up.

No. I have seen it so many times before. Usually in that exact time range too. This is why I commented on @psuhoffman 's post last night when he was telling @Deck Pic how much the models have improved and how within 6 days its usually just ironing out minor details. If this holds, the GFS was a major bust. For like 8 runs in a row the GFS was showing a text book MECS. Then all the sudden its QPF was cut in half while the track and intensity decreased dramatically. I cant tell you how many times I have something like this in the exact same time range. I feel like there is no safe lead time around here.

@Ji do you concur?

Yeah.. we will have to wait and see what happens tonight before we know for sure. One thing I dont buy is a weak/ moisture starved system. We have been in a pattern here over the last couple of months of vigorous subtropical jet energy resulting in higher end QPF totals and overall stronger/ more dynamic storms. Temperatures are a valid concern, however I really think that what we get QPF wise will be greater than what was shown in the 12 GFS.

Yeah and we have been burnt really bad on 96 hour leads where all the sudden the entire storm shifts 100 miles on all the guidance all at once. Heartbreak city. This is why I just refuse to go all in any more on anything even with a winter storm warning in effect.

But it’s a nino in early January with some really nice blocking over the North Atlantic. I think there is a lot more upside.

One thing of note is that the GFS doesnt allow the snow to get much north of NYC, with backend banding setting up over the mid atlantic: While the Euro is a quick thump to dryslot and it snows all the way up the coast: block I am not expert but given our previous experience with these types of setups, I feel like the GFS would be more plausible. I want to see this storm hit our latitude, stall, pivot and then get crushed by ULL rotating through, that would lead to >18 hours of snow.

That’s the ensemble too. That is a huge signal if I ever seen one. Just wow.

Right I was gonna say the same thing. We are in the 5 day range.

The differences in the 500 MB Height Anomaly North and East of us btw this mornings 6z run (where we get a nice snow storm) and yesterday's 12Z run (which shows a cutter) are significant. Notice how the low heights extend all the way in to the Hudson Bay on the 6z. My guess is this acts to strengthen the block, locking in HP to our north causing a tighter pressure gradient and keeping the upper level low from tracking too far north before spawning the surface coastal low. Quite different than the 12Z yesterday where you can see a upper level low pressure extending up in to Chicago (way too far north). 6Z today: 12Z yesterday:

The EPS looks to have more certainty in the storm track for this storm (members are more clustered together): GEFS:

I just learned that "NWS takes observations at 92 stations; 69 in the conterminous United States, 13 in Alaska, 9 in the Pacific, and 1 in Puerto Rico. " What other sources of data does NOAA feed in to the GFS? Especially on the west coast where there are only 9 stations in the pacific.

In addition, the cluster of lows on the individual members lot shifted south and west by about 75 miles: 12Z 18Z