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MDScienceTeacher

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  1. MDScienceTeacher
    I don’t think Baltimore city did as well… maybe 4-5 inches max
  2. MDScienceTeacher
    Yeah there was a band that set up over bwi and extended back in to Catonsville/ Elliott city . I got 7.5 (5 for the first part and 2.5 for the second part) which was more than I expected.
  3. MDScienceTeacher
    That’s one of the things that normies don’t understand. Most people I know are convinced that it just doesn’t snow around here any more.. I even saw a snowblower out there other day with a “free” sign on it. When I tell them that it has snowed plenty areas just to our south they look at me with confusion because in their mind snow is a thing of the past and entertaining the possibility that a lot of snow storms may have missed to our south is preposterous.
  4. MDScienceTeacher
    Oh.. I didnt realize that its him... I thought he moved away or something.
  5. MDScienceTeacher
    the issue is that big 1043 HP settling down out out of Canada. It is such a double edge sword. we need the cold air, but just enough not to suppress the wave.
  6. MDScienceTeacher
    Not sure if this will happen this time, but I remember set ups like this ending up wetter/ picking up more gulf moisture.
  7. MDScienceTeacher
    If this holds and it verifies just a little wetter/ more amped (and the surface temps stay cold enough for accumulation), it will be a warning level event for DC.
  8. MDScienceTeacher
    I thought the 6Z gave DC like 5 inches?
  9. MDScienceTeacher
    Are those dropsondes routine or do they only drop them during times of particularly active weather?
  10. MDScienceTeacher
    Holy Fuck
  11. MDScienceTeacher
    I had 7.5 and that was my high water mark since 2016.
  12. MDScienceTeacher
    IDK. The models have consistently shown a long duration moderate snow event for our area for the past 5 days. On the GFS, The 24 hour QPF totals have been btw 1 and 1.5 in the bullseye areas. Although its not HECs worthy, I feel like there is a little more boom potential.
  13. MDScienceTeacher
    Yeah I dont care if it is upper air/ long wave/ ensemble mean .. I just dont take anything serious outside of 180 hours... I just dont have the knowledge to take what the computer model is spitting out seriously. I am sure @psuhoffman does, so I will trust him. My kids watch a lot of weather youtube and there are guys who will literally step through every frame of the CFS out to six weeks and talk about it as if it is a forecast. Its a real disservice and not the intended use of those models.
  14. MDScienceTeacher
    The fact that this accounts for the first 7 inches in Baltimore completely calls the entire TT snow map calculation in to question.
  15. MDScienceTeacher
    What was similar was the run to run consistency and the global model agreement. Even if all of the ingredients werent actually on the table, the event certainly seemed to be one of those that lock in early and never waiver. Lets just hope this is the mid range slippage and things get back on track shortly.
  16. MDScienceTeacher
    We never get blend when we need the blend. More often than not one model is right and the other is wrong and we watch painstakingly as one moves toward the other. Can we please just get a blend here the one time?
  17. MDScienceTeacher
    I know it doesnt work this way, but t way I look at is every year we dont get a HECS.. the higher the chances the next year. It is Weenie statistics.
  18. MDScienceTeacher
    I mean it is almost like clock work. 83, 93, 96, 03, 10, 16, 2?
  19. MDScienceTeacher
    we do.. just like once every 7-9 years.
  20. MDScienceTeacher
    26-32 was particularly bad:
  21. MDScienceTeacher
    And 68-77:
  22. MDScienceTeacher
    We have had stretches like this before. This is BWI: 86-95
  23. MDScienceTeacher
    I guess it depends on where you are but I am in Ellicott City and its already snow.
  24. MDScienceTeacher
    I am not saying it is right by any means, but if you are looking for ways to fail, the NAM does look a lot like the Euro Op.
  25. MDScienceTeacher
    the last storm (Jan 6) it was spot on at 84 hours.
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